11:31pm – I’m signing off for the night. I’ll come back tomorrow to post wrap-ups of the results in South Australia and Tasmania tomorrow. You can read tonight’s commentary, as well as maps showing the result in South Australia, it’s available over the fold.
11:00pm – The ABC has now called every seat in South Australia, producing a result of 25 Labor, 18 Liberal and 4 independents. Looking at the results, however, it appears a bit early to call the seat of Bright, where the ALP is leading by 44 votes on the two-party preferred vote. The Liberal Party has gained four seats: Chaffey from Nationals MP and minister Karlene Maywald and the seats of Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood. The ALP has managed to hold on to four (five if you include Bright) seats that are safer than Morialta and Adelaide, where the ALP suffered swings of 12% and 15.2% respectively. Independents Geoff Brock, Kris Hanna and Bob Such have all won re-election, while in Mount Gambier independent candidate Don Pegler looks set to retain the seat previously held by retiring independent MP Rory McEwen. The following maps show the results across the state. The four Liberal gains are coloured in a darker blue then the 14 seats the party retained. Bright remains coloured white.
10:27pm – Almost 30% counted for the SA Legislative Council, and the ABC still predicts 4-4-GRN-FF-D4D. If you follow the preference count, Dignity for Disabled only just squeeze ahead of fifth Labor and fifth Liberal with a strong preference flow. At the last point, the Fair Land Tax Party preferences push Dignity for Disabled ahead of the ALP, and then they overtake the Liberal Party on ALP preferences.
10:14pm – The Tasmanian exit poll was actually remarkably accurate. Remember that it predicted 9 Labor, 9 Liberal, 4 Greens and 3 undecided. As it stands, we are in exactly that position, and the three undecided seats are going down to the same parties the poll predicted: Braddon is Libs vs Greens, Denison is Libs vs Greens vs Wilkie, Franklin is ALP vs Greens. As I see it, the most likely result will be Libs winning in Braddon, Greens in Denison and ALP in Franklin, producing a result of 10-10-5. Embrace the chaos!
10:08pm – Focus on Franklin. The Liberals have won two seats for Will Hodgman and either Jacquie Petrusma or Tony Mulder. The ALP and Greens have both won a single seat and are in competition for the last seat. I tend to think David O’Byrne will win the seat. He has 0.46 quota in his own right, whereas almost the entire Greens vote has been locked up with Nick McKim.
9:52pm – Here’s a theory – it is in the interests of the ALP and Liberal Party to prove how unstable and unwise it is to elect minority parliaments. They could easily reach an agreement with the Greens that will provide stability, but a situation where a party governs without the numbers in the Assembly proves their point that minority governments are unstable. Ironically this would see major parties rewarded for acting recklessly with power. “Either give us a majority, or we’ll really screw things up”.
9:45pm – Let’s clear something up about the Tasmanian result. No-one has won. It doesn’t matter who wins the most seats, or the most votes. Neither major party managed to get over 40% of the vote, and more than one in five voters have gone to the Greens. The only sensible way that the Tasmanian voters’ wishes could be respected would be through a coalition of two of the three parties. The idea that a party could have a claim to govern on 39% of the vote is completely ridiculous.
9:42pm – With 12.7% counted for the South Australian Legislative Council, the ABC is projecting 4 Labor, 4 Liberals, 1 Greens, 1 Family First and 1 for Dignity for the Disabled. The Dignity for the Disabled seat would go to their #2 candidate Kelly Vincent, due to the death of their lead candidate Dr Paul Collier earlier in the week.
9:40pm – Focus on Braddon – The Liberal Party are on 2.69 quotas, the ALP on 2.45 and the Greens on 0.82. You would have to think that in the north-west ALP voters would tend to favour the Liberals over the Greens. In addition, the third Labor candidate at the moment is sitting MP Brett Whiteley, who should attract strong Labor preferences.
9:24pm – Focus on Bass – the two Liberal seats look set to go to former federal MP Michael Ferguson and sitting state MP Peter Gutwein, and Kim Booth will be re-elected in the sole Greens seat. On the Labor side Michelle O’Byrne will safely win re-election but the contest for the second Labor seat is close between Brian Wightman, Scott McLean and Brant Webb.
9:20pm – SA crossbench results – Geoff Brock is on 44% of the primary vote in Frome and set to retain the seat. Meanwhile Nationals minister Karlene Maywald looks set to lose in Chaffey. Kris Hanna in Mitchell has managed to stay ahead of the Liberals on primary vote, but we’re yet to see if this will be enough to put him over the ALP on preferences. In Mount Gambier the Liberal Party is leading over new independent candidate Don Pegler 41-37 with no information on preferences.
9:16pm – More about Lyons – it’s clearly going to be a result of 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens, but the specific candidates are not that clear. Tim Morris will clearly retain the sole Greens seat. On the ALP side, Michael Polley is on 0.78 quotas, Rebecca White on 0.62 and sitting MP David Llewellyn on 0.61, with another 0.57 quotas for the other three Labor candidate. On the Liberal side, former leader Rene Hidding is on 0.70 quotas, Mark Shelton on 0.5, with Jane Howlett on 0.42 and James Playstead on 0.38.
8:53pm – There are quite a few sitting MPs staring at defeat from their own party colleagues. In Denison Lisa Singh and Graeme Sturges look set to lose their seats, with the ALP’s Scott Bacon gaining a seat. In nearby Franklin David O’Byrne is coming second out of the ALP candidates, beating sitting MPs Daniel Hulme and Ross Butler. In Braddon, sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley has been overtaken by new candidate Adam Brooks, and will be in a fierce race with the Greens for the final seat. New Labor candidate Rebecca White has overtaken sitting MP David Llewellyn in Lyons, although there is a very small gap between them, and it will be a close count.
8:48pm – In Mitchell, with 55% counted, Hanna is clearly outpolling the Liberals by 2.5%, and the first two booths have shown a two-candidate preferred figure for Hanna vs. ALP of 50.7%.
8:42pm – Antony Green on Twitter has commented that the ALP’s two-party preferred vote in South Australia is about 48.5%. Even still, they are on track for a majority. So much for South Australia’s ridiculous process of drawing boundaries to ensure a ‘fair’ result. No fairness in single-member constituencies.
8:38pm – The Greens & Wilkie are both picking up again in Denison. Greens on 1.57 and Wilkie on 0.51.
8:29pm – Nick McKim has pushed Franklin into a new position as the strongest seat for the Greens, with 29% for the Greens. Almost all of that went to McKim himself. If that flows to the other Greens they could still win an extra seat there.
8:24pm – With 51% counted in Denison, the Greens have only gained 0.5%. That doesn’t sound right, although it’s possible the general statewide Greens swing was swallowed up by Andrew Wilkie, and you’d expect a lot of that to flow back. The ALP is on 2.30 quotas, with the Liberals on 1.68 and the Greens on 1.48, with Andrew Wilkie on 0.49. On those numbers you’d think whoever out of Helen Burnet or Andrew Wilkie comes out on top should defeat the second Liberal.
8:17pm – Mike Rann appears to have won a third term in South Australia. The ABC is predicting 25 seats with one in doubt. They have projected that the ALP has lost Morialta, Adelaide and Norwood, and have actually gained Davenport.
8:07pm – With 6.7% counted Kris Hanna is slightly outpolling the ALP on primary votes in Mitchell. The Liberals have jumped into first place and Hanna is currently in the top two.
8:01pm – A large increase in vote counted in Denison has seen the Greens fall into third place. They could still win two seats with Andrew Wilkie’s preferences.
7:40pm – With 2% counted statewide, the Greens are up 1.7% to 8.2% in South Australia. It’s still early, and it’s the wrong house, but that’s about what you need to get a Legislative Council quota. Meanwhile the Greens are up a whopping 7% in Tasmania to about 23% with 4% counted.
7:37pm – Also in Denison, Wilkie is on 0.66 quotas. This puts him in fourth place on primaries behind Cassy O’Connor, Matthew Groom and David Bartlett, beating other contenders such as Scott Bacon and Helen Burnet.
7:34pm – Almost 8% has been counted in Denison, and the Greens are still coming first on 32.6%, followed by the Liberals on 28.8% and Labor on 26.9%. Scott Bacon is clearly the second-ranking Labor candidate, and #2 Greens candidate Helen Burnet has a decent vote in her own right which she will need to win a second seat for the Greens.
7:32pm – It appears that in Light, one of the ALP’s most marginal seats, the ALP have actually gained a swing.
7:30pm – In Franklin, 2.7% has been counted. The Greens are coming second with the Liberals coming first, but the Greens vote is highly concentrated on Nick McKim, suggesting that many of these votes may scatter after McKim is elected.
7:22pm – Almost 6% counted in Bass, and it’s a similar position to Lyons, with it clearly heading for a 2-2-1 split. The Greens are just short of 1.5 quotas with ALP only just over 2 quotas.
7:21pm – Over 4% has been counted in Lyons and it looks pretty clearly on track for a 2-2-1 split, with the Greens on 1.25 quotas.
7:13pm – More votes have been counted at Franklin, and the Greens are topping the poll there too. With 1000 votes counted, Nick McKim is on 34%. Interestingly third Greens candidate Wendy Heatley is outpolling second candidate Adam Burling.
7:01pm – A very small number of votes counted in Denison have the Greens in first place and Wilkie polling over 10%, but these numbers are so small as to be meaningless.
6:58pm – The ABC TV feed has now been replaced with something else and according to Twitter the election feed will begin at 8pm. But my internet is playing up such that I’ll have to stick to Sky News.
6:36pm – Rationalist in comments has posted a link to the ABC TV coverage of the Tasmanian election. Thank god, because Tim Gartrell gets on my nerves on Sky News.
6:24pm – Sky News have Tim Gartrell waffling on about a poll, since there’s really nothing to say so far.
6:18pm – In Denison, the exit poll predicts 2 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Green and the last seat a contest between Liberal, Greens and Wilkie.
6:17pm – Sky News poll predicts 2-2-1 in Bass. In Braddon 2-2 for majors with Libs v Greens for last seat.
6:15pm – Sky News is now reporting a Tasmanian exit poll, predicting 9 Labor, 9 Liberal, 4 Greens and 3 too close to call. Sky’s reporter says Andrew Wilkie is performing well in Denison. I assume that the three undecided seats are in Denison, Franklin and Braddon.
6:10pm – Sky News is reporting an exit poll in Labor’s nine most marginal seats in South Australia, with the Liberals winning 53-47 in those seats. That follows a South Australian Newspoll showing the Liberals leading 52-48.
6:02pm – I will be liveblogging this evening from Sydney. Times are AEDT, which is Sydney time and also Hobart time. Polls are closing in Tasmania now, followed by South Australia in half an hour.
I have heard a lot of criticism of the Tas system. Comments like its “weird” and “need for reform”. I don’t get it, this is a fantastic system, not perfect but infinitely better than what most of the country has to put up with.
Totally agree with you on your 8.42pm comment. With that 2PP logic says that the ALP in SA should not be in Government.
It looks like Maywald has definitely lost Chaffey.
There is a preference count in Mt Gambier on the ABC’s page, has Pegler marginally ahead.
Early upper house results with about 6% counted have the Greens on 5.7%. Presumably those are rural booths and that will improve.
Surprised the Greens are only polling 8.3% in the house and 5.7% in the LC (although only 5% counted).
Yes, when postals and pre-polls, which tend to be worse for the Greens, get counted, it will probably end up as less than 1% increase in the Greens lower house vote in SA, which would have to be considered a bit of a disappointing result, but SA is a tough state for the Greens because they were firmly in the Democrats shadow for so long and establishing their identity and credibility seems to be taking a little longer.
Incidentally, if I recall correctly, SA’s ‘fair’ redistribution process is courtesy of the Democrats.
my informants tell me Michael Wright might put his hand up for premier after Raan
The ABC now have projected upper house results up, and at this stage they’re saying 4 ALP, 4 Lib, 1 Green, 1 FF and Dignity for Disabled getting the last seat.
Antony pointing out a similar fallibility of the Hare Clark system: Libs getting more votes but not more seats.
@Joel, there’s a big difference between the distortions in SA and Tasmania. In SA those distortions give a majority to a party that lost. In Tasmania no party won a majority, it doesn’t really matter who gets more seats.
Nick C,
Interesting at this early stage with D4D. However, I think it will take a week to deteremine the 11th seat. It’s interesting that given the number of minor parties in the LC, no coverage is provided in the mainstream media.
@Imaginative Nickname
I sometimes think it worth toying with the idea of holding upper house (states and Senate) elections separately so they can get the media and public attention they deserve.
Indeed, Ben @9.45. That has been the intention in the past hasn’t it? Nothing has changed. Look for any opportunity to squeeze the Greens into a controversial position. Btw, don’t you think Mckim spoke too long?
Meanwhile… Listening to McKim’s speech. I’ve never heard him speak before except sound-bites, and I’m very impressed.
Yes, Joel, he probably did speak a little too long, though election night speeches from leaders can often go on and on.
Yeah I remember Rudds victory speech. Yawn-fest.
I seem to remember Beazley speaking for ages once, presumably 1998.
Go chaos! Hope we can have it in NSW after this time next year.
Very surprised by Lomax Smith suffering a 16% swing. The CBD is dramatically increasing it’s population and you would expect the seat to contract in area and become more lefty, ala Melbourne and Sydney. She was also a former Lord Mayor.
Okay so the wine is starting to go to my head now. A couple of comments. First. based on what I see, I think Grns will not win either Braddon or 2nd in Denison. My intuition is therefore thinking 10/9/4/1.. Gratz Wilkie if it does come to fruition.
Second comment. you gotta love the Hare Clarke system. So much more entertaining and I think more democratic. Imagine how good it would be in NSW!
Third, I feel sorry for Mckim in a way. Any shit that happens in Tasmania now will be blamed on him. If he can come out of this term looking as good as he does now he is an excellent politician and I look forward to when he enters the Senate.
Good night. Thanks Ben for the coverage.
Nick McKim will get plenty of Liberal preferences. It may not flow down the rest of the Greens ticket very much, but it might be enough for a second Green in Franklin. I’m actually thinking Wilkie might beat Greens to 5th spot in Denison due to more potential for preferences from every party.
I almost tipped Adelaide to go. Looks like I got 6 seats wrong, not very good.
And I think Braddon is still a chance for Greens. They have a pretty good lead into 5th spot.
Isn’t it optional preferential? And is there a minimum number numbers they must pencil in on the ballot? If its only 1, my experience suggests that preferences are very minimal.
So polls in SA have consistently had the Greens in double-digits, but it seems it will be plateauing out at around 6.5% in the upper house.
From memory it’s limited preferential, maybe at least 5.
There’s a further update in Denison which looks like good news for Wilkie.
Game set match?
Voters must allocate as many preferences as there are vacancies, so that’s five at this election. Many won’t bother voting beyond one party. In Denison though, if Wilkie drops out all his ballots will have at least 4 prefs directed elsewhere. You can put the bulk of Socialist Alliance ballots in the Green piles to, FWIW.
With 43% counted for the LC, I think it’s pertinent to see the difference between D4D, Dems, and Wunderluch being excluded
Dignity for Disability 1.42%
Australian Democrats 1.02%
Winderluch 1.75%
Everyone on the SA coverage is still talking about the result being in doubt and possible hung parl – come off it, Labor has won.
But I refuse to listen to Mike Rann’s speech – I can’t stand him, so will turn it off now.
Greens will probably catch up to Wilkie on SA prefs alone. Greens do well on absentee, but not so well on pre-poll and postal (although that’s not always true). They’ll almost certainly overtake Wilkie in the race for 5th on primaries. It’s just a question of where those few Labor prefs go. It’s too close to call, Wilkie has a chance and certainly shouldn’t concede yet.
I was wondering how long it would take for the maps…
There are two seats where the Greens primary vote increased by 5% or more, Giles and Elder. Both with the benefit of the donkey vote, and the former, with an 8.7% increase, apparently being the seat where a booth worker died yesterday.
I’ve now updated the colours on the South Australian map which you can download from the Maps page.
What? You’re not even going to wait for Bright?
Good on you Ben for excellent coverage, particularly the detailed analysis of Tasmania.
Looking forward to the UK election next.
Ben, do I get a prize for the closest SA prediction? A Tallyroom T-shirt perhaps?
I think you deserve a prize Hamish, pretty good effort getting those really tough ones of Light and D4D in the upper house.
A little surprised Family first preferenced One Nation and the Shooters party before any major or minor party. Won’t help them convince the electorate that they are not extremist.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2010/guide/gtv.htm?ticket=lc_k
Lomax Smith was an excellent Lord Mayor but has lost a lot of support from progressive voters and crucially the ‘Doctor’s wives’. When ‘Jane’ joined Labor she stopped commenting on social issues that are of particular importance to inner city voters. Thus the BIG revenge vote!
Atkinson is gone now as Attorney-General and Jay Weatherill is going to challenge Foley as Deputy Leader. So many people are tired of Conservative religious Labor! Beware Rudd because voters are willing to sacrifice you to the arch-conservatives to get progressive Labor Back!
Yeah, stepping back for a moment, my big question is, where have all the progressive voters gone? Clearly they haven’t all gone to the Greens (esp in the upper house). Is that the answer then that progressive voters have decided since there’s no big difference they may as well vote Liberal and punish Labor for selling them out?
Makes SA only state where Libs hold inner city seats: Adelaide & Norwood (although I know they include equivalent of Toorak & Vaucluse). Maybe Redmond did well with ‘liberal’ voters.
I’m disgusted with the Labor Party’s dirty election tricks in South Australia. Handing out voting information to Family First voters, persuading them to give preferences to Labor. I thought that this was illegal. I think the AEC needs to step in an draw a line in the sand on this so the rules are clear-cut. I’m sure they already are clear-cut but the ALP just can’t help themselves when it comes to their filthy little deceiving tricks. In my opinion, the Labor Party is the party of deceit and this is far from the fundamentals of democracy.
It is Federally since 2004. What the laws are at a state level I couldn’t say.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2010/guide/brig.htm
Chloe Fox 2 votes ahead as of Thursday Morning (25/3). Recount anyone?
No, no, no, just give her the seat – I don’t wanna get another one wrong!
Btw, the ABC site doesn’t seem to be updating the Tasmanian results – for anyone who hasn’t found out elsewhere you can go to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission site for the latest figures there:
http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/26/2856789.htm?section=justin
Fox supposedly 144 votes ahead now.
Love the title, ‘Fox still in the hunt.’
Heard a report earlier that Mike Rann is back to work ‘signing his first executive order’. WTF? Since when does a Premier sign ‘executive orders’?
Seth,
Power corrupts. More often than not, those clinging to power are those engaging in deceit. Dodgy pamphlets, gerry mandering, restricting liberties are amongst a littany of other means. Yes, Labor’s antics in Tas and SA are deplorable, but examples can be equally given for the Liberals and the Nationals.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_pamphlet_scandal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joh_Bjelke-Petersen
And Kris Hanna loses in Mitchell to bring Labor’s total to 26 seats, losing just 2.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/29/2858495.htm?site=news
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