It’s taken some time as I’ve waited for some necessary data, but I’ve now compiled my own margin estimates for the 59 state electorates in Western Australia following the recent redistribution.
I won’t lay claim to originality: both William Bowe and Antony Green have previously published their own estimates. Mine are very similar with a few exceptions where my figures differ from one or both of them. I’m not saying mine are necessary better than others but I thought I should publish them as they will be used as the basis for my maps and tables at the time of the election.
The table of margins is below the fold, along with a map.
| Electorate | Old boundaries | New boundaries | Incumbent party |
| Albany | 5.1 | 5.9 | ALP vs NAT |
| Armadale | 25.2 | 25.2 | ALP vs LIB |
| Balcatta | 5.8 | 7.9 | ALP vs LIB |
| Baldivis | 7.2 | 3.7 | ALP vs IND |
| Bassendean | 21.5 | 21.7 | ALP vs LIB |
| Bateman | 9.5 | 8.2 | LIB vs ALP |
| Belmont | 11.4 | 11.4 | ALP vs LIB |
| Bicton | 2.9 | 3.5 | ALP vs LIB |
| Bunbury | 10.8 | 11.1 | ALP vs LIB |
| Burns Beach | 2.5 | 4.3 | ALP vs LIB |
| Butler | 19.4 | 20.5 | ALP vs LIB |
| Cannington | 18.1 | 17.9 | ALP vs LIB |
| Carine | 9.0 | 10.6 | LIB vs ALP |
| Central Wheatbelt | 22.6 | 23.5 | NAT vs ALP |
| Churchlands | 13.2 | 11.7 | LIB vs ALP |
| Cockburn | 15.9 | 13.7 | ALP vs LIB |
| Collie-Preston | 14.7 | 13.6 | ALP vs LIB |
| Cottesloe | 13.3 | 14.1 | LIB vs ALP |
| Darling Range | 5.8 | 6.0 | ALP vs LIB |
| Dawesville | 0.7 | 0.9 | LIB vs ALP |
| Forrestfield | 9.4 | 9.4 | ALP vs LIB |
| Fremantle | 23.1 | 23.1 | ALP vs LIB |
| Geraldton | 1.3 | 1.3 | LIB vs ALP |
| Hillarys | 4.1 | 0.1 | LIB vs ALP |
| Jandakot | 1.0 | 2.0 | ALP vs LIB |
| Joondalup | 0.6 | 1.0 | ALP vs LIB |
| Kalamunda | 2.5 | 2.4 | ALP vs LIB |
| Kalgoorlie | 6.2 | 6.2 | LIB vs ALP |
| Kimberley | 13.0 | 13.0 | ALP vs LIB |
| Kingsley | 0.7 | 1.2 | ALP vs LIB |
| Kwinana | 18.1 | 21.0 | ALP vs LIB |
| Landsdale | 16.7 | 9.7 | ALP vs LIB |
| Mandurah | 18.0 | 18.1 | ALP vs LIB |
| Maylands | 17.9 | 17.9 | ALP vs LIB |
| Midland | 13.0 | 12.8 | ALP vs LIB |
| Mirrabooka | 19.2 | 23.5 | ALP vs LIB |
| Moore | 13.9 | 14.7 | NAT vs LIB |
| Morley | 11.4 | 12.5 | ALP vs LIB |
| Mount Lawley | 4.0 | 4.0 | ALP vs LIB |
| Murray-Wellington | 1.4 | 1.8 | ALP vs LIB |
| Nedlands | 8.3 | 8.1 | LIB vs ALP |
| North West Central | 9.5 | 10.1 | NAT vs ALP |
| Perth | 11.8 | 12.6 | ALP vs LIB |
| Pilbara | 2.3 | 2.3 | ALP vs NAT |
| Riverton | 4.4 | 4.4 | LIB vs ALP |
| Rockingham | 23.4 | 23.6 | ALP vs LIB |
| Roe | 14.4 | 13.6 | NAT vs LIB |
| Scarborough | 5.6 | 5.8 | LIB vs ALP |
| South Perth | 7.1 | 7.2 | LIB vs ALP |
| Southern River | 7.9 | 7.9 | ALP vs LIB |
| Swan Hills | 14.5 | 11.9 | ALP vs LIB |
| Thornlie | 15.8 | 15.8 | ALP vs LIB |
| Vasse | 14.7 | 14.7 | LIB vs ALP |
| Victoria Park | 16.5 | 16.3 | ALP vs LIB |
| Wanneroo | 7.3 | 8.9 | ALP vs LIB |
| Warnbro | 23.7 | 23.7 | ALP vs LIB |
| Warren-Blackwood | 13.4 | 12.9 | NAT vs ALP |
| West Swan | 17.1 | 19.2 | ALP vs LIB |
| Willagee | 15.5 | 18.1 | ALP vs LIB |
FYI the current MP for Geraldton (Ian Blayney) has switched from the Liberals to the Nationals.
Darling Range also changed due to the by-election. Alyssa Hayden should be pretty safe there.
There’s a few retirements as well, if you’re keeping track. Ben Wyatt (ALP, Vic Park), Peter Watson (ALP, Albany), Mick Murray (ALP, Collie-Preston), Mike Nahan (Lib, Riverton), and Robin Chapple (Green, Mining and Pastoral). Vic Park and Riverton are safe enough, but the other three will be interesting – those MP’s are taking big personal votes with them, particularly Peter Watson.
Peter Watson is very popular…… but do people in a country seat vote for a say in government. The margin in Collie- preston is big so labor should keep the seat.
Comments are closed.