Following yesterday’s prediction of the results in Saturday’s Tasmanian election, I have now put together a prediction of the result in South Australia. I haven’t followed South Australia as closely as I have with Tasmania, so I have mostly made the changes based on the pendulum. The hardest choices were for the seats of Chaffey and Mitchell. I’ve predicted that Mitchell’s incumbency should allow him to overcome difficult circumstances. In contrast, I’m predicting that Nationals MP Karlene Maywald will be brought down by her connection to the Rann government in a conservative rural electorate. In addition, I have predicted that the ALP will lose Light, Mawson, Norwood, Newland and Morialta. I also have put Mount Gambier as a Liberal gain, due to the retirement of sitting independent MP Rory McEwen.
This would produce a result of 23 Labor, 21 Liberal and 3 independents. This would reflect the pattern of the 1989, 1997 and 2002 elections when no party managed a majority and independents supported the larger minority. On these numbers the ALP would probably scrape by, but would be vulnerable to by-elections or defections.
I have posted two maps showing how this changes the electoral map. The seven seat gains are coloured in light blue to distinguish them from the seats held by the Liberals already.
Barring Newland, great minds think alike.
Mine’s very similar, just three differences. I give Labor Hartley instead of Newland. I think Trish Draper’s baggage will stop her winning. I also think Maywald will narrowly hold on in Chaffey. In 2006 there were similar expectations that she’d be defeated, but she romped in with over 50% of the primary vote. Presumably her vote will drop this time, but she has a fair bit of lee-way, and I tend to think the advantage of incumbency, being arguably greater in a regional seat, will just be enough for her to scrape back in. Tough call but.
Agree on Mitchell. Hanna has had a full term now as an independent to establish himself, and as with Brock in Frome, I tend to think that there are enough voters unconvinced about both major parties that they’ll plump for the ‘safe’ option of the sitting independent.
I will admit though that I haven’t been paying much attention to the campaign, so I think I’ll be doing well if I only get 3-4 wrong. I’ve taken about the same level of interest as I did with the 2006 Victorian election, where I really just read Antony and William’s guides and went with my gut feeling essentially from that. It was something of a fluke that I only got 2 seats wrong, I think, hopefully it works just as well this time.
Oops, I mean I give the Liberals Hartley instead of Newland.
I’ll predict the Libs to pick up Mawson, Norwood, Morialta and Mount Gambier, Labor to win Mitchell, Maywald to hold Chaffey and and Brock to increase his margin in Frome. In an upset I’ll tip Labor to hold Light.
Total: Labor 25, Lib 18, Nat 1, Indi 3. An outlier, but I just can’t see why the good people of SA would elect the Libs at this time. (Note: I felt the same before the WA election, but I think that SA is less of a naturally liberal state).
Are any of you likely to change your minds once you’ve seen the newspoll?
I agree with your prediction Ben – 23/21/3 – and I think Brock will support Rann on the floor of the House giving Rann his 24th vote. Whether the caucus does the same though is moot.
All three independents to retain, Nationals retaining Chaffey and in a surprise, gaining Flinders, Liberals gaining Light, Norwood, Newland, Hartley, and Morialta
Leaving (Lab 1 seat majority)
Labor 24
Libs 18
Nats 2
3 Independents
Legislative Council
Libs 4
Lab 4
Greens 1
Family First 1
and in a massive surprise Dems 1 with Green and Labor preferences
Libs will gain Light, Mawson, Norwood, Newland, Hartley, Morialta and/or Bright from Labor. They will also gain Frome.
This yields:
Liberal + Nat: 22-23
Labor: 21-22
Ind: 3
A Liberal minority government will result.
Re, Mt. Gambier – you can lock in the Libs. Popular local mayor standing for the Libs, but the ALP candidate wasn’t even known until a month ago. It’s a conservative-minded rural electorate, and I’ve yet to meet anyone who has a good word to say about the retiring independent MP. A backlash against the ALP is clearly on the horizon.
@Imaginative Nickname
Democrats winning a Legislative Council seat ?
That would be a Massive Turnaround
I should working on last-minute election preparation, not crystal balling tomorrow’s result! So I will make it snappy.
ALP loss, LIB gain: LIGHT, MAWSON, MORIALTA, NEWLAND.
IND loss, LIB gain: MT GAMBIER
NAT retain: CHAFFEY
IND retain: MITCHELL, FISHER, FROME
ALP 28 5 = 19
NAT 1 – 0 = 1
IND 4 < 1 = 3
ALP to form majority government. Midnight Saturday prediction. Rann home to bed, Foley to young blondes in Hindley St Karaoke bar. Me somewhere nearby making tipsy pollyannaish declarations about the future of the Greens.
Disenchantment with ALP won't be deep enough to move the votes needed to Liberal in the inner east seats of NORWOOD (grn prefs give it to ciccarello) and HARTLEY (portolesi popular enough). Hanna in MITCHELL is a brilliant IND, voters would be mad to punt him, now also has front page of Addy endorsement from Mr X who is handing out HTVs for him.
Upper house
4 ALP 4 LIB 1 GRN 2 FF 1
Love your work Mr Raue!
I almost agree with Rationalist, except labor will hold Newland for certain due to Draper, as Nick pointed out. I have given the libs to pick up Light, Mawson, Norwood, Hartley, Morialta from the ALP and probably Bright. To also pick up Mount Gambier, Chaffey from Maywald and against opinion here Frome from Brock – he is only in danger as the libs are in with a shout tomorrow. This gives the libs 23, labor 22 and 2 independents.
The key for me will be Morialta, Bright and Hartley. Whoever wins 2/3 of these seats will win the election.
Oops. I fluffed my table like a dodgily hasty roll out of pink batts.
Correct the hansard plz.
ALP 28 5 = 19
NAT 1 – 0 = 1
IND 4 < 1 = 3
Hope that clears it up!
Fluffed again. It wasn’t me, it was this text box. Will try communicate it another way. ALP 24 (down 4), LIB 19 (plus 5), NAT 1 (steady), IND 3 (down 1).
Terrible maiden post by me. Sorry.
Can’t see the Greens winning 2 LC seats.
I’m sticking with 4 Lab, 4 Lib, 1 Green, 1 FF and 1 Dignity for the Disabled off just 1% of the vote, though the final seat could be a number of parties, other leading chances Winderlich or a fifth Lib.
2 LC seats to GRN. I’ve gone all pollyanna a day early. Maybe. Oh well. It’s like when you tell everyone the European horse has the staying ability to win the Melbourne Cup then its legs pack up not being used to the firmer going at Flemington. No one hopefully remembers you said it. (or wrote it on a blog)
I’ve checked over Simon Jones, his fetlocks are fine, looking ok in the coat, relaxed in the mounting yard, not known to be fractious in the barriers. So yeah, I’m sticking with it 🙂
Question.
Is it possible for Greens to fall short of the primary votes required for 1 quota, then win 2 LC seats after preference distributions?
Put another way, do the Greens need to get 8. (whatever a quota is?) plus a little bit clear of that on primaries, in order to stay in the game for the second quota?
Be good to know the facts on this before I start getting pseudo-psephy and out of my depth in election night party conversation 🙂
[Put another way, do the Greens need to get 8. (whatever a quota is?) plus a little bit clear of that on primaries, in order to stay in the game for the second quota?]
Yes. They will need to be above one quota (1/12th or 8.33%) to have a shot at a second seat. In reality, given preference flows, they will need 12% at the absolute minimum for a shot at a second seat.
Thanks for clearing that up for me Hamish.
On a sombre tangent I just now got some existentially cruel news.
A woman who was down to be handing out for the greens at a polling booth in my electorate of Torrens, changed her mind last week and answered the call to go up to Coober Pedy in the far north and help out there.
She was tragically killed in a car accident en-route.
I’m going to have a gin now and think about that.
Tony,
You always have to back one upset, admittedly this is massive and based on the wonders of preferential voting. The first time I plugged in my % predictions to Antony Greens LC calculator with the Dems receiving 2.5%, they pulled the 11th seat.
Basically, I predict Greens will poll over a quota with the remainder moving to the Greens and providing .5 of a quota. If with the help of a minor parties that can move to about .6 or .7 of a quota and find themselves above either Labor or Liberal, they will use their preferences to get over the line. Improbably, of course!
Family First, No Pokies (v1), the DLP, and many more have benefied from the preferential systems in the LC and the senate, whilst receiving around 1 – 3% of the vote.
independents/nationals will be wiped out. all will go back to liberal, except mitchell, going back to labor. hartley, light, mawson, morialta, newland and norwood all gained by libs from labor. bright on a knife edge, but lab to retain.
result: LIB 24, LAB 23
upper house: LIB 6, LAB 4, GREENS: 1
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