The ACT is currently redrawing its electoral boundaries for the local Legislative Assembly, and as previously discussed there are not a lot of options for how the boundaries can be drawn.
The first round of submissions have now closed, with ten individuals and five organisations making submissions. The Liberal Party and Labor Party each made submissions.
It’s interesting to look at the two major parties’ proposals to get a sense of what is likely to happen. Interestingly, both parties agreed on almost all boundaries, with only one small change in southern Canberra affecting two out of the five electorates.
The above map shows the existing boundaries as used for the 2016 election.
Both Labor and Liberal proposed moving two suburbs (Evatt and McKellar) in northern Belconnen from Yerrabi into Ginninderra. This deals with Yerrabi growing faster than Ginninderra due to rapid growth in the Gungahlin area.
Neither party made any suggestions to change the northern boundary for the central electorate of Kurrajong.
The southern electorate of Brindabella has also fallen below the population quota, and both major parties proposed an identical change to bring this electorate up to quota, shifting the eastern half of the suburb of Kambah from Murrumbidgee into Brindabella.
The only difference between the parties is on the border between the south-western electorate of Murrumbidgee and the central electorate of Kurrajong.
The loss of eastern Kambah requires a boost to Murrumbidgee. Labor has proposed moving Red Hill into Murrumbidgee, while the Liberals have proposed shifting the neighbouring suburb of Deakin. Either suburb produces an almost identical quota balance.
There is no guarantee that the boundaries will follow these suggestions, but the very similar proposals do suggest that most of these changes are likely to be implemented.
My decade old memory of Canberra would suggest Red Hill may be more likely to vote Liberal while Deakin may be more neutral or ALP advantage however I don’t know if stereotypes really hold true in Canberra. Would be interesting to see the polling booth figures for those two suburbs from last election to see if there is any benefit to either party.
According to the Elections ACT website, the Liberal primary vote was 43.7% in Red Hill and 57.2% in Deakin (although I assume that includes a lot of voters who actually live in Forrest). So it seems the Liberal vote in Murrumbidgee will benefit more from shifting Deakin, although it will also hurt them more in Kurrajong (where they’re already below two quotas).
I think they should shift Red Hill into Murrumbidgee because it’s more similar to the adjacent Murrumbidgee suburbs of Garran and O’Malley (whereas Deakin is more like the adjacent Kurrajong suburbs of Yarralumla and Forrest).
Moving Red Hill into Murrumbidgee and replacing some of Kambah is likely to assist the Greens in Murrumbidgee as their vote in Red hill is about 13% as opposed to about 8% in Kambah
I’m surprised that the Greens do better in Red Hill than Kambah, I never really thought of Red Hill as much of a Greens sort of area. The biggest unknown in Murrumbidgee is probably how people in Molonglo Valley vote, seeing as that area’s changed a lot since the last election.
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