Gordon Brown had a pretty awful year, with losses of safe seats in by-elections and massive poll leads for David Cameron’s Conservatives. But since the beginning of the global financial crisis, Brown’s seemingly successful attempts to get his plans adopted by other western countries, and his recovery in the Glenrothes by-election, Gordon Brown has appeared to be back in the game. This has been reflected in the latest Guardian/ICM poll, which has reduced the previous 45-30 lead for the Tories to a bare 5-point lead, with the Conservatives on 38, Labour on 33 and the Liberal Democrats up one to 19.
Julian Glover at the Guardian predicts that this could be the trigger for an early election in 2009. Since Brown cancelled plans in late 2007 for an early election, it has been expected that his long-suffering government would push out the next election to mid-2010, the latest time to hold a general election. Yet it appears that Brown’s handling of the financial crisis has given him a window to have a shot at holding onto power. The latest poll would suggest Labour coming out as the largest party in a hung parliament, which would likely lead to a second election not much later, and would likely resemble Canada’s recent history, which saw a Prime Minister replaced by his finance minister who then lost his government’s majority and forced to an early election.
However, the point remains that, while Brown could call an election any day, it remains hard to see him staying in power, and a late election in 2010 remains the most likely outcome.
