The latest Newspoll on NSW state politics has the Labor Party collapsing to levels even lower than seen in the last century. With the Coalition on 43%, Labor on 26%, the Greens on 14% and Others on 17%. The 2PP figures are at 59-41 in favour of the Coalition, although with Labor on such a low level and the third-party vote on 31%, two-party-preferred calculations lose all meaning.
Compared to the last Newspoll in September-October, Labor’s vote has fallen another 3 points from 29, which has largely gone to the Greens, who have recovered to 14% after falling to 11% in the last poll. The Coalition has gained 1%, at the expense of the “others” vote, which fell from a peak of 18%.
The last poll was the first after Nathan Rees took over from Morris Iemma as Labor leader and Premier. Although Rees performed better with his personal figures, the poll was a new low for the ALP in regards to voting intention, with Labor falling below 30% for the first time and the 2PP swing from 52-48 to 56-44 in favour of the Coalition. Rees had a much lower disapproval rating and returned Labor to the lead in the Preferred Premier stakes. But those figures have been wiped out. Rees is up to 47% disapproval, almost at the 52% level Iemma polled in the first poll of 2008. Barry O’Farrell was the first Liberal leader to take the lead in Preferred Premier this decade in the last two polls of Iemma’s leadership, and he has returned to that role.
So what does it mean? Labor’s support has fallen to record lows and they are on track for a massive defeat. Antony Green has calculated that, according to the pendulum, the poll would give the Coalition 57 seats, a solid majority in the Assembly.
The polling figures also suggest that many previously safe Labor seats will be vulnerable to the Greens and Independents. The Greens are solidly polling a consistent 13-14% in five of the six polls this year, which would give them a fifth seat in the Legislative Council and puts them within range of winning Balmain and Marrickville in the Legislative Assembly. With 18% support for others, you would expect that more Labor seats in the Hunter and Illawarra in particular would be vulnerable to left-leaning independents, which could reduce the ALP to a rump.
Another remarkable trend is that the Greens are now polling more than half the Labor vote, with the Liberal-Labor margin now larger than the Labor-Green margin. The Greens aren’t going to overtake Labor in the next three years, but it underlines Labor’s dire position. There is a long way to run for this government, in which they could bounce back, although trends suggest that the party continues to fall further. We will have to see if Rees can turn his government around, and how the 2010 federal election impacts on NSW, and it’s far too early to make predictions.
More analysis can be found at Poll Bludger and Pollytics.
You know, in my fantasies I always expected Labor’s rightward shift to turn the Liberals into a rump with The Greens taking up space on the left.
Now they’re getting stuck in the middle.
But Federally, I think there’s a chance of the the first scenario. Labor winning seats at the expense of the Liberals and Greens at the expense of Labor.
I can’t wait until the next election, I almost wish this government would put itself out of its misery. Labor has not got my vote in Newcastle, a now marginal (~1.5% margin) seat (previously safe Labor) due to competition from local independents. One way or another, I will be preferencing wisely when I vote.
Although I am critical of the Greens on some issues I am favourable to them in the upcoming election, in addition to local independents (especially over the Liberals).
G’day Ben,
You’d know much more about NSW antics than me in sunny WA, and I’m curious. Apart from the obvious two (Balmain, Marrickville), are there any seats in particular the Greens are having a serious go at winning, or at least think they can? I’m trying to put truthiness behind the scuttlebutt I see on Poll Bludger. y’see. I know there’s a federal and Victorian election before then, but I’m licking my lips at this ‘un… it’s kinda like watching Geelong demolish a team by 20 goals.
Yeah, I meant to ask William why he extrapolated 4 Greens seat from the last poll, at the moment Balmain and Marrickville are the only shots for 2011.
In the medium term there is a second tier of seats that could be winnable, including Sydney once Clover Moore retires, as well as Ballina, Blue Mountains, Coogee, North Shore, Newcastle and Keira.
In terms of chances, the order would be:
1. Balmain
2. Marrickville
3. Melbourne State
4. Melbourne Federal
5. Fremantle
6. Sydney Federal
7. Richmond
8. Northcote
9. Brunswick
10. Grayndler Federal
Ha, nice – you’re ranking Freo above most of the Vic state seats. It’s one I didn’t pick Greens doing that well in at the last election here (not nearly winning, anyway), but I suppose it was bound to happen eventually. If they’re smart down there, they’ll convince Peter Tagliaferri (current Freo mayor, much more popular / less corrupt than most mayors) to run next time… he’ll win on the primary vote. Not sure if he’s interested in state politics, and 2013’s a long way away, but there’s your hot tip for the night. 🙂
I know that WA local government is much less partisan, but what’s his politics?
The point remains that WA is probably the best state for the Greens where there is single-member electorates. There is more shots in Sydney and Melbourne because there are more seats (thus electorates cover a smaller proportion of the state) plus Greens support is more concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne than Perth. But it’s not surprising that a WA seat would become a chance for the Greens.
Re. Oz, it could go either way, but I think it will be a bit of both, with both major parties losing support, although the Liberals appear in real danger of being relegated to third place in the ACT and Tasmania. I’d much prefer to see Labor disappear than the Liberals. An ALP on the right-wing side of the spectrum (rather than straddling the centre) is truly scary. I tend to think their support base, rhetoric, history and organisation can only tolerate so much of a shift to the right before snapping.
Tagliaferri’s fairly progressive – often tangles with the state govt over things like lead exports and freeways. Website here if you’re interested.
You’re right about the lack of partisanship – councillors are often members of parties, but don’t usually run as such in council elections. In fact, local govt’s pretty low key in general. It’s something that differentiates between here and Vic / NSW: there aren’t councils like Yarra or Leichardt where Greens can sit as such. I like it like that, but it does make it harder for Greens to break through. Makes it all the more surprising how well they did all over Perth recently. (Repeat that in Sydney and you’ll have 15% votes in places like Bankstown and Penrith.)
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