8:56 – Nothing has changed in Braddon, Longman and Mayo. The sitting MPs are on track for increased majorities. We are starting to get voting figures from the two western by-elections. At the moment the Greens are on track for a distant second in Fremantle, with a chance of falling into third place behind the Liberal Democrats (presumably favoured by confused Liberal voters). We have no preference data from Perth. The Greens are doing quite well but still trail Labor on primary votes.
7:44 – I’m going to refrain from updates for a while, since it seems reasonably clear that the three sitting MPs in Braddon, Longman and Mayo are on track for re-election with increased majorities.
6:34 – Just after posting I saw a second booth has reported. Garland’s vote is down to 20%.
6:31 – We have one booth in Braddon and it’s produced swings against both major party candidates. Independent Craig Garland is on 26% of the vote. Of course it’s far too early to extrapolate but this suggests he will do well. It’s worth noting that Garland did much better in the more rural west of Braddon in the March state election. Presumably this booth is in his better areas and it doesn’t suggest a big result for him in Burnie or Devonport.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the seats of Braddon and Longman. Polls will close in Mayo in half an hour, with Perth and Fremantle following in two hours from now.
As I mentioned in my earlier post, I’m at a friend’s wedding tonight so these posts will be a bit more sparse than normal. I’ll try to bring you quality over quantity, and there will definitely be some maps before the night is done.
Braddon & Mayo do not surprise as far as what we’re seeing, However Longman is shocking and if the results we have now (Not even being close) continue through the night the LNP will have to explain quite a lot.
Bottom line is Malcolm Turnbull lost all 5 contests. Wimping out in WA counts as a loss in my book. Susan Lamb’s excellent result in Longman will have Qld pollies worried. Swing of 4.2%. Dutton right next door in Dickson is sitting on less than 2%
Media should be all over Malcolm’s poor showing, leadership woes etc. But of course they won’t.
So ultimately no change – I don’t know why people really thought there would be.
About the only surprise is the size of the pro-ALP swing in Longman.
Keay won’t have an increased majority after postals, just an unchanged one.
My original expectation was that all incumbents (or incumbent parties) would be returned. That expectation was tested, at least in Braddon and Longman, by hard fought campaigns and some dodgy seat polls. But in the end my expectations have been met. Governments, certainly not unpopular governments, don’t pick up seats mid term. That’s just the way by-elections go.
Longman – an excellent result for Labor. To get over 40% in a marginal seat by-election – when there are so many candidates and the scope for a protest vote is high – is no mean feat. Contrast with the LNP vote sinking below 30%. The 2PP swing of 4% probably understates Labor’s achievement here, given the switch in One Nation preferences. Though admittedly the One Nation voters would have been made up of more LNP-leaning voters this time, given the drop in the LNP vote.
Braddon – Labor will be relieved Keay was returned but otherwise it’s an underwhelming result. The government will be happy to have held its ground. Problem is, marginal seats tend to look more like Longman than Braddon.
Mayo – I see a lot of bagging of Georgina Downer, but I doubt a different Liberal candidate would have done any better. A 3% swing at a by-election is not a disaster. First term rural independents often lift their vote at re-election. Downer will have a better chance (though still a firm underdog) at the general election when voters’ minds are focussed on who’ll form government. However, that task will be harder now that the by-election has raised Sharkie’s profile (in a way that a general election would not have).
Perth, Fremantle – meh, nothing to see here.
Overall I don’t think these by-elections tell us a great deal. Labor remains well placed to win the next election, but it’s far from inevitable.
David Walsh
Momentum. It is now firmly with the ALP, & BS. That is the result
Comments are closed.