12:30pm – That’s all I’ll be posting today. I’ll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days.
12:26pm – On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has dropped 1.9%, and Labor has jumped by 3.1%, thanks to inclusion of Boothby and Kingston, which were seats where Labor competed much more strongly.
It’s also worth noting that the Liberal-Labor 2PP figure in all three seats where NXT broke into the top two have seen Labor’s position strengthen. I will have to make my own estimates of the LIB vs NXT margin in these three seats, but won’t happen until tomorrow.
12:20pm – So here are the toplines:
- Labor has lost its sixth seat, thanks to the merger of Port Adelaide and Wakefield into Spence, which is a very safe seat.
- The extremely marginal Labor seat of Hindmarsh has become reasonably safe, while Adelaide has also got a lot safer, and Makin is a bit safer.
- It’s hard to predict the margins in Barker, Grey or Mayo because there were parts of these seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn’t involve NXT. So that’s why these margins haven’t changed much. About 86% of Grey and Mayo were already in the seat before the redistribution, while the figure is just over 90% for Barker.
- The Liberal Party’s position has got weaker in Boothby and Sturt.
12:15pm – Here are my margin estimates.
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Adelaide | ALP 4.7% | ALP 8.3% |
| Barker | LIB vs NXT 4.7% | LIB vs NXT 4.2% |
| Boothby | LIB 3.5% | LIB 2.7% |
| Grey | LIB vs NXT 2% | LIB vs NXT 1.9% |
| Hindmarsh | ALP 0.6% | ALP 8.4% |
| Kingston | ALP 17% | ALP 13.5% |
| Makin | ALP 9.7% | ALP 10.8% |
| Mayo | NXT vs LIB 5% | NXT vs LIB 5.3% |
| Port Adelaide | ALP vs NXT 14.9% | Abolished |
| Spence (Wakefield) | ALP 11% | ALP 17.1% |
| Sturt | LIB 5.9% | LIB 5.4% |
12:08pm – Here are my estimates of the 2PP and primary vote.
Vote estimates
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LNP 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | NXT prim |
| Adelaide | 58.3 | 41.7 | 39.07 | 32.55 | 10.0 | 13.7 |
| Barker | 36.1 | 63.9 | 16.32 | 45.56 | 3.6 | 28.6 |
| Boothby | 47.3 | 52.7 | 26.92 | 41.67 | 8.2 | 18.5 |
| Grey | 42.2 | 57.8 | 22.5 | 42.22 | 2.7 | 26.7 |
| Hindmarsh | 58.4 | 41.6 | 39.98 | 31.3 | 6.6 | 17.0 |
| Kingston | 63.5 | 36.5 | 45.3 | 26.16 | 5.8 | 18.1 |
| Makin | 60.8 | 39.2 | 42.7 | 27.47 | 4.7 | 16.7 |
| Mayo | 46.7 | 53.3 | 16.62 | 36.62 | 8.2 | 33.0 |
| Spence | 67.1 | 32.9 | 45.08 | 20.78 | 4.6 | 20.1 |
| Sturt | 44.6 | 55.4 | 23.3 | 44.38 | 7.6 | 19.9 |
11:56am – It turns out the redistribution was released at 11:30am east coast time, not Adelaide time (as predicted by the AEC) so I’m just catching up now. Will have estimates in a few minutes. It appears Wakefield and Port Adelaide have been merged as the seat of Spence.
Looks like the fault line within South Australia are getting more and more defined.
On a TPP basis (as opposed to TCP), it means that the only seats in play are Sturt and Boothby. Even then, with Christopher Pyne’s personal vote, in the short term, the only seat in play is Boothby.
New Boothby covers areas generally solid for the Libs – the more Lib, southerly, parts of Hindmarsh and the historical Boothby. I’d treat that calculated margin as a lower bound. On similar boundaries, Boothby has only been lost by the Libs once in the past 80 years or so – in 1943.
At first glance, Labor appears to get very little in return for the loss of a seat. Measly amounts shaved off the Liberal margins in Boothby and Sturt (and Mayo, if that counts). But it’s actually resulted in a more efficient spread of the Labor vote in the five seats they hold. In Adelaide in particular, the redraw looks very favourable.
When you recall that the immediate predecessors of Ellis, Champion, Zappia, Rishworth, and Georganas were all Liberal MPs, it’s amazing how safe the Labor seats look now.
If Labor is to have a serious crack at Boothby then Georganas should be the candidate. If he wins, he won’t even have to change his electoral office.
Ben, the recent SA State election had Greens at 6.66 percent, SA Best at 14.15 percent and Australian Conservatives at 3.03 percent.
While the Greens average of 6.2 percent is not unreasonable, do you think a NXT vote of 21.23 percent is there, especially with Nick Xenephon out of the picture?
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