| Candidate | Party | Primary | Primary % | Swing | 2PP votes | 2PP % | 2PP Swing |
| Tony Robinson | Liberty Alliance | 623 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |||
| Wesley Folitarik | Sustainable Australia | 827 | 1.14 | 1.14 | |||
| James Jansson | Science Party | 902 | 1.25 | 1.25 | |||
| John Alexander | Liberal | 31,901 | 44.08 | -9.23 | 39195 | 54.16 | -5.66 |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 26,290 | 36.33 | 5.97 | 33172 | 45.84 | 5.66 |
| James Platter | People’s Party | 149 | 0.21 | 0.21 | |||
| Justin Alick | The Greens | 5,000 | 6.91 | -2.40 | |||
| Anthony Ziebell | Affordable Housing | 622 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |||
| Anthony Fels | Non-Custodial Parents | 116 | 0.16 | 0.16 | |||
| Joram Richa | Conservatives | 3,251 | 4.49 | 4.49 | |||
| Gui Cao | Christian Democratic | 2,299 | 3.18 | -3.83 | |||
| Chris Golding | Australian Progressives | 386 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
11:20 – If you found this analysis useful, please consider signing up as a patron of this website. I’m running a fundraiser throughout December, and I’m hoping for 50 patrons to let me expand the time I spend on this website in 2018.
11:07 – Last contribution for tonight is this map of the election results by booth. It shows a very clear difference in terms of the swing to Labor. There were swings of over 5% across the Eastwood and Epping area, with much smaller swings in the Ryde area. I’ll return tomorrow with a sum-up post.
9:29 – Just returned after a bit of a break. We now have all of the ordinary booths and most of the local pre-poll centres. The result is very clear – the Liberal Party’s margin has been reduced from 9.7% to around 4.2%, but John Alexander will hold on comfortably. The swing was clearly the biggest in Eastwood and Epping – the most multicultural parts of the seat. Others will undoubtedly do more in-depth analysis of this question in coming days, but it’s certainly plausible that the Liberal Party was harder-hit with the Chinese and Korean communities.
8:12 – Things have slowed down, although there’s still a bunch of booths yet to come. One thing worth noting is that the swing against the Libs is much bigger on the primary vote than after preferences. Part of this is probably due to the almost 5% of the vote going to the Conservatives. This has meant that quite a lot of those votes lost by the Liberal Party as primary votes were won back as preferences, and has increased the Liberal share of minor candidate preferences.
7:56 – This race is definitely over. Now that we have correct numbers, we can see that the biggest swing to Labor happened in Eastwood and Ryde, with the smallest swing in West Ryde.
7:51 – Sorry, I think I had a data error with the sub-area swings. Should be fixed now, but the swings are much more variable and not so clear-cut.
7:47 – The swing in Gladesville has fallen back into line with the rest of the seat. Not sure what happened there.
7:39 – I think that might have been Macquarie Park which increased the swing over 5%.
7:36 – Another booth has increased the swing to over 5%. Maybe a bit early to call this by-election on small booths, but Labor still has a long way to go.
7:33 – I should note that my two-party-preferred result is the actual figure now, not a projected figure. The swing is based on projections. This explains why the AEC has Alexander on 56.05% while I have him on 57.17%, but with the same swing. The numbers are the same.
7:28 – The Carlingford booth had an 11.7% 2PP swing to Labor, which has increased the overall 2PP swing to 3.7%. Still a long way short of what is needed.
7:20 – We have five booths reporting preferences, and only one of them shows a swing of more than 5% to the ALP. While the swing is sizeable, it does appear that the Liberals are likely to win.
7:18 – We now have nine primary vote booths, and there has been a sizeable drop in the Liberal vote, but right now it doesn’t look like enough to turf out Alexander – the Labor vote is up 5.1%, while the Liberal vote is down 8.8%.
7:08 – The first booths are Marsfield and Ryde. There’s an 11.6% swing to Labor on primary votes in Marsfield and 4% in Ryde.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Bennelong by-election. I’ll be covering this by-election live tonight, hopefully including some projections and geographic breakdowns (although I’m still finishing them off). We should start having results between 6:30 and 7pm.
Results by sub-area
| Area | % of 2016 vote | ALP % | LIB % | ALP 2PP % | LIB 2PP % | ALP 2PP swing |
| Eastwood | 87.57 | 34.58 | 39.11 | 47.31 | 52.69 | 7.42 |
| Epping | 85.90 | 31.29 | 40.68 | 44.25 | 55.75 | 6.07 |
| Gladesville | 98.49 | 29.05 | 47.44 | 39.95 | 60.05 | 3.22 |
| Other votes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pre-poll | 126.41 | 36.53 | 40.23 | 48.04 | 51.96 | 4.46 |
| Ryde | 93.72 | 31.55 | 43.33 | 43.27 | 56.73 | 2.75 |
| West Ryde | 101.83 | 35.99 | 36.82 | 49.24 | 50.76 | 3.76 |
Should be interesting . .
Note that most of the ACP vote seems to have come from a reduction in the CDF vote – looks like 1% shift to the micro parties on the right – on the left reduction in the Green vote matched by the vote for a couple of leftish micro parties
Unfortunately the swing wasn’t big enough for Kristina Keneally and Labor. But what a great fight we fort the liberals cant take Bennelong for granted any longer.
It places questions on the ACP. First the failure in Queensland to register that led to 30x 3 way seats in populated areas which assisted the ALP Qld government.
Secondly they haven’t yet secured all of the far right economic minor social conservatives.
You can have a ACP and a DLP but you cant have a ACP and CDP running against each other and splitting a vote which is very much aligned.
This by election also should see the end of the ALA party which was on life support anyway.
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