Run of the board – NSW council elections

In this post I will quickly summarise the state of play in the 14 most populous councils I have analysed (excluding Ku-ring-gai, where no tickets are standing across multiple wards). I’ll be back later today with some analysis of the swings across the councils and over the coming days I’ll do deeper analysis of some of the more interesting councils.

Labor has won a majority in Canterbury-Bankstown and Newcastle, with a chance in Cumberland, Georges River and Wollongong.

The Liberal Party has won a majority in the Hills, and a majority in Hornsby with the casting vote of new mayor Philip Ruddock.

Independents or Greens hold the balance of power in the remaining councils.

Bayside

Labor has won at least six seats, with the Liberal Party on five, along with three independents. Greens candidate Greta Werner is leading Labor for the final seat in Mascot. If Labor win that seat they will hold seven seats. Labor is likely to run the council, with the support of Greens and independents.

Canterbury-Bankstown

Labor has won at least eight seats, and is leading in a ninth seat. The Liberal Party has won five seats.

Greens candidate Linda Eisler is currently leading Our Local Community for the third seat in Canterbury ward, while Labor’s second candidate is leading Our Local Community for the third seat in Revesby. Regardless of these results, Labor will hold an absolute majority.

Central Coast

Labor has won six seats on the Central Coast, with the Liberal Party on at least four. Five independents are currently on track to win, but two of these independents could potentially lose to the Liberal Party. So the best case scenario for the Liberals would put them even with Labor, with independents holding the balance of power regardless.

Cumberland

Labor has a real shot at a majority here. They have won at least six seats, with chances of three more, while the Liberal Party has won four. Our Local Community’s Paul Garrard has won a seat in South Granville. The Liberal Party will likely win a fifth council seat in South Granville, where they lead former Auburn councillor Hicham Zraika.

Labor’s second candidate is leading in Greystanes ahead of Our Local Community, while the second Labor candidate is leading a wide field of candidates with a shot in Wentworthville. The Residents Action Group Cumberland is leading the second Labor candidate in Regents Park. If Labor wins two of these three contests, they will hold a majority.

Georges River

Labor has won at least six seats, with a chance of two more which would give them a majority. The Liberal Party has won five, along with at least one independent and the Kogarah Residents Association.

A second independent is leading the second Labor candidate in Mortdale, while the Greens candidate is leading the second Labor candidate in Peakhurst. If Labor pulls ahead in both these races they will win a majority.

Hornsby

Former federal Liberal minister Philip Ruddock should easily win the mayoralty, with 47% of the primary vote. His party will win at least four out of nine seats on the council. His vote, plus a mayoral casting vote, should allow the Liberals to run the council.

The Greens have won at least two seats, while they are leading Labor for a third seat. Two other Liberals have a chance, but are currently trailing a Labor candidate and an independent in the B and C wards respectively.

Inner West

Labor and the Greens have each won at least five seats.

The Liberal Party has also won two seats, in Ashfield and Leichhardt. Progressive independent Pauline Lockie has also won in Stanmore ward.

Two seats remain outstanding. #2 Labor candidate Linda Kelly has taken the lead ahead of independent John Stamolis and the Liberal candidate for the final seat in Balmain, while progressive independent Victoria Pye is narrowly leading conservative independent Victor Macri in Marrickville.

If Stamolis and Pye were to both win, it would allow Greens and independents to form a majority. If Kelly wins in Balmain, Labor would have a choice of working with Liberals or the progressive independents. If Stamolis and Macri win, Labor would need one of the independents and both Liberals to run the council. If Kelly and Macri win, Labor will have a wide range of options.

Newcastle

Labor has won a majority on Newcastle council. They will win the mayoralty, and second seats in Wards 3 and 4, giving them a total of seven out of 13 on the council.

The independents look set to win four seats. The Greens have won a seat in Ward 1. The Greens and Liberals are competing for the final seat in Ward 2. The Liberals have a substantial lead, but there is a large Labor surplus that could be enough to re-elect Greens councillor Therese Doyle.

Northern Beaches

No party will hold a majority here. Your Northern Beaches, led by former Warringah mayor Michael Regan, have won at least four seats and are leading in two others. The Liberal Party has won five seats. At least one other independent has won a seat.

The Greens are leading Labor for the final seat in Curl Curl. Your Northern Beaches are leading the Greens in Manly. The final two seats are a mess in Pittwater. Right now former mayor Alex McTaggart and Your Northern Beaches look set to win these two seats, but the Greens, and former Greens councillor (now independent) Selena Griffith are in with a shot.

Overall there are two blocks, and they will need to work with other independents and Greens to run the council.

Parramatta

Overall control of the council is still in play. The Liberal Party have won six seats, while Labor has won five. There are four wards where Greens and independents are competing for seats, and these races will determine the balance of power.

Michelle Garrard (daughter of former mayor Paul, who has been elected to Cumberland Council) is in the lead for the Our Local Community (OLC) party in Dundas, narrowly ahead of the Local Independent Party (LIP).

Independent Lorraine Wearne is in the lead in Epping, trailed by LIP and the Greens.

The Greens are leading for the final seat in Parramatta, ahead of LIP and OLC. Our Local Community is narrowly ahead of the Greens in Rosehill ward.

If the Greens win all three of the races they are contesting (very unlikely) they would be able to form a stable majority with Labor. The Our Local Community team has received preferences from the Liberals, which suggests something about how they might side on the next council. If they hold both of theirs, they’d be able to work with the Liberal Party. The Local Independent Party received preferences from Labor: if they did well then they could, together with the Greens, support a Labor-led majority.

Randwick

It appears that Randwick will elect five Labor, four Liberals, three Greens and three independents, including two on former mayor Noel D’Souza’s ticket. This is a shift away from the major parties, who each won six seats in 2012. A number of options will be available to form a majority.

Ryde

No party will win a majority in Ryde.

On current numbers, Labor and Liberal are winning four seats, along with two Greens and two independents. It is possible the second Liberal in Central ward could fall behind an independent, and it’s also possible the Greens could lose one of their two seats to the Liberals.

The Hills

No change in the Hills. The Liberal Party is on track to hold their nine seats, alongside three Labor. In addition, the Liberals will win the newly created directly-elected mayor.

Wollongong

There appears to be a close race between independent Gordon Bradbery (33.6%) and Labor’s David Brown 28.0%. The Liberal candidate is on 16.6% and the Greens are on 11%, so their preferences will be decisive.

There is one council seat in play – Labor is leading the Liberal for the last seat in Ward 2. If Labor wins both of these races they will hold a majority of 7 out of 13 seats.

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