An overview of the candidates can be found at Poll Bludger.
The race for Molonglo has always been the most interesting in the ACT. Unlike Brindabella and Ginninderra, the central Canberra seat elects seven MLAs. The ALP and Liberals each won three seats in 2004, with the other seat going to Deb Foskey of the Greens.
The recent Patterson poll gave 2.6 quotas to the ALP, 2.3 quotas to the Liberals, 1.8 quotas to the Greens and 1.3 quotas to Others. The three Labor MLAs are all cabinet ministers. Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher (pictured) and fellow minister Simon Corbell should be elected safely, while Andrew Barr, who filled a casual vacancy by countback during the last term, would be most likely to be in danger if the ALP struggles to win a third seat. The most interesting of the other candidates would be Mike Hettinger. After just missing out on winning in 2004 and then losing a countback to Barr more recently, Hettinger has been running on a platform of “green Labor”. In response to his “maverick” campaign, the ALP has frozen his campaign funds this week. He could prove an upset if a large surplus for the Greens’ Shane Rattenbury leaks away from the Greens.
Richard Mulcahy, who was the highest-polling Liberal in 2004, was expelled from the Liberals in 2007 and is running as an independent. The other two MLAs, leader Zed Seselja and Jacqui Burke, should be safely re-elected. The latest poll suggests that will be all the Liberals gain, but if one was to win, it could be any of the remaining five Liberal candidates.
Greens candidate Shane Rattenbury should be safely elected. If the Patterson poll is to be believed, the Greens may poll as high as 23%, above a quota of 12.5%. Yet it will be very difficult for either Elena Kirschbaum or Caroline Le Couteur to win. The Greens have not been conducting a campaign for either of them, and in the intensely personalised ACT campaign, a large surplus for Rattenbury could well scatter to many different candidates.
Former Liberal MLA Richard Mulcahy would have to be a strong contender to be elected as an independent, after polling first for the Liberals in 2004. The only other contender is Frank Pangallo. His campaign seems hamstrung by the fact that Pangallo’s sole experience is as Mayor of Queanbeyan. His outsider status, and his attitude of treating the ACT Legislative Assembly as a glorified local council (which is not an unusual opinion) may hurt him in his quest to be elected.
My prediction: Seselja, Gallagher, Rattenbury, Corbell, Mulcahy, Burke, Barr, for a total of 3 ALP, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens, 1 Independent.
Others to watch: Mike Hettinger, Caroline Le Couteur, Frank Pangallo and Liberal candidate Gary Kent.
