The 2015 Queensland election was very close, with neither party winning a majority of seats. Labor is estimated to hold 48 seats, while the LNP holds 42 seats. There are two Katter’s Australian Party seat, and one independent seat. 47 seats are needed for a majority.
Recent polling has been very close, with both Labor and LNP winning polls. This suggests that either side has the potential to gain seats, and lose other seats. In addition there are numerous seats where other parties could be a factor: independents, the Greens, One Nation and Katter’s Australian Party.
Labor-LNP marginals
There are nineteen Labor seats with a margin against the LNP under 6%.
There are four Labor seats on the north side of Brisbane with margins of less than 6%: from the city centre northward these are McConnel, Cooper, Ferny Grove and Pine Rivers.
There are also seven marginal Labor seats in southern Brisbane and Logan: Mount Ommaney, Miller, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Stretton, Springwood and Logan.
In central Queensland, heading north, the Labor marginal seats are Maryborough, Bundaberg, Keppel and Mirani.
Labor has five marginal seats in north Queensland: three around Townsville (Burdekin, Townsville and Mundingburra) and the Cairns-area seat of Barron River.
LNP-Labor marginals
There are eighteen LNP seats with a margin against Labor under 6%.
There are four LNP marginal seats in the City of Brisbane: Aspley, Chatsworth, Everton and Maiwar.
There are six marginal LNP seats on the Gold Coast: Bonney, Burleigh, Coomera, Currumbin, Gaven and Theodore.
The LNP is defending two seats in the Redland council area: (Oodgeroo and Redlands) and three on the Sunshine Coast (Caloundra, Glass House and Pumicestone).
There are three LNP marginal seats vulnerable to Labor further afield: Hinchinbrook, Whitsunday and Toowoomba North.
Katter’s Australian Party seats
Katter’s Australian Party holds two seats. Traeger is very safe, but the seat of Hill will be in play against the LNP.
Independent seats
Sitting independent MP Peter Wellington is retiring in Nicklin, and that seat is not likely to be in play. There are two sitting independent MPs who won seats in 2015 as Labor candidates, and they will be facing an uphill battle to win, against either Labor or the LNP. These two seats are Cairns and Cook, both in far north Queensland.
One Nation seats
Since One Nation were not a major player in the 2015 state election, it is not simple to determine where One Nation might stand a chance. I’ve considered their chances in a previous post.
One Nation state leader Steve Dickson holds the Sunshine Coast seat of Buderim, which he won in 2015 as an LNP candidate. One Nation also came close to winning the seat of Lockyer in 2015, and did well in that area at the 2016 federal election.
Some other prospects for the party include the Labor seats of Mirani, Maryborough and Burdekin, and the LNP seats of Hinchinbrook, Callide, Gregory, Burnett and Nanango.
Greens seats
The Greens do not hold any seats in Queensland but there are a small number of seats which have strong Greens votes and could potentially be vulnerable to the party.
There are three seats in inner Brisbane where the party has polled well. The party has previously targetted or held the two seats merged to make up Maiwar, and currently holds the Brisbane City ward which overlaps with South Brisbane, and has also done well in McConnel.
The Greens came second in Noosa in 2015, and generally do well in this area at state elections.
The seat of Mount Ommaney I thought was a LNP held seat. Or after the redistribution have things changed.
It’s become a notional Labor seat.
About 2000 votes if I remember correctly.
Campaigning evident in Northern Outer Suburbs/ Suburban fringe but no evidence in Western suburbs including Mt Ommaney.
Parties clearly think inner city – middle city suburbs not worth campaigning in. Nothing like being unpredictable to get political attention
Not true – plenty of evidence from both parties in Maiwar and Mount Ommaney.
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