In the process of putting together my guide to the Queensland election, I had to consider how to handle the potential vote for One Nation, who have polled as highly as 23% earlier this year and were sitting on 15% in the most recent poll. Normally I assess a seat’s vulnerability based on its margin, but a new party polling 15% is likely to upset the apple-cart, threatening seats which look very safe on paper.
One Nation haven’t been a significant statewide player in Queensland state elections since 2001, so the best source of information comes from the 2016 federal election – specifically the Senate, as One Nation only ran in a handful of House of Representatives seats.
Thankfully Alex Jago has done the work taking those results and converting them into the new Queensland state electorates using AEC data about where people from a particular SA1 vote. He’s then taken those votes and distributed preferences amongst Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation.
After distributing those preferences, One Nation is left with about 15% of the statewide vote – about the same as their latest polling.
For now I won’t bother trying to project how these votes would shift based on differing polling (for a start, the LNP vote was higher and Labor’s vote lower in 2016 compared to the latest polling), but I’ll just list those seats which have the highest One Nation vote according to Jago’s model. I will be referencing this analysis in my profiles of seats with a high One Nation vote.
The following table lists the twenty seats with the highest One Nation vote, and the rank that One Nation came out of Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation. In nine of these seats, One Nation outpolled one of the major parties last year.
Kevin Bonham has also written about this same dataset, and put some more thought into how these votes might play out in an election. In short, a lot will depend on how close One Nation is to the leading candidate, and whether they are competing with Labor or the LNP (and thus which parties’ preferences will decide the result).
The introduction of compulsory preferences will also complicate things. Preference flows will definitely change, but it’s hard to say how exactly. The new One Nation only made it into the top two in one seat at last year’s federal election, so we don’t know how to predict how strongly Labor or LNP preferences would flow to One Nation. If they receive a poor preference flow, it’s possible they could make it to the top two in many seats and only win a few. One Nation did reasonably well with preferences at last year’s Senate election, so it’s not safe to assume that they would receive poor preference flows.
| Seat | Margin | ON Senate vote | ON rank |
| Lockyer | LNP vs ON 1.6% | 32.0% | 2 |
| Traeger | KAP vs LNP 16.1% | 28.4% | 3 |
| Mirani | ALP 3.8% | 27.1% | 3 |
| Hinchinbrook | LNP 3.4% | 26.7% | 3 |
| Callide | LNP 9.8% | 26.3% | 2 |
| Gregory | LNP 10.9% | 25.8% | 2 |
| Burnett | LNP 6.6% | 25.7% | 3 |
| Hill | KAP vs LNP 4.9% | 25.5% | 2 |
| Maryborough | ALP 1.1% | 25.4% | 3 |
| Nanango | LNP 13.3% | 25.3% | 2 |
| Gympie | LNP 7.6% | 25.3% | 2 |
| Warrego | LNP 14.5% | 24.3% | 2 |
| Condamine | LNP 17.1% | 24.2% | 2 |
| Hervey Bay | LNP 6.5% | 24.2% | 3 |
| Burdekin | ALP 1.4% | 24.1% | 3 |
| Gladstone | ALP 25.3% | 24.0% | 3 |
| Bundaberg | ALP 0.5% | 23.9% | 3 |
| Thuringowa | ALP 6.6% | 23.4% | 3 |
| Southern Downs | LNP 19.2% | 22.9% | 2 |
| Scenic Rim | LNP 9.2% | 22.6% | 3 |
One Nation did make it into the top two (after preferences) at the last federal election in the seat of Maranoa.
Oh yes of course.
(This post was actually intended to go up next week with the rest of the guide, so not totally fact-checked yet)
Terrifying.
Some CQ seats will not show up in this analysis as no PHON candidate stood in Capricornia. 1998 Qld election might provide some insight given similar (if a little stronger) polling figures to current state of affairs.
The standing of candidates is not relevant because this analysis is based on the Senate vote.
If Liberals preference PHON last, are there any seats where a split conservative vote could end in surprise Labor gains? That is, a PHON vs Labor top 2 where Liberal preferences put Labor over the top.
If so then that’s how this election could repeat 1998. It seems like the LNP has the most to lose from a PHON surge
Andrew Bartlett is right about the AShby-HAnson Party poor performnanvce in Marnoa.
Maranoa however is bugger of a seat to campaign in . 190 DIfferent polling booths. THIs makes it a major exercise even for the SItting candidate with access to office, staff, and other resources. For all minor parties the seat is a horrendous task.
I would suspect that at most booths in Maranoa only ALP and LNP had HTV.
If 1% of voters had an AShby-Hanson vote in their hands I would be surprised.
Hopefully all political parties will place AShby-Hanson along with the Rhiannon-Hanson-Young tickets last on their ballot paper. MY inclination is to put Ashby-Hanson Last and GReens second last
Andrew Jackson, you are presumably aware that the aforementioned Mr Bartlett, probably soon to again be Senator Bartlett, is in the “Rhiannon-Hanson-Young” crowd?
Maybe you just think Bartlett is the best of the Greens (I think I’d agree) but I don’t think you should say QLD state parliament would be worse off with a Green or 3, especially with the joke that is the Adani mine apparently backed to the hilt by both major parties.
BEnnee,
Of course I aware of Andrew Bartlett’s background and is happens I do think he is the best of a bad bunch. But I would still put near bottom of my ballot paper. This does not mean i am not civil to him. He has always been civil to me in the past. IN fact I used to respect his blog. I am certain that Queensland Parliament will be far worse with extremists of either the left or the right in it.
WHat is needed is for LNP to move back to the party of Menzies and reject the Friedmanite economics it has been practising for last ten years and ALP to reject the moral degeneracy of inner city parasites. BOth need to go back and kisten to their constituencies which both have stopped doing.
We need economic growth and social advancement.
I am sure that Andrew Bartlett knows roughly where he will be on my ballot paper. What he does not know is whether One Nation will be one above him or one below him. THis is because I do not know which I will think is the more dangerous on election day. At the moment I am tending to think that Ashby -Hanson is more dangerous than Bartlett but not more dangerous than Hanson-Young or Rhiannon.
I am not sure that Bartlett will welcome this feint praise.
“BOth need to go back and kisten to their constituencies which both have stopped doing.”
Perhaps the Greens could help them with that with their bans to for-profit donations to political campaigns policy.
The Liberals have been Friedmanites for way longer than a decade. I’m not sure what degeneracy you refer to, but to my knowledge the fear of social change is usually unwarranted.
Shades of 1998 tonight. The “rise of One Nation” always makes for some good headlines, so there’s plenty of hype but IMO a real likelihood One Nation walks away with nothing.
The redistributions haven’t really been to the minor parties’ benefit and despite the malignment of the LNP deal, even they’re running open preferences in most of the seats that matter. One Nation might poll in the 30s in a lot of seats but in the end it’s all for naught.
Expect to see that ‘ONP’ count at the bottom of every single television broadcast tonight and staying embarrassingly low (or zero) for the duration.
I am going to make a prediction .
One nation 30 seats minus
KAP 6 seats plus
independents 3 seats
LNP wipe out
Labor ???
One nation to be the senior party in coalition with
KAP & LNP or Labor .
true democracy just like Germany ~ France~Italy ~ the UK & New Zealand
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