I haven’t been posting much about the Western Australian election recently, but wanted to quickly touch base on the final day of the campaign.
I was in the Guardian last Friday writing about the campaign. Since then more polls have suggested enough of a swing to Labor to tip out the Barnett government.
There are a lot of conversations taking place in the comments sections for each seat – you can join the chat for your seat, or check out the ten most recent comments in the sidebar.
I’ll be on Backchat on FBI radio in Sydney tomorrow morning at 11am (8am WA time) and will be running a liveblog here and contributing to the Guardian’s liveblog when results come in tomorrow night.
In the meantime, please use this thread to post your predictions.
Rang PHON head office yesterday to discuss preference deal and was told there was none for the WA election, so somebody is having a lend of us all…
I believe ON will not do as good as they and some people think, having done deals with the Libs, spoken out about kids either getting or not getting the injections, the GST mistake, and others will cost WA ON
.
Going to the ALP will only give the people more of the same old same old, therefore parties like Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, LDP and Independents could hold the balance in the new Parliament.
My prediction:
ALP 35 LIB 17 NAT 7
Labor to regain West Swan and Collie-Preston as well as gain Belmont, Forrestfield, Perth, Swan Hills, Morley, Balcatta, Mount Lawley, Bicton, Kalamunda, Joondalup, Southern River, Burns Beach and Bunbury.
No changes elsewhere. The Nationals will keep all their seats including Roe.
I’m not brave enough to do an upper house prediction.
Crap I forgot Wanneroo. Make that ALP 36 LIB 16 NAT 7.
The Liberals leaked “polling” implying a catastrophic defeat was probably put out to soften the blow of a narrow defeat.
Prediction: McGowan on a margin of 3 or fewer seats
Conservative (Lib, Nat, Phon, Shooters) majority in the upper house
Also no seat will have a 2 Candidate preferred with a party other than Liberal, National or Labor. Greens have been too low profile due to PHON being the “3rd party” getting the media attention and most of the swinging voters will just vote Labor. PHON will be a fizzer.
I’ll predict the following:
ALP to hold all current metro seats, Albany and Kimberley.
A very large (15%+) swing to the ALP in outer suburban Perth, particularly the Joondalup region seats (Joondalup, Wanneroo, Burns Beach) and Southern River. Seats like Riverton, Darling Range, Kalamunda and possibly Jandakot to be line ball.
The ALP to pick up the seats they should never have lost last time (Balcatta, Morley, Perth, Belmont, Forrestfield, Swan Hills). Plus Mt Lawley. And hold West Swan against the redistribution.
Very little swing in the Lib Perth heartland (Cottesloe, Nedlands, Churchlands, Bateman, South Perth, Carine). I’d think in the less than 4% range. Bicton to be interesting with a big swing in part, and none in other bits. Hillarys could return Johnston for this term as a protest that doesn’t involve electing the ALP. Scarborough could go any direction, but most likely little change, suspect it’s safe Lib for the future. Kingsley could be interesting, though it’s been mostly ignored up to now so I’d guess a smaller than average swing.
Regional swings to be muted with the PHON/Lib deal. At least on the 2PP vote. I would expect the ALP to hold Albany and Kimberley, with Collie-Preston a fight because of the PHON deal. Bunbury could be the exception – I think it’s a line ball chance for the ALP. If the ALP pick up enough of a swing in Bunbury to win, then I suspect the swing in Greater Bunbury to be enough to hold CP as well.
I would expect the Nats to hold Pilbara, Kalgoorlie, North West Central and Warren-Blackwood. They might have a fight on against PHON in Roe, Central Wheatbelt and Moore – but almost certainly hold them all. A protest vote against Barnett in Geraldton could give the Nats a sniff there too. Pilbara is the most interesting there, I’d think there’s probably a 10% chance the ALP could come from out of the blue to recover that seat.
Ultimately, I’m thinking about 52-48 statewide, but enough in Perth to get the ALP to about 35 seats. I’m thinking the swing will be where the ALP needs it to be, and not where they don’t.
ALP seats in danger from anyone: Collie-Preston (Nat/Lib)
Lib seats in danger from the ALP: Belmont, Forrestfield, Swan Hills, Balcatta, Morley, Perth, Joondalup, Wanneroo, Burns Beach, Southern River, Riverton, Kalamunda, Darling Range, Riverton, Bicton, Bunbury (maybe Kingsley and Jandakot)
Other Lib seats in danger: Geraldton (Nats), Hillarys (Ind)
Nat seats in any danger: maybe Pilbara (who the hell knows)
Labor to win…… also to win one or 2 of …….. Pilbara, North west Central Kalgoolie
outside chance of Geralton….. but it boundaries tend to preclude a labor win
more to come
It comes down to the best Money Waster of public funds and nis management
Colon comes out second best He needs to be booted out , his arrogant appeals to the Peppermint elite, but does little for the working class, so Colon, pain in the … needs to Purge his lions. you need to Gooo.. to the toilet
I think we’re going to see some seats with wild swings but overall Labor will just scrape into power with 32 seats. That’s me being optimistic, I see 36 seats as the best-case wet-dream scenario and a lot of the news isn’t really accounting for how far back Labor has to come from to make government. I always worry, especially lately, about any guaranteed victories to the center-left parties.
Upper House is a complete lottery. Greens to be destroyed, PHON with 3, possibly another bloody Micro too and Labor still with not enough to get close to being able to pass legislation without the crossbench.
Going to be a far more interesting election than last time around. Thanks for the site, Ben. Really great guides and one of the few places on the internet with a place to talk and discuss the elections so cheers!
Latest leaked Liberal polling apparently says they’re losing 13 to 20 seats.
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/yes-i-am-personally-wa-premier-colin-barnett-admits-unease-over-one-nation-preference-deal-20170310-guvgd7.html
Oh, and my list of Lib seats in danger above should include Mt Lawley instead of Riverton twice (I don’t like Mike Nahan, but he can only lose once).
If it’s 20 seats potentially, I’d have to add Dawesville, Scarborough and even Carine to the list. And if they lose any of those… well the recriminations would be huge in WA Lib headquarters.
I’ve got Labor winning 31 seats.
http://polspec.net/465
I have too many doubts on them winning seats in more established suburbs, but if they were able to win one I would expect them to go on to win another three or four.
It doesn’t seem like a 20 seats kind of election. Labor isn’t popular enough.
My guess is a majority Labor government with 36 of 59 seats in the assembly.
I would expect Labor wil hold on to all current seats and to gain in order of most to least likely Belmont, Swan Hills, Perth, Morley, Balcatta, Mt Lawley, Joondalup, Southern River, Wanneroo, Bunbury, Burns Beach, Darling Range, Kalamunda, Jandakot and Bicton.
Labor could have up to half a dozen non Perth seats
Define non-Perth, Mick? Going by the region split I only see them gaining one (Bunbury) from their original 4 (Albany, Collie, Mandurah, Kimberley)
I see the Liberals being decimated with likely around a dozen seats and the ALP getting close to 40.
The polls are settled on an 11% swing and the distribution is likely to be several points higher in the marginals.
Definite (34). All those they currently hold including West Swan and Collie-Preston (22) plus: Belmont, Forrestfield, Perth, Swan Hills, Morley, Balcatta, Mt Lawley, Kalamunda, Southern River, Wanneroo, Burns Beach, Bunbury.
Very Likely: Joondalup, Darling Range, Bicton (37)
50/50: Murray-Wellington, Riverton, Kingsley
Possible: Hillarys
So I’ll go with 40-12-7.
In the Lib / Nat battles, I think the Nats will do better that expected, but more in the provincial cities than in the agricultural seats. I don’t write off Graham Jacobs in Roe, but it would be a spectacular achievement for him to win it. I think the Lib vote will be decimated in Bunbury, Geraldton, Albany and Kalgoorlie which could make for some interesting scenarios. I think the Nationals are a real chance in Geraldton and possibly Albany as they will likely come in second there.
One Nation. Their headline lower house vote will be around 5%, they are only contesting 35 out of 59 and not all the ones they have missed are inner urban. Armadale would probably have been their best seat in Perth metro but unbelievably they are not running! They should have 20% there at least. Also not running in seats like Girrawheen and Mirrabooka, nor in Busselton based Vasse. So the upshot is if they are polling 8-9% statewide, the actual result will have a 5 in front of it. They should still manage 3 LC seats and perhaps one in a metro region if they get lucky with the order of distribution of Liberal preferences.
Non Perth all you included except Mandurah
Chances in pastoral _mining areas… chances in Murray- Wellington and Geraldton although the latter two less likely
My late prediction: 32/20/7
Labor to gain Belmont, Forrestfield, Perth, Swan Hills, Morley, Balcatta, Mount Lawley, Joondalup, Southern River, Wanneroo and Burns Beach.
I’ve got a tenner on Labor to get more seats than the Libs with a line of -2.5 @$1.83, a tenner on Labor to win 34 seats or more @$7 and a hundred on Labor to win Bassendean at what seemed a very generous $1.20.
I am pretty confident about each bet, but if pushed will predict Labor to win 34, the Nats to hold steady, ON and the Greens to fall well short in the lower house and the Libs to lose plenty. The upper house will of course be a dog’s breakfast.
Exit polls are coming back and matching the final day polls. Narrow victory with a uniform swing, but expecting small swings in the western suburbs and safe seats and big swings in winnable seats so a “landslide”…
Or I could just wait an hour
I wrote my predictions on my Election Tragic blog.
I tip Labor to gain 13 seats from the Liberals, for a score of 33-19. Labor will regain both Collie-Preston and West Swan, which became notionally Liberal-held after the electoral redistribution. My other Labor gains tipped are Balcatta, Belmont, Forrestfield, Joondalup, Kalamunda, Morley, Mount Lawley, Perth, Southern River, Swan Hills, and Wanneroo.
Some other seats will have close results, but they should stay as they are.
Joondalup has finally fallen. Which pleases me as it means every seat I predicted to fall to Labor actually did so. Of course, there were a handful more that I didn’t predict.
Seats I missed: Darling Range, Kingsley, Jandakot, Murray-Wellington, Pilbara. Plus Kalgoorlie if it turns out the Nationals have lost it.
I’m pretty chuffed too! Either 41-13-5 or 41-12-6, compared to predicted 40-12-7. Add that to 76 seats for the Libs in 2016 (though not all the correct seats), the US election and exact Qld 2015 result (on Pollbludger though, not here).
Pilbara, Riverton and Jandakot were my errors, though I was out in Geraldton (thought the Nats had a chance) and badly out in Roe, which I thought would be a lot closer.
Really interested to see the state results projected onto the federal electorates. Julie Bishop is safe but it doesn’t seem like many other Liberals are. Wouldn’t be surprised if there are Liberal held seats with “safe Labor” margins.
John yes would be interesting…….. changes for Moore, Swan, Canning, maybe Pearce
big drop in liberal vote for Forrest, Hasluck and Stirling also chances
If Labor were to pick up seats in a Federal election in WA it would be Hasluck and Pearce, probably Swan as well with an outside chance in Canning. Stirling could be close but I doubt Labor would get over the line. Moore isn’t a practical target although Forrest could be fertile ground for the Nationals in the future. I’d be intrigued to see whether Brendon Grylls contests either Durack or O’Connor, and I dare say he would sail in Canberra. The WA Nats had a really bad Federal election last time around, picking weak candidates really late and a former Green as their lead Senate candidate. If Grylls had of contested, like Barnaby Joyce wanted him to he would have won.
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