We’re getting close to the end! In this update, I am calling two more seats for Labor, leaving only one seat up for grabs.
This leaves a total of:
- 76 – Coalition
- 68 – Labor
- 5 – Others
- 1 – undecided
| Seat | Absent | Provisional | Pre-poll | Postal | Current Labor lead | Projected Labor lead |
| Cowan | 2219 | 0 | 2774 | 216 | 1030 | 728 |
| Herbert | 276 | 969 | 867 | 1098 | -34 | -196 |
| Hindmarsh | 2644 | 1571 | 489 | 791 | 617 | 889 |
Cowan
There are still about 5000 absent and prepoll votes in Cowan. Labor has a substantial 1030-vote lead. Labor has only polled 45% of the prepoll vote, which is the reason why I’m expecting a drop in the Labor lead, but Labor should still win. This seat is called for Labor.
Herbert
There are very few votes left in Herbert, but the race is still extremely close. Most of the remaining votes are prepoll and postal votes. Labor has won 46% of the prepoll vote and 43% of the postal vote, which is why the model suggests the LNP will increase their lead. If Labor could win 50% in both these vote categories they would likely win a slim victory, but that seems unlikely.
Hindmarsh
Most remaining votes in Hindmarsh are absent votes, and Labor has won 56% of these votes up until now. Because of this, Labor is on track to increase their lead. Called for Labor.
Such a shame that the Libs look like they might hold onto Herbert – by the skin of their sharp little teeth. Cathy O’Toole has done a magnificent job of taking it right up to them, and if she doesnt succeed, then I do hope she keeps her hand in, and takes them on next time, and turns the tide around. I imagine Labor will be keeping a keen eye on Mr Jones to see what he delivers in the next 3 years.
Qld was the key to the election….. despite swings 3 to 7% looks like only Longman will change hands……………….. but there will be lots of seats with 4% margin or less
Jack
There is a federal redistribution due in Queensland before the next (expected) federal election in 2019. So the boundaries that Herbert has next time around may change from the current version.
Herbert can’t really change by too much, it’s pretty anchored to the Townsville urban area.
The magic vote fairy keeps intervening in Herbert, so there is still some hope for Labor there. Probably going to a recount but there would have to be a full distribution of preferences to confirm that.
I’m not sure Melbourne Ports is settled from what I hear. 55 percent chance Danby will hold on.
DB, any idea if the Liberals or Greens would win the 2CP if Danby was excluded?
DB
Will it be close enough for a recount ??
Is the 100-vote automatic recount margin only on the final tally in the distribution of preferences or does it apply to earlier exclusions too?
DB, on Melbourne Ports do you know if they are doing a #2 v #3 distribution as they go, or will they need to do a special count on those once all the votes are in and scrutineered
They are doing a 2 v 3 sample tomorrow
Meanwhile in Melbourne (itself), Labor has fallen to third… interesting, though not significant, right?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/victoria/election-2016-daniel-andrews-twoyear-greens-challenge-20160715-gq6kb9.html
DB – do you know if that 55 per cent estimate is from someone who has access to scrutineering figures of the flows of the micro parties? Ta. (Danby claimed he had definitely won on Wednesday by the way).
BJA, as I noted on the seat thread, the Liberals beat Labor in every booth south of Victoria Street, and a couple just north of it, except the two North Richmond housing commission booths. It does seem possible now that Melbourne could finish as a Greens v Lib seat.
The Libs’ abysmal vote in trendy Fitzroy and Carlton means they’re no chance of coming remotely close to winning any time soon, but looking longer term I would expect the Lib vote to improve substantially in this seat.
Herbert’s margin is down to only 12 votes now, and there are around 650 absent & provisional votes left (both of which have favoured Labor) and only 450 postal & pre-poll votes which favoured the Libs… It’s starting to look more like a Labor gain based on those numbers.
If 2013 patterns with provisionals are any guide, most of the remaining provisionals will be rejected.
Interesting about Melbourne too. Not a seat I would have expected Labor’s vote to drop so low in. However after the full preference distribution it will easily still be Green v Labor.
The other 3 parties are Animal Justice, Sex Party & Drug Law Reform with about 5300 preferences to distribute, and the Libs only lead the ALP by 418 votes. The Libs will get very, very few preferences. The Greens will actually get the lion’s share of them, but the Sex Party (with over 2800 votes) preferenced Labor on their HTV material so I imagine they should get at least 1500-2000 preferences and easily leapfrog the Libs.
I don’t think there’s any way Danby can lose Ports now either. I do think it will end up reasonably close but all the modelling I’ve done – which has deliberately overstated the likely preference flow to the Greens – still has them falling about 800-900 votes short of Labor.
Oh good observation Kevin. I didn’t take that into account.
F of StK,
Fair enough. I just assumed that AJ, Sex, and DLR would flow primarily to the Greens and not Labor.
What about the electorate of Sturt? With postal votes, the distance between Labor and NXT has now narrowed down to 22.2%/21.1% and if NXT gets the upper hand over Labor then it has a good chance against Pyne. With the help of smaller parties, NXT could quite likely overcome Labor. The question is, will the AEC do the right thing and re-check the Labor vs. NXT preferences before calling a final result?
The AEC will do a full preference distribution, like they do in every seat.
Supposing NXT do make the top two in Sturt, they need 84% of preferences to beat Pyne. Given that they are running at 73% in Mayo, 69% in Grey and 67% in Barker, it’s incredibly unlikely they will get it. I think we might know about it from their scrutineers if it was any chance at all.
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