Firstly, apologies for the technical problems last night. I hope that readers were able to follow my commentary as part of the Guardian liveblog. In future if I’m participating in a liveblog somewhere else I’m not going to try and keep my own liveblog going here – I’ll just refer people to that better service. But I will look at technical improvements.
In addition to the liveblog, you can watch a video of my assessment of the result last night (below), and I also participated in a late-night podcast summing up the results.
I’ll be doing some writing for the Guardian this afternoon about various elements of the campaign, so keep an eye on my Guardian profile to catch those.
I will be returning to this blog over the next few days to do analysis of the key House and Senate races, looking at the votes still expected to flow in.
For now, this is a quick summary of the votes that are yet to come in:
- It appears that all ordinary votes have been counted in lower house races. This covers in-electorate pre-poll votes, in-electorate election-day votes, special hospital votes and some other small batches of votes.
- In the lower house, we are still waiting for declaration votes, including: postal votes, absent votes and pre-poll out-of-electorate votes. Apparently these will begin to be counted on Tuesday, with today and Monday used to ensure that declaration votes get to where they need to be.
- In the Senate, in addition to declaration votes, we are also waiting for in-electorate pre-poll votes to be counted. These should be counted on Monday.
- It’s also worth noting that there are likely to be a lot of formal votes currently sitting in the ‘informal’ pile for the Senate. Apparently booth workers were instructed to put just ‘1’ above the line votes in that pile, and there is a history of below-the-line votes being thrown in the informal pile if formality is not immediately clear.
That’s it for now, but there’s a lot more to say.
So, now for a new Sportsbet update…
On “Hung Parliament”, the current odds are…
Yes, Hung Parliament: 1.37
No, not Hung Parliament: 3.00
So the punters are now expecting a hung parliament.
Thanks for the heads up. I think $3 is great value and I’ve parted with my money accordingly.
The ABC gives the Coalition 65 definite seats. There’s also eight seats in doubt with Coalition leads. Given the established tendency of postal votes to favour the Coalition, it’s very likely they’ll win all of those. That makes 73.
That leaves them needing three of Capricornia, Cowan, Forde, Herbert and Hindmarsh. Again, postal votes can and do erode Labor leads. Indeed, from memory the ABC projected Capricornia and Cowan with LNP leads before reverting to raw figures at the end of the night.
@DW that is correct. I think on the ABC’s projections, they were at 75. They would need to pull ahead in one seat, either Hindmarsh or Forde to get a majority but I think it is definitely possibility.
Weirdly, a different Sportsbet market has a Coalition Majority at $2.50, which is effectively now the same thing. Or even if it’s not, it’s a SUBSET of the non-hung parliament possibilities.
They also have Coalition Minority at a generous $2. So I’ve decided to hedge.
I think it’s a little optimistic to automatically expect all of the Lean-Lib seats and the majority of the remaining Lean-Lab seat going to the Liberals, when we don’t just have the postals, but the out-of-electorate pre-polls and absent votes. You have to look at each electorate separately if you’re going to at least estimate the impact.
For example, I expect Hindmarsh to be a Labor seat, because historically, the non-ordinary votes haven’t significantly favoured the Liberals in Hindmarsh – we’re talking about literally no shift in 2013 (ordinary votes had Liberals on 51.89%, and final result was 51.89%).
Both Cowan and Herbert would be difficult for the Liberals to pick up on non-ordinary votes, with a margin of 0.7% to make up. In the case of Cowan, the 2013 non-ordinary vote only shifted the total in favour of the Liberals by 0.3%. The impact was similar in Herbert. So I’d anticipate the final margin being about 0.4% to 0.5%, to Labor, in each seat.
So I think we can confidently suggest that it’s unlikely that any of these three will be held by the Liberals.
And Forde is incredibly close. In 2013, the non-ordinary votes only shifted the final result by 0.14% in favour of the Liberals, and the same happened in 2010. With the current margin being 0.11%, we’re talking about a margin of the order of 0.03%, which is of the order of 30 votes. Which means, any changes in behaviours could change the result. Either way, I’m pretty confident now that Forde is going to be the most marginal seat at the end of the counts.
Capricornia is the Liberals’ best hope amongst the seats currently leaning Labor, but here, too, it’s going to be close. The current margin is 0.77%. In 2013 and 2010, Capricornia’s non-ordinary vote improved the Liberals’ position by 0.88% and 0.89%, respectively. Which means, if things go exactly the same as the last two elections, the margin will be about 0.11-0.12%. That’s still only a little over 100 votes. Again, changes in behaviour could change the result. But if I had to guess, I’d say Capricornia will go to the Liberals.
So Labor picks up 3 seats on top of their existing 67 at current count, possibly losing Batman to the Greens (but that doesn’t matter for what I’m discussing), which means the best the Liberals would be able to do is 75. And random variance would suggest that one of Forde and Capricornia will end up staying Labor, just due to random fluctuations.
This is why punters are now favouring a hung parliament. Especially when you look back at the poll numbers, and notice that there was a shift in the last week in favour of the Liberals… if that is borne out in pre-polls and postals, it might reduce the benefit that non-ordinary votes give to the Liberals, in which case I’d expect both Forde and Capricornia to be gained by Labor.
It’s also worth noting that this election has occurred right in the middle of the mid-year school holidays, whereas the 2013 election was in the middle of Term 3, as was 2010, and 2007 was in the middle of Term 4. So the last time we had a situation where young families were likely to be on holidays during the election was in 2004 (which was at the end of the break between Terms 3 and 4).
Which is interesting, because in 2004, the Liberals got NO swing to them on non-ordinary votes in Forde. This makes sense – Forde is fairly dense with younger families, relatively speaking. I suspect that similar effects will be seen in a number of other seats, too.
In short, don’t write off the idea of a hung parliament. There are a lot of reasons to think it *will* happen.
Note that we also haven’t factored in the possibility that Grey will fall to NXT on non-ordinary votes… or even on regular votes, since they’ve only recently started the 2CP count, and at this point, NXT is actually ahead (I believe ABC had notional 2CP based on assumed preference flows on Saturday night, since AEC was only reporting the Labor/Liberal count, and Labor was almost certainly not in the 2CP).
I honestly expect that Liberals will be on 73, and Labor on 71 (or 70, if Batman falls), with Labor grabbing Herbert, Hindmarsh, Cowan, and Forde (with a wafer-thin margin, less than 100), and NXT grabbing Grey. I expect Capricornia to end up slipping barely back to Liberals (margin of 70-80 votes).
NXT is ahead in Grey according to the latest AEC update but the 2PP figures are not correct.
Both Cassidy and Green have stated this morning that on their analysis the Coalition can’t get to 76. Cassidy says that most likely we will have another election before the end of the year.
If I was the Libs these are the deals I would look to do on each number of seats:
76 seats-rule outright with Katter or Wilkie as speaker
75 seats-confidence and supply deals with both Cathy McGowan and NXT, and have Katter or Wilkie as speaker
74 seats-deal with NXT, attempt to get Xenophon, Sharkie and Broadfoot into the ministry (outside cabinet to allow them some political room) to tie them down, Katter or Wilkie as speaker
73 seats-Confidence and supply with NXT, McGowan and Katter, offer them all ministries outside cabinet, Wilkie as speaker
72 seats-Libs are probably stuffed here, as Labor would also have 72 and could get abstention from Wilkie, confidence and supply from NXT and the Greens and have McGowan or Katter as speaker
As an aside, on 76 seats it would probably be worth doing a deal with McGowan to shore up an extra number as insurance if an LNP member goes rogue and tries to join One Nation or something like that during the term.
Sorry for the triple post, but in the 75 scenario the NXT could be swapped for Katter too, have a bet each way so that if Katter says no then go to McGowan, or if McGowan says no then go to Katter and so on.
Some problem there Shazza in your expansive options ……..
1) Both Wilkie and McGowan have categorically ruled out being speaker…(perhaps Katter too?)
2) McGowan has explicitly tweeted that she will not do a formal deal with either party…
3) Xenophon has stated NXT will not take any ministerial positions………
Obviously, all of this can change….
Glen
Capricornia is a Nationals not Liberals candidate/MP.
On 2) Yappo, there is plenty of wriggle room on that.
You have a range of options, from a formal coalition (officially being part of the government, and what McGowan has ruled out), confidence and supply (where you are not part of the government but you are ensuring you can keep them in power) or abstention (effectively on a government support vote you would abstain, leaving the Libs to get 75 out of 149).
Yes of course and both Willkie and McGowan has expressed that they would no block supply.
However, I was just pointing out that 4 or your 5 first options are excluded based on what the indies and NXT have already stated.
This doesn’t need to be complicated.
Assuming they fall short of a majority, the Coalition still retains first rights to govern being both the incumbent and the party with the most seats.
Turnbull will secure the support of Katter, McGowan, Sharkie and possibly Wilkie (though Wilkie has to be careful because he occupies a Labor seat). All will agree to back the government on confidence and supply, but retain the option to withdraw their support should they see fit to do so. On all matters of legislation they will have a free vote.
None of them will take a portfolio; they have no wish join a government with such a dubious mandate. Nor will they give up their valuable floor vote by becoming Speaker.
lol-de-lol at Katter being speaker .. he can’t speak and has little knowledge of or regard for the rules of parliament.
“lol-de-lol at Katter being speaker .. he can’t speak and has little knowledge of or regard for the rules of parliament”
It’s more about who’s willing really in a hung parliament, rather than who has the ability.
surely a government and parliament itself would become a complete laughing stock if Katter was speaker
I also seriously doubt that Katter would want to be in a position where his voice and vote were an irrelevance
@ Walsh. Yes that is basically the scenario I agree with.
Very easy for all indies to agree to the party with the most seats on supply issue. No confidence will be a different matter I’d suggest.
My mian issue to Shazza was pointing out that most of his stated options re oferring speaker and/or ministry positions are in fact not options based on statements. Though I’m sure Katter would take agriculture…. 😉
This on the ABC 30 mins ago:
McGown rules out hung parliament deals
Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, has just released a statement on the hung parliament. She says while it’s still a “hypothetical outcome”, she won’t be making any deals with either party.
“As I maintained throughout my successful election campaign, I am proudly independent and won’t be making any deals.”
Katter was asked what he would do if he was asked to be speaker “I would spit on it” he chortled .. I gather that means he doesn’t want the job.
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