Polls open on the east coast in fifteen hours. I thought I might open up a quick post to allow commenters to post general comments about the election.
If you have predictions feel free to post them below.
I have had a number of articles up at the Guardian in the last few days.
On Monday I wrote about the state of the polls.
Yesterday I wrote about the massive surge in early voting.
And my latest article about the ‘sophomore surge’ phenomenon has just gone up.
I will be posting another quick post tomorrow morning for election-day comments, and tomorrow evening I will be posting on a liveblog here, as well as contributing the Guardian’s liveblogging. I’m hopeful that the improved hosting systems for this blog will mean the website holds up better than it did in 2013, but if you can’t access it please just follow the Guardian liveblog to read up on my thoughts.
I’m new to this, but I’m going to have a stab and make some predictions based on what people have been saying on here and what I’ve read.
LNP hold Petrie, Brisbane and probably Bonner
Labor gain Forde, Longman and at least 2 of Flynn, Capricornia and Dawson
LNP gain Lilley and Blair (<– wishful thinking probably)
BLAIR – Most of the Labor vote in Ipswich is in Oxley, my impression is that Shayne Neumann isn't real popular and the LNP candidate (Harding) has been campaigning as the govt representative (sort of an MP outside of office).
LILLEY – I presume Wayne Swan would retire at the next election, when I think LNP would win the seat, if not this year, due to demographic change/greater affluence.
Senate make-up… no clue
BJA – expecting Forde and Longman to be Labor gains, but seeing Capricornia as a “maybe” and Petrie as a “LNP hold” is unreasonable. It’s just not going to happen. If Forde and Longman go, Capricornia and Petrie will have also gone, and Brisbane almost certainly as well.
I figure Hinkler may even be a show if Labor heavily populates polling booths with Medicare and Gonski placards ..
Glen, like I said just having a stab, I’m not using the numbers from last election as a guide.
Well of late the Lib fan club on here has been salivating at not only holding all their current marginals but also picking up a swag of Labor seats as well. If you recall the Libs won with 54% 2PP in 2013. But polling this time suggests an 8% point negative variation from 2013 election result. Both major parties are now 50-50 according to the polls.
So we have an 8% point differential yet the Libs are on track to hold everything and add to the collection. Methinks not!
Turnbull by 5 seats in reps. Govt dependent on cross benchers in the senate.
Prediction time! Here’s mine:
Labor to hold its gains in the redistribution, Barton, Dobell & Paterson, and pick up Eden-Monaro, Macarthur, Page, Capricornia, Petrie, Cowan, Burt, Lyons and Solomon.
Xenophon to pick up Mayo.
Libs to pick up Fairfax.
The breakdown in the next House of Reps would then be Coalition 79 ALP 66 Others 5.
I can’t be bothered with Senate predictions.
On the current evidence I’d be expecting the Government to be returned with a narrow majority in the HoR. My stab at a prediction is: LIB/NAT 77, ALP 64, GRN 2, NXT 2, KAP 1, Independents 4
The Libs are likely to get between 77 and 82 seats. Shorten is kidding himself if he thinks there is a general swing of 4 per cent. It is certainly not showing up in Lib polling or public marginal seat polling. I reckon the 2pp will be about 51.3/48.7. There is a late swing to the Government and the green vote is probably overstated as usual. the lib Pv will be around low 43s and a differential of about 7.5 on primary which ALP just can’t close.
Any comments on specific seats, DB?
The polls aren’t 50/50. They were early in the campaign but not now. I actually make the reachtel poll 51.3/48.7 based on last election preferences. The others are hard because they are rounded. My records indicate the Libs haven’t done worse than 50/50 on preferences excluding Greens. And historically if you lose primary votes you generally pick up higher other preferences. I think Peter Brent and dr bonham have discussed this at length.
Don’t be surprised if the Libs pick up 3 or 4 off Labor gross, not nett.
Mark, can’t see Libs holding Eden Monaro, Lyons, Solomon, Barton, do bell, page, and the nth qld seats are a problem. I reckon they may have net gains in vice and sa, subject to NxT. watch out for Greenway. Don’t think Windsor or Oakley will succeed.
My own prediction:
Labor gain from Liberal: Petrie, Capricornia, Page, E-M, Lyons, Solomon, Burt, Cowan, and one “somewhere else”.
Labor notional retain: Barton, Paterson.
Labor loss to Greens: Batman
Labor loss to Liberal: Dobell (notional), one “somewhere else”
LNP notional retain: Fairfax
LNP loss to NXT: Mayo.
Liberal loss to National: Murray
LNP 81, Labor 63, Green 2, NXT 1, Inds 3 (I think that adds up right…)
Just to add a couple other ‘predictions’ outside QLD…
I think Barnaby will hold on
The Nats will pick up Murray
Oakeshott will take Cowper
Just guesses though…
Mark, I’m thinking it’s something like that. Generally there’s about 15-20 seats which change hands.
Was going to tip every seat but this is much easier! My own prediction:
Labor GAIN from Coalition: Capricornia, Flynn, Page, Eden-Monaro, Lyons, Solomon, Burt, Forde
Labor LOSS to Coalition: Chisholm, Greenway, Dobell
Labor LOSS to Green: Batman
Labor notional RETAIN: Paterson, Barton
Coalition notional RETAIN: Fairfax
Coalition LOSS to NXT: Mayo + one other?
Other interesting contests:
Werriwa: Likely to see a 2 – 3% swing to the Coalition
Bruce: Either very small swing to the Coalition (but not enough to win it) or small swing away (but well below the state average)
Petrie: Close but given Brisbane data, I’m going out on a limb and saying a narrow LNP hold. 2% swing.
Melbourne Ports: Danby will probably get up. Although I’m not ruling out a surprise.
Bendigo: Margin will stay largely the same in my view, the sophomore surge, statewide swing and usually comfortable margins will all be blunted by the CFA issue.
Parramatta: Close but Labor to hold with a 1 – 2% swing.
McEwen: Close. If not for the bumbling of the Liberal candidate, it would be very much in play. 1- 2% swing to Labor.
Macarthur: Will be the closest contest in my view. Given the recent troubles on the ground it may be *just* enough to the Liberals to hold. 3% swing to Labor.
Cowan: Close but Simpkins will hold. 3 – 4% swing to Labor.
Braddon: Tossup but I think the Libs will just get over the line. 2 – 3% swing to Labor.
Lindsay: Liberals will hold. 0 – 1% swing to Labor.
New England: Joyce will win. 52 – 48.
Cowper: Oakeshott will probably take this. 51 – 49.
Totals:
LNP 81, ALP 61, GRN 2. NXT 2, IND 4
The only seat I can see Liberals gaining from Labor is Melbourne Ports due to Danby’s how to vote shenanigans turning enough Labor voters Green to come 3rd and directing enough of the remainder to Liberals.
It is still Coalitions ballgame with a small chance to lose their majority. ALP don’t have enough gains to form govt. on their own. However, we will have a few surprises…..
Tas: Lyons to ALP. Uncertain: Bass
NT: Soloman to ALP
SA: Mayo & Boothby to NXT, Hindmarsh to ALP.
Possible Surprises: Grey, Makin or Wakefield. Sturt (outside chance)
WA: Burt & Cowan to ALP
QLD: Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn to ALP. Fairfax to LNP.
Uncertain: Brisbane. Possible Surprise: Lilley, Forde
Vic: Batman to GRN. Murray to Nat. Uncertain: Melbourne Ports to Lib.
Possible Surprises: Chisholm & Higgins
NSW: EM, Page, Macarthur to ALP. Barton, Dobell, Patterson & (ALP retains) . Cowper to IND. Greenway to Lib.
Uncertain: Gilmore, New Eng, Parramatta
Final: Coalition 74-80, ALP 65-69, Grns/Inds: 5-8
Labor gains from Liberals: Petrie, Capricornia, Page, Macarthur, Eden Monaro, Lyons, Solomon, Burt
NXT gains from Liberals: Mayo, Grey
Key Liberal/NAT holds: Brisbane, Bonner, Forde, Lindsay, Reid, Gilmore, Banks, Macquarie, Bass, Braddon, Cowan, Hindmarsh, Cowper, New England
Closest contests: Macarthur, Cowper, Gilmore
Coalition: 79, Labor: 64, Greens: 2, NXT: 2, IND: 2, KAP: 1
My prediction:
LNP Loss to ALP:
Qld: Forde, Longman, Petrie, Capricornia
NSW: Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur (+ Barton & Paterson)
Vic: Nil (no changes in any direction in Victoria)
SA: Nil
WA: Burt
NT: Solomon
TAS: Lyons
Other LNP Losses:
Mayo, Grey, Barker, Cowper
ALP Loss:
Dobell (notional)
Green Seats: Melbourne (ALP Hold in Batman)
NXT Seats: Mayo, Grey, Barker
Ind/Oth Seats: Kennedy, Indi, Denison, Cowper, (Barnaby to hold NE)
LNP:76
ALP:66
NXT:3
GRN:1
KAP:1
IND:3
Greenway and Macarthur will be very close but I’m tipping the ALP to just squeak across the line in both.
Overall I think the result will be worse for the government than generally expected. I’ve been expecting a hung parliament for most of the campaign but now believe its more likely the government will just scrape through with an absolute majority. Especially as it seems NXT will fall short in Stuart and Boothby and the ALP will miss out in Perth. There wont be much in it though!
If the polls are right and lnp are 50.8, then I don’t think it’s possible to lose with sophomore surge.
My predictions:
Coalition – 78 (-10 – gain Fairfax, lose Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur, Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn, Cowan, Burt, Solomon, Lyons, Mayo)
Labor – 67 (+10 – gain Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur, Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn, Cowan, Burt, Solomon, Lyons) – also hold all 3 districts made notionally Labor by the redistribution in Dobell, Paterso and Barton
Greens – 1 (n/c)
Others – 4 (n/c – NXT gain Mayo, PUP lose Fairfax)
TPP:
Coalition – 50.4%
Labor – 49.6%
So narrow Coalition majority. Though I wouldn’t be surprised with a whole range of results from the Coalition getting a similar result to 2013 and Labor getting a surprise majority.
Senate:
Coalition – 31
Labor – 27
Greens – 9
Nick Xenophon Team – 3
Jacqui Lambie – 1
Derryn Hinch – 1
Liberal Democrats – 1
Glenn Lazarus – 1
One Nation – 1
WA Nationals – 1
DB, if you’re still around…has the internal polling you’ve seen been in line with the public polling?
I have wondered whether there’s any “herding” in the polls, since they have all clustered very closely around 50-51 in the final week.
Before NXT or non-incumbent Ind victories;
Coalition -79
Labor -67
Other -4
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/6/29/1542508/-Modelling-the-2016-Australian-Federal-Election-Final-Week
Looking at the final Ipsos poll figures, I figured I’d make comparisons with the 2010 actual vote results, as I feel like it’s the most applicable equivalent election.
First interesting thing to note is that Labor is doing better on 2PP in NSW, worse in South Australia, and otherwise fairly similar.
In NSW, Lib/Nat down in primary vote while Labor and Greens are pretty much steady.
In Victoria, Labor is well down in primary vote, Lib/Nat down slightly, Greens up strongly.
In QLD, Labor down slightly, LNP steady, Greens down slightly.
In SA, both Labor and LNP well down (presumably due to NXT), Greens steady.
In WA, Lib/Nat steady, Labor very slightly down, Greens steady.
So there’s a lot of similarity, overall, if you discount the Greens improvements in Victoria and NXT’s strength in SA.
And as I’m sure you can guess, looking at those, both Labor and Lib/Nat are down, Greens up somewhat, in National primary vote.
It’s worth remembering that there’s pretty large margins of error on the state numbers, though.
When I ran through it the other day I came up with:
LNP 76
Labour 66
Greens 2
NXT 2
KAP 1
Independents 3 (Oakeshott, McGowan, Wilkie)
For what it is worth: Labor gain from Liberal: Petrie, Longman, Capricornia, Flynn, Page, E-M, Macarhtur, Solomon, Burt. Labor notional retain: Barton, Paterson. Labor loss to Greens: Batman Labor loss to Liberal: Dobell, Greenway and two Victorian seats LNP notional retain: Fairfax LNP loss to NXT: Mayo and one more (Barker?) Liberal loss to National: Murray Independent loss to National: Indi LNP 82, Labor 64, Green 2, NXT 2, Wilkie, Katter There are some lineball seats that I think the LNP hold – all three Tassie seats, Dobell, Banks and Forde. That said I have marked Petrie, Macarthur and Longman. I have made lineball calls each way.
Also on WA I just feel the last week has cost shorten any chance to overcome the large margins. But i have no local knowledge so really am making an educated guess.
Victoria – If I had to guess Chisholm and Bendigo, but it could be McEwan or Bruce.
SA – nothing would surprise me in SA due to preference flow but I am guessing. Could even a Labor seat like Wakefield go to NXT???
Lastly – my roughie is Hinkler. This is a three way showdown and dependent on preference flow. It is hard to see the LNP losing, but I am hearing strange things from that area about the mood on prepoll. I don't have it in my list but it is wortj watching.
I’ve always taken a rule with big predictions that I don’t go for the easy predictions. So I’m going to be a little bold with my predictions. I think it’ll land on a hung parliament.
Labor gain (or special case hold): Petrie, Capricornia, Brisbane, Flynn, Dawson, Solomon, Eden Monaro, Dobell, Page, Paterson, Macarthur, Barton, Burt, Lyons.
Possible/split chance: Forde, Bonner or Flynn (one of these three – I’m going with Forde), Braddon or Bass (I’m going with Braddon), Cowan or Hasluck (I’m going with Cowan), Hindmarsh or Macquarie (I’m going with Macquarie)
Liberal gain: Fairfax
National gain from Liberal: Murray
Greens gain: Batman
NXT gain: Mayo, Grey
Independent gain: Cowper (Oakeshott)
Final totals: Labor 71, Green 2, Coalition 71, NXT 2, KAP 1, Independent 3
This is quite a bullish prediction, I know. Is it the most likely outcome? No, probably not. But it’s how I’m going for my prediction, in part because, if I’m right, it’ll be incredible as a prediction, whereas if I’m wrong, it’s not a big deal.
My gut feel is
Labor notional Retain . –Paterson,Barton.
” ” ” lose Dobell
Labor gain 2 of Petrie, Capricornia, & Flynn.
Solomon, Burt, E -M, Page, Macarthur, Lyons. Labor will fall short in one of these.
so OVERALL
labor 62
GREEN 2
Indi NXT 6
LNP 80
Labor losses Batman , Chisholm, Greenway.
Lib losses Mayo, + 1 other to NXT.
Libs will lose 2 more to labor, &. GAIN Fairfax.
Libs will lose Murray to Nats
Again , my gut is telling me QLD…. i’m not at all convinced of any swing at all. Labor might well end up empty handed.
i’d be unconvinced about some NSW seats except for the obvious success of labor’s totally fraudulent Medicare campaign.
Expect a change, as a result (of this success ) to laws on political advertising, to closely align them to other trade practice law. Any CEO trying such a stunt would be in jail.
Expecting to win but starting up the “we wuz robbed” already regardless?
kme
Not at all.
I just believe that ALL POLITICIANS should have to work very very hard to earn their (OUR ) votes. If they can easily skate by, by spending lots of money on false advertising,how does that serve our democracy ???.
Does that encourage a vision, a plan , even a direction ??? Of course not.
Jut because you love one side of politics kme ,don’t assume i do. I dont’
Tomorrow morning (maybe even later if it’s close!) we have to come back here to see who had the closest prediction!
winediamond: It seems to me that all the parties like to make lurid claims about what those other vandals will do in Government, and that such claims are not exactly “false”, being predictions of how the future will turn out. Labor people would probably have the same kinds of gripes about the Coalition’s “chaos on our borders” schtick, for example.
Thankfully I don’t see either major party trying to regulate political speech in this way – apart from anything else, can you imagine how much it would politicise the court system if judges ended up being asked to to decide on the merits of every political claim and counter-claim in an election campaign?
Doctors are touting a $15 fee rise directly due to the Liberal freeze .. Yesterday we were told there’d be no rises .. Who should be charged with fraud whinediamond?
Sadly I never got around to predicting every seat. Anyway, here goes nothing.
Labor gain from Coalition: Petrie, Capricornia, Lyons, Solomon, Braddon, Eden-Monaro, Page, McArthur, Brisbane, Cowan, Burt
NXT gain from Coalition: Mayo
Coalition gain from Labor: Melbourne Ports
Coalition gain from PUP: Fairfax
LNP: 78 ALP: 67 Other: 5
take Glen’ s prediction as the starting point… chances in Dawson, Robertson, Herbert,
Longman and Dickson, ind….. New England
I do not see the ALP losing any seats to the libs.
ohh missed Brisbane and Bonner
I’m very curious why everyone (not just here) thinks Oakeshott is a better chance than Windsor. I would’ve thought Windsor a stronger candidate all round, but maybe there was some polling or intel I missed somewhere.
I also think confidence about the Nats gaining Murray or Indi is misplaced. The Nats did terribly in the last Victorian state election and I doubt very much they’ll be surging now, even if they do have a strong candidate in Murray and a terrible Liberal candidate in Indi.
Murray is more of a Nationals area than a Liberals area. Apparently the Nats ran a poor candidate in 1996 which allowed the Liberals to pinch it. That’s not the case in 2016.
I personally find it hard to credit either of Windsor and Oakeshott winning over enough National voters, given they sided with Labor last time. But obviously they’re getting votes from somewhere to make it very uncomfortable for the Nats.
LNP. 73
ALP. 67
Green. 2
NXT. 3
KAP 1
Wilkie 1
McGowan 1
Oaken shot 1
WA Nats 1
kme
If business is regulated, controlled, & measured effectively through trade practice law, & it is, why should political parties be exempt ???
Using the border protection debate is a poor example (lurid claim , schtick, or otherwise ). How about Fraser using the scare of capital gains tax on the family home ???.
Or if ” they “stuff the economy we’ll end up like most third world economies. That would mean things like a tax on second mortgages, wealth tax, death duties, etc, etc. YES i know this can be dismissed as incredible, but is it impossible ???.
Are you getting a picture of where this WILL head if unchecked ???.
Besides which i note you have ignored the proposition that if negativity was not so effective, then other alternatives would be needed. Such as a positive, plan, vision, god forbid !!!
This goes well beyond politics, to the foundation of our democracy.
Labor has positive plans .. the tories have a nebulous mantra
Bonham’s model…. Coalition 79, ALP 65 & others 6 kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/07/final-poll-and-campaign-roundup-was-it.html?m=1
Dubopov
i already don’t do bulk billing & pay a “gap” to my GP, so do many others.
. Doctors can whinge all they like about not getting enough money, & if you believe it – good on ya.
It is still PROPAGANDA . If you think that Goebels was right “that a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth” WELL DONE!!!.
Try turning your mind to something constructive for once.
A real health policy that is sustainable cost wise.
Making health the state responsibility that it truly is, & getting rid of the commonwealth (health) department.
Death with dignity. Instead of torturing people to death, at vast public expense.
Making private health insurance compulsory for high income earners.
Btw Labors “positive plans” come at the price of a huge debt legacy to the next generation. If you are comfortable effectively stealing from a future generation, what does that say ???
It seems that no one here really picked the Tas tsunami and the group of western Sydney seats……a couple of pundits infer either one or the other but not both.
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