NSW redistribution – notional vote figures

By
Ben Raue
-
51

I’ve been getting a bunch of questions about the relative strength of parties in the proposed new federal electorates which were released by the AEC yesterday.

William Bowe at Poll Bludger released notional two-party-preferred figures yesterday, and my calculations are pretty close to his, but I’ve also added primary vote figures for Labor, Coalition, Greens and “other”.

The AEC has released data on which ABS Statistical Area 1 units (the smallest analytic unit available) are in which seats, both on the existing boundaries and on the draft boundaries. I then mashed this up with Parliamentary Library data on how the primary vote and the two-party-preferred vote is estimated to have been split up by SA1 at the 2013 election to produce estimates.

The following table provides the 2PP for Labor at the 2013 election (you can derive the Coalition figure by subtracting the percentage from 100), the change in that 2PP due to the redistribution the primary vote for Labor, Coalition, Greens and other, and the proportion of the new electorate which was not in the existing electorate.

The table is below the fold. Enjoy!

Voter group ALP 2PP % ALP 2PP change ALP prim % LNP prim % GRN prim % OTH prim % % change
Banks 47.29 -0.88 40.01 47.57 5.04 7.38 19.10
Barton 57.48 7.79 44.60 35.13 10.14 10.13 27.77
Bennelong 42.26 0.03 32.49 52.96 8.42 6.13 0.03
Berowra 30.95 0.02 19.02 61.49 10.04 9.44 6.24
Blaxland 59.32 -2.11 53.30 35.03 3.32 8.35 21.79
Bradfield 29.07 -0.15 16.60 65.08 12.81 5.51 5.83
Calare 35.01 0.98 26.24 56.55 5.04 12.17 20.98
Chifley 60.92 0.37 52.67 31.80 2.66 12.87 0.39
Cook 34.28 0.63 26.12 59.71 5.90 8.26 25.33
Cowper 36.78 -1.51 23.57 54.03 10.57 11.82 32.65
Cunningham 61.31 1.43 47.01 32.41 11.36 9.22 7.82
Dobell 50.23 0.91 36.47 40.75 4.87 17.91 7.43
Eden-Monaro 47.13 -2.26 35.92 46.38 7.45 10.25 24.60
Farrer 28.36 -4.21 20.18 61.54 3.96 14.32 27.28
Fowler 65.25 -1.55 59.49 29.43 3.30 7.78 49.04
Gilmore 46.20 -1.15 34.24 47.43 9.06 9.27 19.79
Grayndler 65.13 -5.21 44.38 30.18 20.40 5.04 35.04
Greenway 52.96 -0.02 44.47 39.96 3.63 11.95 4.17
Hughes 38.23 -1.10 29.70 55.52 5.88 8.89 35.30
Hume 35.99 -2.54 25.31 56.48 5.30 12.91 45.04
Hunter (formerly Charlton) 55.69 -3.54 44.61 32.11 6.05 17.24 47.07
Kingsford Smith 52.76 0.02 42.00 43.47 9.82 4.70 0.00
Lindsay 46.99 -0.02 39.00 46.65 3.07 11.29 0.00
Lyne 36.44 1.21 23.80 53.94 6.31 15.96 42.09
Macarthur 46.43 7.79 37.95 45.70 4.13 12.21 39.74
Mackellar 31.19 0.03 17.25 62.42 14.19 6.14 0.00
Macquarie 45.49 -0.03 30.97 47.40 11.10 10.53 0.00
McMahon 52.58 -2.74 46.76 42.46 3.06 7.73 28.69
Mitchell 28.61 0.69 21.11 64.82 6.39 7.69 3.20
New England 30.24 0.95 13.74 53.95 4.75 27.57 14.15
Newcastle 59.44 0.61 44.25 33.16 11.69 10.90 23.06
North Sydney 34.34 0.23 20.04 60.85 15.54 3.57 5.32
Page 46.87 -0.61 35.65 46.21 9.04 9.10 27.19
Parkes 30.12 2.47 22.45 60.62 4.68 12.25 24.04
Parramatta 51.41 0.84 42.24 43.44 5.22 9.10 10.70
Paterson 50.37 10.15 39.75 41.12 6.32 12.81 49.90
Reid 49.27 0.12 40.61 46.75 7.02 5.62 16.07
Richmond 51.69 -1.29 34.33 39.22 15.48 10.98 14.97
Riverina 31.15 2.32 21.81 58.25 3.67 16.27 43.24
Robertson 46.89 -0.11 34.65 43.52 5.61 16.22 2.74
Shortland 57.43 0.22 48.23 36.43 6.30 9.03 16.15
Sydney 63.34 -1.31 44.15 31.67 18.17 6.01 12.92
Warringah 34.71 0.06 19.34 60.79 15.53 4.33 0.01
Watson 58.93 2.12 50.55 36.45 6.24 6.77 19.04
Wentworth 31.64 -0.64 18.98 64.02 14.33 2.67 0.01
Werriwa 57.46 5.22 50.21 35.07 3.23 11.49 44.24
Whitlam (formerly Throsby) 56.49 -1.28 43.80 38.75 5.97 11.48 16.78
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51 COMMENTS

  1. Hi Ben. Looking at your figures, I would suspect that you have not allowed for effect of the transfer on strong voting areas from one division to another. For example, in my area. Cunningham loses the liberal-leaning areas of Heathcote and Engadine in the north. At the same time, it picks up the very strong labor-voting areas of Port Kembla, Warrawong and Kemblawarra in the south. This should now make Cunningham a super-safe Labor seat. Whereas Whitlam (Throsby) loses Port Kembla, Warrawong and Kemblawarra. At the same time, Whitlam picks up Liberal-leaning areas of Kiama, Shellharbour and Bundanoon. Whitlam now has to become marginal Labor, at the best.

  2. As I noted at Poll Bludger, the ALP is very fortunate that the three biggest movements all happen to be in places that are of enormous benefit to them – Paterson, Barton and Macarthur.

    Aside from the amalgamation of two ALP held seats, there’s really nothing that helps the Coalition in a corresponding way. Yes a few Lib/Nat margins get padded (e.g. Eden-Monaro, Gilmore), a few ALP margins parred back (e.g. Richmond, McMahon), but nothing that fundamentally changes the character of those seats.

    Your notional pendulum is interesting: Barton, Dobell and Paterson switch party status. (The latter two presumably within the MoE.) A loss of three for the Coalition, a net gain of two for Labor.

    I’ll also repeat the nit-pick I made of William. Four seats were unchanged – Bennelong, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Mackellar – where you have (intriguingly very tiny) changed margins.

  3. David, the changed margins in those seats are likely rounding errors. The reason there is 0.03% of the Bennelong population comes from other seats is because there were 30 people redistributed from Reid to Bennelong classified as “migratory shipping”.

  4. John, I’m pretty confident that these margins are roughly in the right zone. They are based on figures produced by the library based on which polling place people voted at.

    The areas transferred from Cunningham to Hughes that you say are “Liberal-leaning” around Engadine and Heathcote actually have a 50-50 2PP. You’re right that the newly-added areas are very strong – 71% 2PP. But they only make up slightly less than 8% of the new seat, so they don’t have a huge impact on the margin.

    I also don’t think you can describe the areas transferred into Whitlam as Liberal-leaning. Sure, they gained a 58% 2PP in the Bundanoon area, but Labor won 58% 2PP in those areas gained from Gilmore (eg. Kiama and Shellharbour), and those areas are five times as big.

  5. Interestingly the Green vote in Sydney has increased, although it has lost its share of Balmain, and the remainder of Leichhardt council. The Greens did have a horrendous time around Balmain in the 2013 election and looking at state election results, although not the greatest indication, it shows they should have a better result next time around. I think from the next election in both Sydney and Grayndler it will be close between the Libs and Greens as to who will finish second, on the other hand, in Wentworth, Turnbull’s seat, there is no doubt about his control, but the possibility of the Greens coming second in front of Labor is now much higher, they definitely wouldn’t challenge him although, they would take some confidence out of that

  6. I thought Barton was one of the most surprising Labor losses in 2013. Its traditional marginal status appeared to be a thing of the past with McClelland holding the seat pretty handily throughout the Howard years.

    Nickolas Varvaris won it off the back of a 7.2% swing. He needs to do it all over again.

  7. Yes I incorrectly judged that the Balmain/Annandale area would outweight the southern parts of Marrickville LGA but actually the vote in the former was 17% and in the latter was 23%, and I think this is because it would be different for the state election results.

    I will do that at some point, but I still think it’s bad for Albanese that substantially more of his seat is now held by Greens state MPs than before the redistribution (let alone before the March state election).

  9. Grayndler and Richmond both require a similar Labor-Greens swing for the Greens to win, but Richmond is probably more complicated with the smaller 2PP margin.

  10. Ben
    Albo will be sweating on whether he gets Drummoyne etc, at the expense of the labor areas round Tempe. It is all over for him if the libs preference the Greens.Will be interesting to see if De Natale will (do a) deal with the Libs on preferences. From my POV what has he got to lose??.

  11. Tactically it makes sense for the Liberal Party to preference the Greens. But lately ideological purity has won the day and the Libs have not directed preferences to the Greens in any recent Labor-Greens contest.

    Any quid pro quo between the Greens and the Liberals would see the former hemorrhage support. Only a fool would enter into such a deal. Di Natale isn’t one.

  12. David Walsh
    (Historical) Precedent is certainly with you on this one.However all things change, & Di Natale has shown a deftness not seen with previous leaders of the Greens. Perhaps he could sell it ??. If so possibly there could be little hemorrhage ??.

  13. I don’t see any reason to believe there would be any actual ‘deals’ between the Greens and Liberals on preferences, except perhaps as has been the case in limited circumstances such as a Lib v Nat contest, or perhaps conceivably in a deal to dud a specific minor party or independent, but any deal that disadvantages Labor wouldn’t happen. It’s still far more important to the Greens to be dealing with Labor, and a pretty hefty chunk of the Greens voting base, particularly in the inner city, wouldn’t accept it. A Greens-Liberal preference deal would not help the Greens win Grayndler because they’d lose too many primary votes from it.

    Not to mention that it’s not di Natale’s choice, it’s an organisational decision for the Greens with different processes in different states, some more centrally determined than others, but it’s not particularly plausible that a federal leader could get a Liberal preference deal agreed to.

  14. The Liberal Party won’t engage in visibly preferencing the Greens. Although it has been know that deals are often made, even as recent as the last Victorian State election where the Greens ran open how to vote cards in about a dozen marginal electorates in exchange for the Liberals running an open how to vote card in Melbourne.

  15. As well inner-city Liberal voters tend to be more favourable of the Greens, as they are much more socially progressive than a lot of other Liberal voters, therefore the ability of getting there preferences isn’t actually as hard as preconceived. The Greens themselves have been known to play the game, such as in the NSW state election where they handed out blue how to vote cards in Balmain saying to vote 1 Lib and vote 2 Green.

  16. Liam
    Thanks for the extra detail. Do you think that overall these examples signify, a changing, or more sophisticated attitude from the Greens ??.
    Cheers WD

  17. There is no doubt that the Greens have matured as a political party over the last few years. Especially, in order to gain a larger parliamentary presence they have changed their mindset. They now seem to be much more cunning, like doing preference deals with PUP, especially in the Vic state election. My personal view is that they are an established party, they are no longer seen as a protest party solely.
    So, yes i would argue that they are much more sophisticated as a party.

  18. Conceivably Grayndler could give us the same sort of 30/30/30 split that the similarly configured Balmain did in 2011’s State cliffhanger…

    There’s not much joy for Albo in Drummoyne (where I live), it’s solidly Liberal turf now, and Balmain is heading that way too. Provided these affluent residents think they’re voting for the newly moderate DiNatale rather than ultra leftists like Rhiannon, the Greens could pick up quite a lot.

    The old school NSW Greens are simmering with hatred about the new Greens’ direction now, but the BMW and Lexus driving voters in the northern end of Albo’s new seat, where median property prices are approaching $2m, may well see things differently.

  19. With the Green vote so low in Drummoyne I feel that the Greens have never really tried there. With their vote around there being 10% if they could increase their vote to 15% – 17% that would bode well for them, especially if they could get to the same primary vote levels around Balmain in the recent state election.

  20. There’s a pretty extreme variation in the Greens vote in Balmain between state and federal – I’ve seen some analysis for the new Grayndler on state election results having Labor and Greens neck-and-neck on about 34%.

  21. the variation really is extreme between the Greens results in state and federal elections, In the Birchgrove booth, the Greens achieved 14.9% in 2013 but in the 2015 state election the increased their vote to 35.6%.
    I don’t really understand the level of disparity between the two results but i gather it would be up to a range of factors.

  22. Ben, & Liam
    Another big game changer will be whether Albo re- contests Grayndler or shifts to Barton. The loss of his personal vote might be crucial
    However i’m hopeful that Mark Mulcair will influence the AEC to shift all these electorates slightly clockwise. This would be far more sensible than the bits, & pieces outcomes at present.
    Very interesting about the disparity. I wonder whether the Greens actually cut into the Liberal vote in nett terms, or whether they simply decimate the (primary) Labor vote

  23. It’s a possibility that Albanese switches to Barton, although the probability is that he will stay put in Grayndler. If he did change to Barton the left would need to trade a winnable seat to the right, that may have implications with Fitzgibbon and preselction battles in Hunter/Paterson/Newcastle/Shortland/Dobell etc. As well if Albanese was to contest Barton and a dropkick from the NSW right were to contest there is every chance that the ALP could lose Grayndler.
    Honestly for the sake of speculation, the norm is the most likely outcome.

  25. Re the loss of Barton in 2013, it was on the cards just based on the expected swing in NSW and the retirement of a long-term sitting member. My seat prediction model (state swing data lifted off Bludger Track) correctly had it as an extremely narrow Coalition win, which was satisfying given that even the betting markets did not switch it in their mad meltdown of the last 48 hours, when a wide range of ALP seats were given away that did not actually fall.

    If the redistribution proposal is approved then I can’t see how the seat could be retained.

  26. Yeah, I’ve worked out a nice way to allow the Southern Highlands to go into Hume, so Hume doesn’t have to push right up into suburban Sydney. It’s basically just my initial proposal with the Highlands going into Hume instead of Gilmore.

    The re-arrangement in the Inner West seems to work out too. Drummoyne into Reid, Auburn into Blaxland, Marrickville returned to Grayndler, Kyle Bay and Blakehurst return to Banks. It really tidies up a lot of the problems in one hit.

  28. Mark Mulcair
    Your persistence is remarkable, amazing,& extrordinary !!!. Don’t know how you do it. Good that someone does, & can (bear it ) !!!.
    i hope my comments on the expected (population) growth rates, influenced you, & made your task easier. All in all it sounds good, & we will wait & see whether your voice of reason is heard by the highthro deaf ears of the AEC!!. Can’t wait to see your material in the objections next month
    cheers WD

  30. Firstly, I promise to everyone here that I am not paying Winediamond! :-p

    I must take issue with WD though….the AEC do a very difficult job, and whatever boundaries they produce, they will upset somebody. They have narrow criteria to work with, so creating “perfect” boundaries and population everywhere is impossible.

    I personally would support enlarging the Parliament, and I’m not sure why it hasn’t even been spoken about. Politically it would be smooth sailing, since every party would support it.

    If the Senate were expanded to 14, that would be the most logical way. All parties would support that too.

  31. Mick Quinlivan
    We need less/ fewer POLITICIANS. Not MORE .
    A better Federation model would be to abolish 4 state, & territory govts, leaving open an option for NZ to become our fifth state. WE would still have 150 H of Rs & 75 senators, but they would be far more representative.
    This would then provide momentum, & impetus to clearly define state/ fed roles, responsibilities, & funding. The savings in govt expenditure would be almost incomprehensible.
    By thus making the Fed Govt effectively a laizez faire govt, Political debate in the nation would be forever irrevocably transformed, & moved to a higher ,more relevant level.

  32. Mark Mulcair
    But you promised…!!!!
    If you like you can defend the AEC, BUT WHY !!!!??. Understandably i guess you want to be more polite , & positive. However i choose a more direct (confrontational ) approach. I don’t agree that their criteria are so narrow, although clearly they will not, & can not please all.
    The AEC could, & ought to take far more notice of the submissions they call for. Especially those of the quality of your good self.

  33. Looks like Albanese will shift to Barton from Grayndler. Labor’s right faction looks like giving Barton straight to the left. If this happens Labor would need preselect someone likeable and gifted, my tip would be Verity Firth, former state member for Balmain and minister for education. Even if this happened the contest could be very tight against the Greens.

  37. Liam
    Albo would be well advised to go for Barton IMO. Like you i don’t see a future for the ALP in Grayndler. Particularly without Albo’s personal vote. When my EX (lifelong leftie , Greenie, & member of get up) was head of Bill Crews school, she met Premier Hottie, & Verity (ed minister), & was far more impressed with Verity.
    What happens in Mc Mahon, & Fowler will be interesting. I wonder if Chris Bowen has the nerve to stay in Mc Mahon ??. He has lost all his strong Fairfield base, & his margin is now only a couple of %. Demographics are running strongly against the ALP in this part of the west.
    A move to the ultra safe Fowler would be easily defensible for Bowen, & remove the talentless, timeserving Chris Hayes (brother of some union boss).
    OTOH Mc Mahon would then become a 50-50 proposition without Bowen’s personal vote. Also Ray King was not a great candidate in 2013. If the Libs found someone better who knows….??.

  38. No, Darcy Byrne is a leading Labor light. Close to Albo, well known in Leichthardt. You might be thinking of Fiona Byrne, who was the Green candidate for Marrickville some time ago and had a bit of national exposure over Israel/BDS issues.

  43. Hi Ben
    Are you working on a full pre fed election map of NSW, or will you wait until the redistribution boundaries are finalised ??.

  44. I’m working on the map now. I do it on the draft boundaries, because usually the final version is pretty close to the draft and it’s easy to update. 44 seats done, I’m working on Cowper now.

  45. PJ, WD, Darcy Byrne is more than just “close” to Albo, he works (or used to) in his electorate office. He only recently regained the Mayor’s position at Leichhardt – with a little bit of help from the Libs. He’ll be looking for a new job though, as iPart has effectively sacked him (and all of Leichhardt Council). Confusion about him being a member of the Greens is understandable. Despite the fact that they despise one another, their positions on most issues that matter are identical.

    There are a couple of other ambitious Labor mayors in this part of the world though, so Darcy will have competition, apart from the already mentioned Verity Firth. Angelo Tsirekas, long time popularly elected Mayor of Canada Bay lives in Drummoyne (just on the borders of the new Grayndler), though its rumoured he’s interested in Reid. And then there’s Burwood’s Mayor John Faker, biding his time after being shafted by Sussex St… Wonder what he was promised for going quietly in Strathfield in favour of Jodi MacKay?

    But, sorry (I’m getting carried away). All this speculation is a bit premature.

  46. Teddy B
    It all sounds as if there is almost enough for a movie, or at least a tv drama !!. The council amalgamations do add a new element entirely don’t they??.
    Although Craig Laundy must be packing the darkies right now!!. i don’t see how the proposed boundaries of Reid can stand. Drummoyne has no place in Grayndler. So i think Reid won’t end up being fertile ground…
    Having said that, it sounds as though John Faker might be a formidable opponent for Laundy.

  48. Chris Bowen has no worries in his seat. Normally the draft boundaries tend to stay pretty much the same…… but given all the strange changes who knows….. Eg If Drummoyne goes back into Reid then Barton, Banks and cook need changes.

  49. Mick Quinlivan
    You are most likely quite right. However as i said, i wonder how Bowen really feels??. 3 things:
    1/ Fowler is ultra safe.
    2/ Mc Mahon is not (now). so the question is does he have the courage, & nerve to stay ??
    3/ i looked at the liberal vote in the 2 state elections of his new areas, & they were pretty out there. So there are a lot of voters who have voted against labor in the past.

  50. Jumping to Barton may be short-sighted of Albanese. Assuming these changes stand, the next redistribution could easily return Barton to its marginal 2013 configuration. By which time there’ll be a different ALP member for Grayndler who’ll be under no obligation to step aside.

    I think fleeing McMahon is wussy of Bowen. A 2.5% buffer may look dicey, but surely Labor can’t go much lower than the dreadful 2013 result. That said, moving Hayes on would be no great loss.

    Fitzgibbon and Conroy both have equally strong claims to Hunter. But surely Labor’s interests are best served by Fitzgibbon cashing in his personal vote (he’s been the member for 20 years) against Baldwin in Paterson.

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