I’ve been getting a bunch of questions about the relative strength of parties in the proposed new federal electorates which were released by the AEC yesterday.
William Bowe at Poll Bludger released notional two-party-preferred figures yesterday, and my calculations are pretty close to his, but I’ve also added primary vote figures for Labor, Coalition, Greens and “other”.
The AEC has released data on which ABS Statistical Area 1 units (the smallest analytic unit available) are in which seats, both on the existing boundaries and on the draft boundaries. I then mashed this up with Parliamentary Library data on how the primary vote and the two-party-preferred vote is estimated to have been split up by SA1 at the 2013 election to produce estimates.
The following table provides the 2PP for Labor at the 2013 election (you can derive the Coalition figure by subtracting the percentage from 100), the change in that 2PP due to the redistribution the primary vote for Labor, Coalition, Greens and other, and the proportion of the new electorate which was not in the existing electorate.
The table is below the fold. Enjoy!
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | ALP 2PP change | ALP prim % | LNP prim % | GRN prim % | OTH prim % | % change |
| Banks | 47.29 | -0.88 | 40.01 | 47.57 | 5.04 | 7.38 | 19.10 |
| Barton | 57.48 | 7.79 | 44.60 | 35.13 | 10.14 | 10.13 | 27.77 |
| Bennelong | 42.26 | 0.03 | 32.49 | 52.96 | 8.42 | 6.13 | 0.03 |
| Berowra | 30.95 | 0.02 | 19.02 | 61.49 | 10.04 | 9.44 | 6.24 |
| Blaxland | 59.32 | -2.11 | 53.30 | 35.03 | 3.32 | 8.35 | 21.79 |
| Bradfield | 29.07 | -0.15 | 16.60 | 65.08 | 12.81 | 5.51 | 5.83 |
| Calare | 35.01 | 0.98 | 26.24 | 56.55 | 5.04 | 12.17 | 20.98 |
| Chifley | 60.92 | 0.37 | 52.67 | 31.80 | 2.66 | 12.87 | 0.39 |
| Cook | 34.28 | 0.63 | 26.12 | 59.71 | 5.90 | 8.26 | 25.33 |
| Cowper | 36.78 | -1.51 | 23.57 | 54.03 | 10.57 | 11.82 | 32.65 |
| Cunningham | 61.31 | 1.43 | 47.01 | 32.41 | 11.36 | 9.22 | 7.82 |
| Dobell | 50.23 | 0.91 | 36.47 | 40.75 | 4.87 | 17.91 | 7.43 |
| Eden-Monaro | 47.13 | -2.26 | 35.92 | 46.38 | 7.45 | 10.25 | 24.60 |
| Farrer | 28.36 | -4.21 | 20.18 | 61.54 | 3.96 | 14.32 | 27.28 |
| Fowler | 65.25 | -1.55 | 59.49 | 29.43 | 3.30 | 7.78 | 49.04 |
| Gilmore | 46.20 | -1.15 | 34.24 | 47.43 | 9.06 | 9.27 | 19.79 |
| Grayndler | 65.13 | -5.21 | 44.38 | 30.18 | 20.40 | 5.04 | 35.04 |
| Greenway | 52.96 | -0.02 | 44.47 | 39.96 | 3.63 | 11.95 | 4.17 |
| Hughes | 38.23 | -1.10 | 29.70 | 55.52 | 5.88 | 8.89 | 35.30 |
| Hume | 35.99 | -2.54 | 25.31 | 56.48 | 5.30 | 12.91 | 45.04 |
| Hunter (formerly Charlton) | 55.69 | -3.54 | 44.61 | 32.11 | 6.05 | 17.24 | 47.07 |
| Kingsford Smith | 52.76 | 0.02 | 42.00 | 43.47 | 9.82 | 4.70 | 0.00 |
| Lindsay | 46.99 | -0.02 | 39.00 | 46.65 | 3.07 | 11.29 | 0.00 |
| Lyne | 36.44 | 1.21 | 23.80 | 53.94 | 6.31 | 15.96 | 42.09 |
| Macarthur | 46.43 | 7.79 | 37.95 | 45.70 | 4.13 | 12.21 | 39.74 |
| Mackellar | 31.19 | 0.03 | 17.25 | 62.42 | 14.19 | 6.14 | 0.00 |
| Macquarie | 45.49 | -0.03 | 30.97 | 47.40 | 11.10 | 10.53 | 0.00 |
| McMahon | 52.58 | -2.74 | 46.76 | 42.46 | 3.06 | 7.73 | 28.69 |
| Mitchell | 28.61 | 0.69 | 21.11 | 64.82 | 6.39 | 7.69 | 3.20 |
| New England | 30.24 | 0.95 | 13.74 | 53.95 | 4.75 | 27.57 | 14.15 |
| Newcastle | 59.44 | 0.61 | 44.25 | 33.16 | 11.69 | 10.90 | 23.06 |
| North Sydney | 34.34 | 0.23 | 20.04 | 60.85 | 15.54 | 3.57 | 5.32 |
| Page | 46.87 | -0.61 | 35.65 | 46.21 | 9.04 | 9.10 | 27.19 |
| Parkes | 30.12 | 2.47 | 22.45 | 60.62 | 4.68 | 12.25 | 24.04 |
| Parramatta | 51.41 | 0.84 | 42.24 | 43.44 | 5.22 | 9.10 | 10.70 |
| Paterson | 50.37 | 10.15 | 39.75 | 41.12 | 6.32 | 12.81 | 49.90 |
| Reid | 49.27 | 0.12 | 40.61 | 46.75 | 7.02 | 5.62 | 16.07 |
| Richmond | 51.69 | -1.29 | 34.33 | 39.22 | 15.48 | 10.98 | 14.97 |
| Riverina | 31.15 | 2.32 | 21.81 | 58.25 | 3.67 | 16.27 | 43.24 |
| Robertson | 46.89 | -0.11 | 34.65 | 43.52 | 5.61 | 16.22 | 2.74 |
| Shortland | 57.43 | 0.22 | 48.23 | 36.43 | 6.30 | 9.03 | 16.15 |
| Sydney | 63.34 | -1.31 | 44.15 | 31.67 | 18.17 | 6.01 | 12.92 |
| Warringah | 34.71 | 0.06 | 19.34 | 60.79 | 15.53 | 4.33 | 0.01 |
| Watson | 58.93 | 2.12 | 50.55 | 36.45 | 6.24 | 6.77 | 19.04 |
| Wentworth | 31.64 | -0.64 | 18.98 | 64.02 | 14.33 | 2.67 | 0.01 |
| Werriwa | 57.46 | 5.22 | 50.21 | 35.07 | 3.23 | 11.49 | 44.24 |
| Whitlam (formerly Throsby) | 56.49 | -1.28 | 43.80 | 38.75 | 5.97 | 11.48 | 16.78 |
David Walsh
Bowen hasn’t fled Mc Mahon yet. However Labor can go lower, a lot lower in this part of Sydney. They already did in the last 2 state elections. Hayes really is a waste of space.
On the current scenario, if i were Albo i’d go to Barton. At the next redistribution there will doubtless be a new urban seat created, & it will likely be a labor one sourced in the city or close to it, as in the last state distribution. So if Albo wants to keep going in his sixties, he has options.
I don’t think Joel will be too keen to face off against Bob. Why would he pass up a sure thing in Hunter?? . What has the party done for him lately??.No i predict a very messy pre selection fight, which Joel will win. Do you think Pat Conroy has anything special to offer ??
Comments are closed.