Queenslanders go to the polls tomorrow morning to elect a new Parliament, three years after giving power to the Liberal National Party in a massive landslide, and reducing Labor to a rump.
While the LNP has maintained a small lead in most polls this year, yesterday’s Essential poll had Labor draw even with the LNP, polling 50% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Reachtel and Newspoll polls in the first week of January both had the LNP and Labor tied, 50-50, but in the intervening period the LNP has won every poll, if not by large margins.
In addition, there has been a smattering of electorate-level polls. Overall, these polls have all suggested a large swing to Labor, but not necessarily enough to change the government.
A Galaxy poll two weeks ago covered eight marginal seats, seven held by the LNP. Two had a solid Labor lead, and another four had a slim Labor lead, and in one seat the major parties were tied. Newspoll also conducted a poll of three marginal LNP seats in Cairns, Ipswich and central Queensland, suggesting a sizeable swing to Labor.
Quite a lot of the campaign has been focused on Campbell Newman’s seat of Ashgrove. Newman hasn’t won a single poll in his seat for a couple of years, and that includes at least two in the last two weeks. A Newspoll Ashgrove poll had Labor leading 51-49, and a Reachtel poll released earlier this week had Kate Jones increasing her lead to 54-46.
All of this opens up the very real possibility of the LNP holding onto power while Campbell Newman loses his own seat of Ashgrove. Campbell Newman has repeatedly insisted that Ashgrove and the state of Queensland will swing together, despite polls indicating otherwise, and the fact that a uniform swing sufficient to give Ashgrove to Labor would be barely half of that required for Labor to form government.
It’s not the only part of the LNP’s campaign that relies on fudging how elections work. The LNP has also been running hard on fears of a hung parliament and lack of public understanding about how preferences work, by suggesting that minor parties are “harvesting” preferences, and insisting that voters numbering preferences will help elect minor parties. In reality, the Queensland election is very different to Senate elections, and voters numbering preferences is only likely to help Labor.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with an election-day thread. On election night, I’ll be on the Election Nerds show on 2SER at 8pm Sydney time (7pm Brisbane time) discussing the results, along with the usual liveblog.
In the meantime, you can use this post as the traditional prediction thread. Post below what you think the result will be, being as general or as specific as you wish. As always, all 89 seat pages have open comment threads if you have thoughts about a particular seat.
Labor to form Govt. in the biggest upset since Keating won in 93 (and possible this will be a bigger upset).
No solid evidence for my prediction – gut feel only – but: momentum seems to be with Labor; LNP most likely won’t have a leader in Parliament so who are the voters for on the LNP side actually supporting for premier; Federal politics does matter; and Queenslanders are sick of the hot weather and grumpy people are more likely to give a vote against the incumbent.
Surprise result: Stretton to remain with LNP due to exhausting preferences from indi.
Won’t win but will do better than the average swing – LNP member in Logan.
Ashgrove to go with Jones.
LNP retains government… Late 40’s to very early 50’s. A slim but comfortable majority. LNP primary vote will be around 40-43%. Too high to come from behind in optional preferential. Labor will gain just shy of 30 seats, including a few of the independents.
Ashgrove closer than predictions, and won’t be decided tomorrow night due to the sheer number of pre polls that will need to be counted. No clear result on the night. Jones will probably win. A close result drastically increases the chances Newman stays on as premier regardless of the ultimate outcome.
Mackerras pendulum will be accurate, within 5 or so seats, as usual. Individual seat predictions will prove totally useless, as usual.
We know there will be surprises above and below the required swing – the hard part is to pick where?
If i had to have a stab in the dark, i’d say either Mount Ommaney or Springwood are candidates for +15% swings. Pine Rivers will definitely go.
Mundingburra, Barron River will survive down the pendulum, amongst the most marginals remaining in LNP hands below 11%. And there will be a bolter in a seat below 10%. Impossible to say which one, but Keppel, Bris Central and obviously Ashgrove spring to mind. If the swing is 10%, for every 15% margin lost, a below 10% margin will be retained.
Needless to say, if the LNPs primary vote drops below 40% they are gone. Labor will be above 37% and improved preference flows from the last election will do the rest. A scenario like this would be the greatest upset in Australian electoral history. I just can’t see it.
Lawrence Springborg will be Premier with 45 seats, Labor 40 seats and others 4 seats, taking us back to the glory days of the 90’s where no political party was game to screw anyone over.
I was pretty confident of 50 to 55 LNP seats until Australia day. It won’t be 55 now. I expect around 50, aka 48 to 52. Katter to retain two and lose condamine. Independents to pick up Mackay and Nicklin.
Thuringowa is a huge question mark. Knuth and the PUP candidate may save the lnp member by retaining most of the Katter vote. The anti LNP swing to Labor will put it in second but it may not get preferences off Knuth. So I can’t call the seat.
Maryborough will see Labors vote rise but Foley drop, this will save the LNP member.
Gympie is a lottery. LNP most likely but a Katter win won’t surprise.
On labor gains, well the Townsville and cairns area except hinchinbrook and maybe one of Thuringowa or Barron River. Also mirani and toowoomba north. In Brisbane everything below 10 percent is vulnerable and the swings will be inconsistent. I expect a surprise lnp hold on one or two seats. What will save the lnp is it will do well in the northern corridor and hold most of morayfield, murrumba, kallangur, pine rivers, pumicestone. It will also retain nearly all of stretton, Mansfield, Springwood, algester and sunnybank. I expect no Gold Coast seats to fall apart from maybe gaven
My prediction: LNP 49 ALP 36 Others 4.
Making predictions on a seat by seat basis is an impossible task given how much things will shift from the freak 2012 result.
Nonetheless, here’s my foolhardy attempt…
Labor will hold its current nine and the following 27: Algester, Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, Cairns, Capalaba, Cook, Ferny Grove, Gladstone, Greenslopes, Ipswich, Ipswich West, Keppel, Logan, Lytton, Mirani, Morayfield, Mount Coot-tha, Murrumba, Nudgee, Sandgate, Stretton, Sunnybank, Thuringowa, Townsville, Waterford, Yeerongpilly.
LNP will oust the renegades in Condamine and Gaven.
Foley to win Maryborough.
My prediction: LNP 41 ALP 44 OTH 4
This is based though on a lot of seats that are too close to call like Pine Rivers. What I think is working in Labor’s benefit is that there is an idea you can lodge a protest vote and not change government which will ultimately cost the LNP. I believe that whilst labor is unlikely to make many gains from the GC, the vote of the right will be too split in Gaven, PUP will hurt the LNP in Albert and Broadwater. NQLD will also swing bad against the LNP. I don’t think Knuth will make any difference in Thuringowa if anything he will hurt the LNP vote. Labor’s campaign was taking dominance in the Northern Suburbs so I think there is a swing on there enough to deliver a seat or too. Bottom line I can’t see either party reaching a majority. LNP and ALP could swap but I just feel that there is a decent chance of a hung parliament. Its my guess I could be wrong
The seats I honestly think as too close to call are Broadwater, Pine Rivers, Gaven, Barron River. Based on the campaign I’ve called them for labor but with no confidence, every chance they would stay with the LNP
My prediction is:
LNP 50
ALP 35
IND 2
KAP 2
Check each individual seat’s thread for my thoughts.
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