More than two weeks after the Victorian state election, all 88 Legislative Assembly seats have been finalised, but there are a number of undecided Legislative Council seats.
Last Thursday, William Bowe at Poll Bludger produced a good summary, drawing on Antony Green’s calculator and Geeklections analysis.
Bowe splits up the possible winners into broad “left” and “right” groupings to have a sense of who will held the balance of power.
On the left, Labor has won 13 seats, the Greens have won 4 seats, and the Sex Party has won one. A nineteenth seat will definitely be won by one of those ‘left’ parties.
On the right, the Coalition has won 15 seats, and the Shooters and Fishers have won one. Two other seats will definitely go to parties of the right.
This gives the left 19 seats, and the right 18 seats. The remaining seats could be won by either the left or the right. If the left win two out of these three seats, then it will be possible for Labor to pass legislation with the support of the Greens and the Sex Party. If the right win two out of these three seats, Labor will need the support of both the Greens and at least one minor right-wing MLC to pass legislation: a much more difficult task.
At the moment, the most likely outcome would see the ‘left’ stay on nineteen seats, and the ‘right’ winning a combined 21 seats.
In this post, I will run through each region, focusing in particular on the six seats left to be decided.
We’re expecting these Legislative Council counts to be finalised later this week.
Northern Victoria
The Coalition has won two seats in this region, and Labor has won one seat.
The final two seats are a race between the Country Alliance, the Shooters and Fishers and Labor. The most likely outcome at the moment is that the Country Alliance and the Shooters and Fishers both win those seats.
One out of the Country Alliance and the Shooters and Fishers will definitely win a seat.
At the moment, the Shooters and Fishers win the fourth seat. For the final seat, the ALP gets knocked out before the Greens, and then Labor preferences elect the Country Alliance over the Greens. In this scenario, Sex Party preferences help elect the Shooters and Labor preferences help elect the Country Alliance.
The gap between Greens and Labor on the ABC calculator is 1,530 votes, or 0.35% of the vote. If Labor overtakes the Greens, then Labor will win on Greens preferences.
It is also possible that the Shooters and Fishers will be knocked out earlier in the count, which would result in either the Greens or the Sex Party winning that final seat.
If the Shooters fall behind Palmer United, then Country Alliance and the Greens both win seats on Labor preferences.
If the Shooters fall behind the Sex Party, then the Sex Party overtakes the Greens and win a seat alongside the Country Alliance.
Both of these possibilities for the Shooters are quite unlikely, based on a large gap in votes being overturned in late counting and through below-the-line leakage. The Shooters and Fishers are ahead of Palmer United Party at the key exclusion point by 4123 votes, or 0.94% of the total vote. The Shooters then lead the Sex Party by 5057 votes, which is 1.15% of all votes counted so far.
Southern Metropolitan
The Liberal Party has won two seats, and Labor and the Greens have each won one seat. The final seat is a race between the Liberal Party and the Sex Party.
At the moment, the Liberal Party is winning the fifth seat on the ABC calculator. If the Sex Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats at a key exclusion point, they will defeat the Liberal Party.
The gap at the key exclusion point is 3,411 votes, or 0.82% of the total vote. It seems most likely that the Sex Party won’t manage to close this gap, since they are relying on a significant amount of below-the-line leakage, despite relying on a large number of preferences themselves.
Western Metropolitan
Labor has won two seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens have each won one seat.
The DLP is likely to win the final seat, but there are small chances that the seat could go to one of two other minor parties.
If the Liberal Democrats stay ahead of the Liberal Party, or Voice for the West stays ahead of the Sex Party, either party could win the final seat instead of the DLP, but the chances are quite small as these gaps are substantial.
South Eastern Metropolitan
Labor and Liberal have each won two seats. The fifth seat is a race between the Greens and the Sex Party.
If the Sex Party stay ahead of Labor, they win on Labor preferences. If the Sex Party fall behind, they will elect the Greens over Labor.
At the moment the Sex Party is leading Labor by 948 votes. There is a sizeable chance that the Greens could overturn this lead, but it’s difficult to predict.
Western Victoria
The Liberal Party and Labor have each won two seats.
The final seat is wide open. The main contenders are Vote 1 Local Jobs, Shooters and Fishers and the Palmer United Party.
At the moment Vote 1 Local Jobs are winning the seat. The Shooters and Fishers are 1290 votes behind the Liberal Democrats at a key exclusion point: if they overturn that margin, they would likely win the seat.
Eastern Metropolitan
The Liberal Party has won three seats, and the Greens and Labor have each won one seat.
Eastern Victoria
The Coalition and Labor have each won two seats, and the final seat will go to the Shooters and Fishers.
Northern Metropolitan
Labor has won two seats, and the Liberal Party, Greens and Sex Party have all won one seat.
Thanks Ben. Just a quibble about your terminology – referring to below the line “leakage” implies that the preference distribution on the GVTs is somehow right or normal and the preferences that people assign below the line – their own real preferences – is anomalous. I know what you’re tryng to say but perhaps you could find a better word?
Correction – are anomalous!
Note that the Calculator, at least for Northern Victoria, was erroneously using Weighted Inclusive Gregory until yesterday. It has now been updated.
The biggest change on the calculator is that Labor now is listed as winning the 5th seat in Northern Victoria at the expense of Country Alliance (the other 4 are 2 L/NP, 1 Labor, 1 Shooters).
I think this is most likely what will happen, though it’s exceptionally close–the ALP’s “calculator lead” over the Greens at the critical count is 186 votes. This includes 1615 BTLs for Labor and 7,266 for Greens (their own, Animal Justice, and Shooters’ surplus votes originally from Sex, Cyclists, and PUP). I can’t possibly see how the Greens leak less than Labor, let alone enough less to make up that margin, so I think Labor takes the seat.
This is a noteworthy “distorted” result. The Coalition provides 43% of the Shooters quota, yet ends up with 80% of the surplus thanks to inclusive Gregory. This goes to Country, and ironically hurts them because it means the Sex-Cyclists-PUP votes are worth much less to the Greens (from 2659 under WIGM to 940 under inclusive).
JP – “leakage” is the term that is used and I wouldn’t be trying to coin a new term when there’s one that’s used. It doesn’t carry any moral judgement, but people who vote below-the-line and don’t preference the way the party directs are anomalous.
Christopher – thanks for that update, that is a pretty significant correction.
Results appearing on Anthony Green’s bog – interestingly Greens beat the Sex Party in SE Metro
The VEC has just finished pushing buttons in these races and the final numbers are:
16 LNP
14 ALP
5 GRN
2 SFP
1 SEX
1 DLP
1 Vote 1 Local Jobs.
This means that legislation needs both Labor and Greens, and two extras. That could be the Shooters and Fishers, or 2/3 from the Sex Party, DLP and Vote 1 Local Jobs.
Now there needs to be a new Greens Leader , appointed from the Lower House. Hopefully will happen. Shame the DLP snuck in again!
BJH – Why would a leader need to be from the lower house? Surely out of a pool of 7 provisionally elected Greens representatives, they choose the best person for the job? As would the Fishers, the Nationals and the other parties?
Sky, the Premier and the Leader of the Opposition are in the Lower House. Sandell and Sam Hibbins are now in the Lower house. One of them should be the Leader of the Victorian Greens. That is where the main action is and where the media focus is. I am not talking about Greens MP’s preaching to the converted 10% of their regular voters. I am talking about someone reaching the other 90% effectively through the media! On a personal level , I have never been very impressed with the current spokesperson for the Greens in the Upper House. In fact, Colleen Hartland would have been much better value.
Shouldnt a first term member be concentrated on retaining their seat (and both of them got in by a whisper) rather than becoming leader and having to deal with the vote everywhere else?
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