The Daily Telegraph this morning reports a story that the NSW Liberal Party have approached recently-retired rugby league player Hazem El Masri as a candidate for the state seat of Lakemba at the 2011 state election.
It’s a fascinating story indicating how ambitious the NSW Liberal Party has become. El Mazri is a popular figure in the Lakemba area, as a former Bulldogs player, and if elected would be the first Muslim MP in the NSW Parliament, and possibly in all of Australia. Update: Nathan Lambert in comments points out that “Adem Somyurek in Victoria is a Labor MLC and an Australian Muslim.” Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane has regularly been considered next in line to take a Labor seat in Parliament, but has been repeatedly pushed aside for more prominent figures.
Of course, we have no idea has El Masri would perform as a campaigner in an election environment, but it’s safe to assume that he would grab attention like no other Liberal candidate in that part of Sydney and massively increase the Liberal Party’s presence in inner south-western Sydney. Lakemba is one of the most Muslim seats in the state. The 2003 seat boundaries were used for the 2006 census, which showed just over 15% of the population are Muslim, as well as a large number of Eastern Orthodox residents.
On the other hand, it’s worth recognising the scale of the task for El Masri to win the seat. Lakemba is not any old safe Labor seat, it is incredibly safe. At the 2007 election, the ALP polled almost 84% on two-party-preferred terms. Even after a large swing away from them at the 2008 Lakemba by-election following Morris Iemma’s resignation, the ALP still managed to outpoll the Liberal Party by more than two-to-one.
While you would expect El Masri to poll quite well, he would need a 20.5% swing as well as keep hold of the 14% swing to the Liberal Party gained in last year’s by-election.
On reflection, you would have to say that El Masri would probably not be able to win the seat, although it may be impossible to judge what could happen if the Labor Party continues to be as dysfunctional as they are now come March 2011. Rather than the Liberals trying to use El Masri to gain an extra seat in Parliament, it seems more likely that the party is using El Masri to open up another front on the ALP and force them to focus their limited resources on a heartland seat like Lakemba.
Hi Ben,
Re ‘El Masri… would be the first Muslim MP in the NSW Parliament, and possibly all of Australia’: Adem Somyurek in Victoria is a Labor MLC and an Australian Muslim.
Cheers Nathan
Can’t imagine that the Liberal Right would have been very happy; anti-immigration and frankly anti-Muslim nutjobs like David Clarke, Marie Ficarra & Greg Smith would find it harder to push their agenda. And on the other hand, why would El Masri want to join with people like that?
Still, if he does join the Libs Lakemba would be a genuine dark horse for the election. The Cabramatta by-election showed what a popular local Lib can do in Labor heartland.
Also the Tele claimed that Lakemba is ‘predominantly Muslim’ when, while very significant at 15%, isn’t really true; but I guess that’s tabloid journalism.
“Also the Tele claimed that Lakemba is ‘predominantly Muslim’”
I’m guessing they use the words Lebanese and Muslim interchangably. Obviously there would be a huge number of Lebanese Christians there are well.
As for El Masri, well I doubt he’ll win. But perhaps it will be one of those deals where running for an unwinnable seat earns Brownie points for the future. Seats like Granville, Kogarah, Rockdale, etc will likely be very marginal if the 2011 election goes how we all expect, so there might be a chance there in 2015.
Although it’s hard to imagine he would want to run for the Libs he may have some affiliation or contact with them. It’s even harder to imagine that they would just ask him out of the blue.
For reference here are the results when Craig Wing “ran” in the council elections in 2008.
Not amazing, but he contributed enough to that ticket to get the first candidate in that group elected.
He’s no chance.
I suspect that the ALP have also sounded out and approached El Masri as well. A further guess is that the Telegraph has exaggerated the likelihood of El Masri joining the Liberals. its just another way to kick the ALP while they’re down.
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