Charlestown and Newcastle results wrap

Yesterday’s twin by-elections in the Hunter region of New South Wales saw Labor regain two seats it had lost at the 2011 election – seats traditionally considered to be heartland Labor territory.

The results were never in significant doubt, but the results in the two seats are quite interesting.

In Newcastle, Labor is expected to win, but currently sits on less than 37%. Most of the remaining vote is split between an independent Liberal and a Greens candidate, and preferences are not expected to flow. On election night, a preference count was conducted between Labor and the Greens, but independent candidate Karen Howard came second, so a new count will need to be undertaken to confirm Labor’s victory.

In Charlestown, immediately south of Newcastle, the Labor result was much clearer. Labor won 49.7% of the primary vote, with the Greens second on 14.1%. After the distribution of preferences, Labor has won 70.4% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, an easy win.

Charlestown was an easy win, but it’s hard to compare that result to a general election due to the absence of a candidate to pick up the Liberal mantle. In Newcastle, Karen Howard appears to have won most of the Liberal vote from 2011, so it is possible to run a comparison. In Newcastle, the Labor vote increased by 6.3%, and the Greens vote increased by 5%. Karen Howard polled 10.4% less than the Liberal Party. If you assume Howard is a stand-in for the Liberal Party, the by-election points to Labor improving its position since the last state election, but not by enough to win the next state election. It should be noted, however, that by-elections are not good measures of statewide performance – last year’s Miranda by-election produced a much more emphatic swing to Labor. Polls suggest that Newcastle was more in line with statewide performance, but a by-election is not the best way to measure that performance.

In this post, I will break up the votes in each electorate into sub-areas, and post a series of maps illustrating the result, all over the fold.

For my guides to these by-elections (Charlestown, Newcastle), I broke up the polling places into sub-areas. For Newcastle, I split the seat into north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west. For Charlestown, I split polling places up between five key suburbs: Charlestown, Cardiff, Gateshead, Kotara and Warners Bay. Click through to the links to the pre-election guides for maps showing what areas these divisions cover.

Booth breakdown – Charlestown

Booth breakdown – Newcastle

Each table shows the primary votes for the top three candidates. The top-polling independent in Newcastle was Karen Howard, and in Charlestown it was Luke Arms.

In Charlestown, the Labor vote was highest in Gateshead and Cardiff, and lowest in Kotara, which is the only part of the seat in the City of Newcastle. The Greens came second in four areas, but Luke Arms won 16.7% and second place in Warners Bay. The swing to Labor was largest in Cardiff and Warners Bay, both at the western end of the electorate.

In Newcastle, Labor’s primary vote was over 40% in three areas, but was significantly worse in the south-east, polling only 27.4%. The vote for Karen Howard was highest at 36.5% in the south-east, and 23.8% in the south-west. She polled less than 20% in the north of the seat.

The Greens polled highest in the north-east, followed by the south-east. Labor regained the most votes in the south-west, with a swing ranging from 4.8% in the south-east to 7.7% in the south-west.

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!