Scottish independence: results live

Results summary – 32 out of 32 councils reporting

3:14pm – With the declaration of the result in Fife, it is now mathematically impossible for Yes to win. There are two more councils – Highlands and Moray – yet to report, but I’m going to leave the commentary here. I will update the tables later today when they are declared, and I plan to do another blog post tonight/tomorrow morning summarising the results, but that’s it for now.

1:54pm – Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow, has voted for independence, with 53%. Despite this result, it’s hard to see Yes winning.

1:46pm – Just passed the halfway mark with North and South Lanarkshire. Yes won their third victory in North Lanarkshire and No won 54.7% in the South.

1:18pm – Just added East Lothian and Stirling, which also voted No. Overall the No vote is over 53%, and the projection is about the same at 53.1%.

1:11pm – No has overperformed in Midlothian, winning 56%.

1:09pm – Yes is now only just behind by about 1400 votes – it’s too early to call this result. Yes did substantially better in West Dunbartonshire than at the 2012 council election.

12:55pm – We’ve just gotten two more results. In Dundee, Yes has won 57% of the vote. In Renfrewshire, Yes has won 47.2% of the vote. In both cases, this is above my “yes baseline”, so the projected result has narrowed significantly to 51% for No.

12:35pm – No won very, very narrowly in Inverclyde, with 50.08% of the vote.

12:06pm – No has won 53% of the vote in the Western Isles. While this is another very small council area, it’s an area that has been good for the SNP in the past, and because of this my model is now projecting over 60% for No (I’m sure this will drop).

11:51am – Another big No win in Shetland. So far three councils have all voted ‘no’, but while Yes were hoping for a win in Clackmannanshire, the No campaign was always expected to win big in Orkney and Shetland. The three councils cover a very small part of Scotland’s population, so it’s still too early to make any conclusions.

11:08am – Big win for No in the Orkney Islands – 67.8%. This is only just above the No baseline for this area. We also now have turnout figures from a majority of council areas. Aberdeen was also below the average – it appears urban council areas are not performing as well on turnout.

10:57am – Glasgow’s turnout is the lowest so far, on 75%. With Yes hoping for a big result in Glasgow, that is a blow.

10:48am – We now have turnout from 13 council areas, and in East Renfrewshire the turnout is over 90%.

10:34am – We have the first result in Clackmannanshire – 53.8% for No. My model suggests that the Yes baseline in the area was 48.5%, so my projection is predicting a larger No victory due to this council. However, it’s just one council area.

10:08am – The turnout in Dundee City – a strong area for Yes and the SNP – is 78.8%. Normally this would be very good, but is poor for this referendum so far.

9:32am – There are numerous reports of extremely high turnout, including a number of council areas reporting that over 90% of postal votes have been returned. Two councils have officially announced their turnout figures: 88.6% in Clackmannanshire and 83.7% in the Orkney Islands.

8:08am – YouGov have released an exit poll predicting 54% for No, and 46% for Yes.

8:00am – Welcome to the Tally Room coverage of the Scottish independence referendum. Polls closed one hour ago, at 7am AEST, or 10pm GMT. I’ll be covering today’s results in a minimal way as it is a work day, but I will be using the following tables to post the latest updates. We shouldn’t expect results for a number of hours. Election results will be announced by council area – there will be no breakdown of results by polling place, which means no gradual release of results. Each council will announce all its results at the one time. We should start seeing councils reporting their results from 11am, and we’re expecting the two biggest cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh at 2pm, Sydney time.

I have developed a model whereby I have generated my estimate of a “yes baseline” for each council area. Unfortunately it isn’t easy to map results of Scottish or UK elections onto council areas, so I have used the vote for pro-independence parties (primarily the SNP and the Green Party) at the 2012 Scottish local elections. In the case of the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland, the council elections were dominated by independents, so I have used the results of the 2011 Scottish election – conveniently all three council areas map perfectly onto a single constituency.

The model will compare the vote so far to the baseline vote in those councils which have reported, and use that, along with the turnout so far, to project turnout levels and the vote for the two sides of the referendum in the remaining council areas. I don’t need to tell you that this is only a rough guide. It will be difficult to accurately project the results as we go.

Once the results start flowing, I will move this introductory section to the bottom of the post and begin posting commentary under the results table.

Results by council area

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