Epsom is one of the most interesting electorates in the New Zealand election, for the fourth election in a row. Epsom is a wealthy, conservative electorate in the inner east of Auckland.
Since 2005, the ACT party has relied on winning the seat of Epsom to qualify for seats in the Parliament. In 2011, ACT’s John Banks won the seat, but his party polled so poorly across the country that he was not joined by any list MPs. Banks was forced to resign from the seat earlier this year after being convicted of filing a false electoral return during his unsuccessful 2010 campaign for Mayor of Auckland.
In 2011, a majority of National party voters cast a tactical vote for ACT candidate John Banks, while a majority of Green voters (and a large number of Labour voters) cast a tactical vote for National candidate Paul Goldsmith in an attempt to block ACT from winning a seat in Parliament.
In 2014, the ACT party is running David Seymour in Epsom. National list MP Paul Goldsmith is running Epsom, but is not actively campaigning to win the electorate. The ACT party is polling extremely poorly nationally, and it is yet to be seen whether National voters will be willing to again vote for ACT despite the poor national polling and the recent experience of John Banks’ conviction and resignation, and it is also yet to be seen whether centre-left voters will be willing to hold their nose and vote National in sufficient numbers to knock ACT out of Parliament.
