| Electorate | Margin | Electorate | Margin |
| Bay of Plenty | NAT 49.69% vs LAB | Rangitīkei | NAT 29.55% vs LAB |
| Coromandel | NAT 37.86% vs LAB | Rotorua | NAT 29.06% vs LAB |
| East Coast | NAT 16.65% vs LAB | Taranaki-King Country | NAT 50.82% vs LAB |
| Hamilton East | NAT 24.37% vs LAB | Taupō | NAT 42.92% vs LAB |
| Hamilton West | NAT 13.97% vs LAB | Tauranga | NAT 48.56% vs LAB |
| Napier | NAT 11.81% vs LAB | Tukituki | NAT 29.12% vs LAB |
| New Plymouth | NAT 14.44% vs LAB | Waikato | NAT 47.23% vs LAB |
| Ōtaki | NAT 14.02% vs LAB | Wairarapa | NAT 21.01% vs LAB |
| Palmerston North | LAB 10.2% vs NAT | Whanganui | NAT 16.93% vs LAB |
Local electorates
This post covers those parts of the North Island south of Auckland and North of Wellington. There are eighteen electorates in this area. Four of these electorates are relatively small urban electorates: Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Palmerston North and Tauranga.
Seventeen of these seats are held by the National Party. The only exception is Palmerston North, held by the Labour Party by a 10.2% margin. The National Party has suggested they are hoping to win this seat, but the seat is not one of the most marginal Labour seats.
A number of other seats were held by the Labour Party until 2008: Hamilton West, New Plymouth, Ōtaki, Rotorua and Taupō.
The seats of East Coast, Hamilton East, Napier, Tukituki, Wairarapa and Whanganui were held by the Labour Party up until the 2005 election.
Two other seats were held by minor parties in the past fifteen years. Tauranga was held by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters from 1984 until 2008. Coromandel was held by Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons from 1999 to 2002. Both of these seats are now safe National seats.
The remaining seats of Bay of Plenty, Rangitīkei, Taranaki-King Country and Waikato are all extremely safe National seats.
None of the seats in this region are ultra-marginal, but quite a few seats are held by margins that could be small enough to fall if the Labour Party was in an election-winning position. These seats include East Coast, Napier, New Plymouth, Ōtaki and Whanganui.
Redistribution
Most electorates in this region underwent subtle changes. The southern boundary of this area (on the border of the Wellington region) underwent no changes, and the electorates of Palmerston North, Taupō, Tukituki and Wairarapa all stayed exactly the same.
Assessment
North Island is a strong area for the National Party and relatively weak for Labour and the Greens. The National Party polled 5-9% above the nationwide result, while Labour polled 4-6% below the nationwide average.
The Green Party polled below their nationwide result, while New Zealand First and the Conservative Party outpolled their nationwide result.
2011 election results
| Electorate Votes | Party Votes | |||||||
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| National | 331,786 | 56.60 | +0.08 | 56.52 | 313,761 | 52.17 | +1.69 | 52.05 |
| Labour | 174,656 | 29.79 | -2.57 | 29.69 | 138,107 | 22.96 | -7.12 | 22.86 |
| Green | 33,685 | 5.75 | +1.62 | 5.75 | 56,496 | 9.39 | +3.79 | 9.40 |
| New Zealand First | 21,118 | 3.60 | +0.08 | 3.60 | 50,624 | 8.42 | +3.07 | 8.40 |
| Conservative | 15,164 | 2.59 | +2.59 | 2.59 | 21,022 | 3.50 | +3.5 | 3.49 |
| ACT New Zealand | 2,539 | 0.43 | -0.80 | 0.44 | 6,953 | 1.16 | -2.53 | 1.15 |
| United Future | 1,746 | 0.30 | -0.22 | 0.46 | 4,252 | 0.71 | -0.21 | 0.87 |
| Māori | 123 | 0.02 | +0.02 | 0.03 | 4,012 | 0.67 | -0.24 | 0.75 |
| Legalise Cannabis | 1,498 | 0.26 | +0.26 | 0.25 | 3,088 | 0.51 | +0.14 | 0.52 |
| Mana | 1,569 | 0.27 | +0.27 | 0.27 | 1,964 | 0.33 | +0.33 | 0.32 |
| Libertarianz | 652 | 0.11 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 465 | 0.08 | +0.02 | 0.08 |
| Democrats | 494 | 0.08 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 390 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.07 |
| Alliance | 48 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 255 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.04 |
| Others | 1,153 | 0.20 | -1.24 | 0.21 | ||||
