Check it out – NZ 2014 election guide

By
Ben Raue
-
4

New Zealand goes to the polls on 20 September for their general election.

The National-led centre-right government will be running for a third term at the election.

For the first time, I am putting together a seat-by-seat guide to the New Zealand election, in a similar format to my guides to the last two Australian federal elections, and a number of Australian state elections.

So far I have prepared profiles of fifteen out of seventy-one electorates, and those profiles can now be read online. You can find links to all of the seats completed so far, either by clicking through to the alphabetical list of seats, or a list of seats sorted by electoral vote margin (a pendulum).

You can also download a spreadsheet of all the key vote figures.

These fifteen electorates include:

Please come back and check periodically, as I will be posting profiles of the remaining 56 electorates throughout July and August. I will be posting links to the most recently-posted profiles on the right-hand side of the website.

The profile will also include a series of articles explaining New Zealand politics, the electoral system, recent political history, frequently asked questions and the redistribution, but I won’t be posting those until the electorates have been finished.

In addition, I have produced an update to my analysis of the New Zealand redistribution. In November, I conducted a full analysis of the draft electoral boundaries, including my estimate of the electorate and party vote for each party in each new electorate. All margins in the pendulum reflect the new electoral boundaries.

You can download the map in Google Earth format here, and you can browse the map below to see the electorate vote for each party on the new boundaries.

After the fold, I’ve posted some more explanation of the changes, and a table showing the pre-redistribution and post-redistribution margin for each electorate for both the party vote and the electorate vote.

The last redistribution, prior to the 2008 election, created 70 electorate seats. 47 of these seats were North Island general electorates, 16 were South Island general electorates, and the other seven were Māori electorates.

Since the last redistribution, the population has grown most strongly in the North Island, so the North Island was granted a 48th electorate.

Changes were relatively mild in the South Island, apart from some shifts in the seats in the Christchurch area due to population changes after the 2010/11 earthquakes.

The draft boundaries made no changes at all to Māori electorates. The final boundaries made a very small change, shifting a small area from Ikaroa-Rāwhiti to Waiariki. I have assumed no changes to the vote numbers in the seven Māori electorates.

In the North Island, one electorate was abolished, and two new electorates were created, all on the western fringe of Auckland.

The National seat of Waitakere, covering urban fringe and rural areas west of Auckland, was abolished. The seat of Upper Harbour was created as a very safe National seat covering the northwestern urban fringe in Auckland. The seat of Kelston was created as a very safe Labour seat covering western parts of Auckland.

In addition, the marginal Labour seat of Port Hills, in southern Christchurch, has been redrawn into a marginal National seat.

Overall, the National Party increased its number of electorate seats from 42 to 43, and the Labour Party maintained its numbers at 22, with another six seats held by small parties.

Electorates list

Electorate Old candidate vote New candidate vote Old party vote New party vote
Auckland Central NAT 2.16% vs LAB NAT 10.60% vs LAB NAT 17.12% vs LAB NAT 21.89% vs LAB
Bay of Plenty NAT 50.55% vs LAB NAT 49.69% vs LAB NAT 43.92% vs LAB NAT 43.06% vs LAB
Botany NAT 38.68% vs LAB NAT 37.81% vs LAB NAT 36.64% vs LAB NAT 35.82% vs LAB
Christchurch Central NAT 0.17% vs LAB NAT 1.33% vs LAB NAT 15.22% vs LAB NAT 18.92% vs LAB
Christchurch East LAB 19.04% vs NAT LAB 18.82% vs NAT NAT 14.44% vs LAB NAT 11.63% vs LAB
Clutha-Southland NAT 52.06% vs LAB NAT 52.06% vs LAB NAT 46.68% vs LAB NAT 46.68% vs LAB
Coromandel NAT 37.76% vs LAB NAT 37.86% vs LAB NAT 34.09% vs LAB NAT 34.32% vs LAB
Dunedin North LAB 11.90% vs NAT LAB 9.12% vs NAT LAB 1.40% vs NAT NAT 0.59% vs LAB
Dunedin South LAB 12.12% vs NAT LAB 12.12% vs NAT NAT 5.21% vs LAB NAT 5.21% vs LAB
East Coast NAT 16.46% vs LAB NAT 16.65% vs LAB NAT 25.90% vs LAB NAT 25.15% vs LAB
East Coast Bays NAT 45.10% vs LAB NAT 52.49% vs LAB NAT 45.65% vs LAB NAT 51.65% vs LAB
Epsom ACT 6.30% vs NAT ACT 6.68% vs NAT NAT 48.98% vs LAB NAT 49.59% vs LAB
Hamilton East NAT 25.54% vs LAB NAT 24.37% vs LAB NAT 26.67% vs LAB NAT 25.50% vs LAB
Hamilton West NAT 14.19% vs LAB NAT 13.97% vs LAB NAT 18.59% vs LAB NAT 18.41% vs LAB
Hauraki-Waikato LAB 35.53% vs MANA LAB 35.53% vs MANA LAB 33.05% vs MAORI LAB 33.05% vs MAORI
Helensville NAT 60.24% vs LAB NAT 45.97% vs LAB NAT 51.44% vs LAB NAT 46.20% vs LAB
Hunua NAT 48.83% vs LAB NAT 50.86% vs LAB NAT 46.47% vs LAB NAT 48.17% vs LAB
Hutt South LAB 15.05% vs NAT LAB 9.91% vs NAT NAT 5.34% vs LAB NAT 14.14% vs LAB
Ikaroa-Rawhiti LAB 37.61% vs MAORI LAB 37.61% vs MAORI LAB 34.60% vs MAORI LAB 34.60% vs MAORI
Ilam NAT 40.07% vs LAB NAT 40.07% vs LAB NAT 39.16% vs LAB NAT 39.16% vs LAB
Invercargill NAT 19.79% vs LAB NAT 19.79% vs LAB NAT 21.15% vs LAB NAT 21.15% vs LAB
Kaikōura NAT 34.54% vs LAB NAT 34.54% vs LAB NAT 35.55% vs LAB NAT 35.55% vs LAB
Kelston LAB 25.31% vs NAT LAB 13.60% vs NAT
Mana LAB 6.64% vs NAT LAB 6.64% vs NAT NAT 2.19% vs LAB NAT 2.19% vs LAB
Māngere LAB 63.30% vs NAT LAB 63.30% vs NAT LAB 57.46% vs NAT LAB 57.46% vs NAT
Manukau East LAB 62.96% vs NAT LAB 63.03% vs NAT LAB 47.07% vs NAT LAB 46.86% vs NAT
Manurewa LAB 36.41% vs NAT LAB 36.41% vs NAT LAB 31.30% vs NAT LAB 31.30% vs NAT
Maungakiekie NAT 9.31% vs LAB NAT 5.74% vs LAB NAT 6.74% vs LAB NAT 3.40% vs LAB
Mt Albert LAB 31.69% vs NAT LAB 24.10% vs NAT LAB 0.41% vs NAT NAT 5.70% vs LAB
Mt Roskill LAB 23.21% vs NAT LAB 10.59% vs NAT LAB 4.07% vs NAT NAT 6.71% vs LAB
Napier NAT 11.12% vs LAB NAT 11.81% vs LAB NAT 19.52% vs LAB NAT 20.23% vs LAB
Nelson NAT 20.51% vs LAB NAT 20.51% vs LAB NAT 18.08% vs LAB NAT 18.08% vs LAB
New Lynn LAB 15.92% vs NAT LAB 22.58% vs NAT NAT 2.22% vs LAB LAB 4.60% vs NAT
New Plymouth NAT 12.90% vs LAB NAT 14.44% vs LAB NAT 27.44% vs LAB NAT 28.15% vs LAB
North Shore NAT 41.87% vs LAB NAT 41.87% vs LAB NAT 45.93% vs LAB NAT 45.93% vs LAB
Northcote NAT 29.00% vs LAB NAT 29.00% vs LAB NAT 27.24% vs LAB NAT 27.24% vs LAB
Northland NAT 35.95% vs LAB NAT 35.95% vs LAB NAT 32.55% vs LAB NAT 32.55% vs LAB
Ōhariu UNF 3.74% vs LAB UNF 0.29% vs LAB NAT 23.07% vs LAB NAT 21.89% vs LAB
Ōtaki NAT 14.09% vs LAB NAT 14.02% vs LAB NAT 17.20% vs LAB NAT 17.44% vs LAB
Pakuranga NAT 44.06% vs LAB NAT 44.06% vs LAB NAT 44.19% vs LAB NAT 44.19% vs LAB
Palmerston North LAB 10.20% vs NAT LAB 10.20% vs NAT NAT 10.24% vs LAB NAT 10.24% vs LAB
Papakura NAT 32.57% vs LAB NAT 31.59% vs LAB NAT 25.42% vs LAB NAT 24.55% vs LAB
Port Hills LAB 9.53% vs NAT NAT 2.50% vs LAB NAT 16.02% vs LAB NAT 22.65% vs LAB
Rangitata NAT 18.62% vs LAB NAT 17.09% vs LAB NAT 26.70% vs LAB NAT 25.78% vs LAB
Rangitīkei NAT 30.21% vs LAB NAT 29.55% vs LAB NAT 32.75% vs LAB NAT 31.79% vs LAB
Rimutaka LAB 9.87% vs NAT LAB 15.07% vs NAT NAT 11.62% vs LAB NAT 5.74% vs LAB
Rodney NAT 32.31% vs CON NAT 31.01% vs CON NAT 48.72% vs LAB NAT 47.08% vs LAB
Rongotai LAB 25.14% vs NAT LAB 25.14% vs NAT LAB 1.19% vs NAT LAB 1.19% vs NAT
Rotorua NAT 24.04% vs LAB NAT 29.06% vs LAB NAT 29.32% vs LAB NAT 32.44% vs LAB
Selwyn NAT 53.88% vs LAB NAT 55.77% vs LAB NAT 46.52% vs LAB NAT 47.67% vs LAB
Tāmaki NAT 48.46% vs LAB NAT 50.33% vs LAB NAT 46.84% vs LAB NAT 48.70% vs LAB
Tamaki Makaurau MAORI 5.31% vs LAB MAORI 5.31% vs LAB LAB 27.05% vs MAORI LAB 27.05% vs MAORI
Taranaki-King Country NAT 50.42% vs LAB NAT 50.82% vs LAB NAT 44.49% vs LAB NAT 45.36% vs LAB
Taupō NAT 42.92% vs LAB NAT 42.92% vs LAB NAT 36.03% vs LAB NAT 36.03% vs LAB
Tauranga NAT 48.24% vs LAB NAT 48.56% vs LAB NAT 39.22% vs LAB NAT 39.57% vs NZF
Te Atatū LAB 18.38% vs NAT LAB 8.27% vs NAT NAT 2.28% vs LAB NAT 5.28% vs LAB
Te Tai Hauauru MAORI 18.45% vs LAB MAORI 18.45% vs LAB LAB 20.98% vs MAORI LAB 20.98% vs MAORI
Te Tai Tokerau MANA 6.21% vs LAB MANA 6.21% vs LAB LAB 10.17% vs MANA LAB 10.17% vs MANA
Te Tai Tonga LAB 8.83% vs MAORI LAB 8.83% vs MAORI LAB 22.70% vs GRN LAB 22.70% vs GRN
Tukituki NAT 29.12% vs LAB NAT 29.12% vs LAB NAT 28.46% vs LAB NAT 28.46% vs LAB
Upper Harbour NAT 30.01% vs LAB NAT 30.69% vs LAB
Waiariki MAORI 10.59% vs MANA MAORI 10.59% vs MANA LAB 13.84% vs MAORI LAB 13.84% vs MAORI
Waikato NAT 46.50% vs LAB NAT 47.23% vs LAB NAT 43.54% vs LAB NAT 44.08% vs LAB
Waimakariri NAT 1.81% vs LAB NAT 3.02% vs LAB NAT 33.48% vs LAB NAT 35.00% vs LAB
Wairarapa NAT 21.01% vs LAB NAT 21.01% vs LAB NAT 28.23% vs LAB NAT 28.23% vs LAB
Waitakere NAT 0.03% vs LAB NAT 3.07% vs LAB
Waitaki NAT 37.43% vs LAB NAT 37.34% vs LAB NAT 33.87% vs LAB NAT 33.79% vs LAB
Wellington Central LAB 16.64% vs NAT LAB 17.40% vs NAT NAT 10.73% vs GRN NAT 10.13% vs GRN
West Coast-Tasman LAB 7.66% vs NAT LAB 7.66% vs NAT NAT 18.55% vs LAB NAT 18.55% vs LAB
Whanganui NAT 16.18% vs LAB NAT 16.93% vs LAB NAT 20.15% vs LAB NAT 20.53% vs LAB
Whangarei NAT 36.74% vs LAB NAT 36.74% vs LAB NAT 30.33% vs LAB NAT 30.33% vs LAB
Wigram LAB 4.81% vs NAT LAB 4.46% vs NAT NAT 13.93% vs LAB NAT 13.07% vs LAB
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4 COMMENTS

  2. The number of South Island seats is fixed at 16, and the number of North Island and Maori seats is set by comparison to that – so if the North Island population grows faster, the number of seats will increase.

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