NZ electorate map finalised

By
Ben Raue
-
0

In the lead-up to the New Zealand election in September, the final map of electoral boundaries was released last Thursday. The changes are relatively minor in most seats, although a large number of electorates saw some change in comparison to the draft boundaries.

Back in October I posted an extensive analysis of the draft boundaries. I won’t repeat all of the same analysis, but I have updated the data to reflect the final version.

You can downloaded the following updated files:

And following the fold I have posted my estimated margins of the new electorates.

Electorates list

Electorate Old candidate vote New candidate vote Old party vote New party vote
Auckland Central NAT 2.16% vs LAB NAT 10.60% vs LAB NAT 17.12% vs LAB NAT 21.89% vs LAB
Bay of Plenty NAT 50.55% vs LAB NAT 49.69% vs LAB NAT 43.92% vs LAB NAT 43.06% vs LAB
Botany NAT 38.68% vs LAB NAT 37.81% vs LAB NAT 36.64% vs LAB NAT 35.82% vs LAB
Christchurch Central NAT 0.17% vs LAB NAT 1.33% vs LAB NAT 15.22% vs LAB NAT 18.92% vs LAB
Christchurch East LAB 19.04% vs NAT LAB 18.82% vs NAT NAT 14.44% vs LAB NAT 11.63% vs LAB
Clutha-Southland NAT 52.06% vs LAB NAT 52.06% vs LAB NAT 46.68% vs LAB NAT 46.68% vs LAB
Coromandel NAT 37.76% vs LAB NAT 37.86% vs LAB NAT 34.09% vs LAB NAT 34.32% vs LAB
Dunedin North LAB 11.90% vs NAT LAB 9.12% vs NAT LAB 1.40% vs NAT NAT 0.59% vs LAB
Dunedin South LAB 12.12% vs NAT LAB 12.12% vs NAT NAT 5.21% vs LAB NAT 5.21% vs LAB
East Coast NAT 16.46% vs LAB NAT 16.65% vs LAB NAT 25.90% vs LAB NAT 25.15% vs LAB
East Coast Bays NAT 45.10% vs LAB NAT 52.49% vs LAB NAT 45.65% vs LAB NAT 51.65% vs LAB
Epsom ACT 6.30% vs NAT ACT 6.68% vs NAT NAT 48.98% vs LAB NAT 49.59% vs LAB
Hamilton East NAT 25.54% vs LAB NAT 24.37% vs LAB NAT 26.67% vs LAB NAT 25.50% vs LAB
Hamilton West NAT 14.19% vs LAB NAT 13.97% vs LAB NAT 18.59% vs LAB NAT 18.41% vs LAB
Hauraki-Waikato LAB 35.53% vs MANA LAB 35.53% vs MANA LAB 33.05% vs MAORI LAB 33.05% vs MAORI
Helensville NAT 60.24% vs LAB NAT 45.97% vs LAB NAT 51.44% vs LAB NAT 46.20% vs LAB
Hunua NAT 48.83% vs LAB NAT 50.86% vs LAB NAT 46.47% vs LAB NAT 48.17% vs LAB
Hutt South LAB 15.05% vs NAT LAB 9.91% vs NAT NAT 5.34% vs LAB NAT 14.14% vs LAB
Ikaroa-Rawhiti LAB 37.61% vs MAORI LAB 37.61% vs MAORI LAB 34.60% vs MAORI LAB 34.60% vs MAORI
Ilam NAT 40.07% vs LAB NAT 40.07% vs LAB NAT 39.16% vs LAB NAT 39.16% vs LAB
Invercargill NAT 19.79% vs LAB NAT 19.79% vs LAB NAT 21.15% vs LAB NAT 21.15% vs LAB
Kaikōura NAT 34.54% vs LAB NAT 34.54% vs LAB NAT 35.55% vs LAB NAT 35.55% vs LAB
Kelston LAB 25.31% vs NAT LAB 13.60% vs NAT
Mana LAB 6.64% vs NAT LAB 6.64% vs NAT NAT 2.19% vs LAB NAT 2.19% vs LAB
Māngere LAB 63.30% vs NAT LAB 63.30% vs NAT LAB 57.46% vs NAT LAB 57.46% vs NAT
Manukau East LAB 62.96% vs NAT LAB 63.03% vs NAT LAB 47.07% vs NAT LAB 46.86% vs NAT
Manurewa LAB 36.41% vs NAT LAB 36.41% vs NAT LAB 31.30% vs NAT LAB 31.30% vs NAT
Maungakiekie NAT 9.31% vs LAB NAT 5.74% vs LAB NAT 6.74% vs LAB NAT 3.40% vs LAB
Mt Albert LAB 31.69% vs NAT LAB 24.10% vs NAT LAB 0.41% vs NAT NAT 5.70% vs LAB
Mt Roskill LAB 23.21% vs NAT LAB 10.59% vs NAT LAB 4.07% vs NAT NAT 6.71% vs LAB
Napier NAT 11.12% vs LAB NAT 11.81% vs LAB NAT 19.52% vs LAB NAT 20.23% vs LAB
Nelson NAT 20.51% vs LAB NAT 20.51% vs LAB NAT 18.08% vs LAB NAT 18.08% vs LAB
New Lynn LAB 15.92% vs NAT LAB 22.58% vs NAT NAT 2.22% vs LAB LAB 4.60% vs NAT
New Plymouth NAT 12.90% vs LAB NAT 14.44% vs LAB NAT 27.44% vs LAB NAT 28.15% vs LAB
North Shore NAT 41.87% vs LAB NAT 41.87% vs LAB NAT 45.93% vs LAB NAT 45.93% vs LAB
Northcote NAT 29.00% vs LAB NAT 29.00% vs LAB NAT 27.24% vs LAB NAT 27.24% vs LAB
Northland NAT 35.95% vs LAB NAT 35.95% vs LAB NAT 32.55% vs LAB NAT 32.55% vs LAB
Ōhariu UNF 3.74% vs LAB UNF 0.29% vs LAB NAT 23.07% vs LAB NAT 21.89% vs LAB
Ōtaki NAT 14.09% vs LAB NAT 14.02% vs LAB NAT 17.20% vs LAB NAT 17.44% vs LAB
Pakuranga NAT 44.06% vs LAB NAT 44.06% vs LAB NAT 44.19% vs LAB NAT 44.19% vs LAB
Palmerston North LAB 10.20% vs NAT LAB 10.20% vs NAT NAT 10.24% vs LAB NAT 10.24% vs LAB
Papakura NAT 32.57% vs LAB NAT 31.59% vs LAB NAT 25.42% vs LAB NAT 24.55% vs LAB
Port Hills LAB 9.53% vs NAT NAT 2.50% vs LAB NAT 16.02% vs LAB NAT 22.65% vs LAB
Rangitata NAT 18.62% vs LAB NAT 17.09% vs LAB NAT 26.70% vs LAB NAT 25.78% vs LAB
Rangitīkei NAT 30.21% vs LAB NAT 29.55% vs LAB NAT 32.75% vs LAB NAT 31.79% vs LAB
Rimutaka LAB 9.87% vs NAT LAB 15.07% vs NAT NAT 11.62% vs LAB NAT 5.74% vs LAB
Rodney NAT 32.31% vs CON NAT 31.01% vs CON NAT 48.72% vs LAB NAT 47.08% vs LAB
Rongotai LAB 25.14% vs NAT LAB 25.14% vs NAT LAB 1.19% vs NAT LAB 1.19% vs NAT
Rotorua NAT 24.04% vs LAB NAT 29.06% vs LAB NAT 29.32% vs LAB NAT 32.44% vs LAB
Selwyn NAT 53.88% vs LAB NAT 55.77% vs LAB NAT 46.52% vs LAB NAT 47.67% vs LAB
Tāmaki NAT 48.46% vs LAB NAT 50.33% vs LAB NAT 46.84% vs LAB NAT 48.70% vs LAB
Tamaki Makaurau MAORI 5.31% vs LAB MAORI 5.31% vs LAB LAB 27.05% vs MAORI LAB 27.05% vs MAORI
Taranaki-King Country NAT 50.42% vs LAB NAT 50.82% vs LAB NAT 44.49% vs LAB NAT 45.36% vs LAB
Taupō NAT 42.92% vs LAB NAT 42.92% vs LAB NAT 36.03% vs LAB NAT 36.03% vs LAB
Tauranga NAT 48.24% vs LAB NAT 48.56% vs LAB NAT 39.22% vs LAB NAT 39.57% vs NZF
Te Atatū LAB 18.38% vs NAT LAB 8.27% vs NAT NAT 2.28% vs LAB NAT 5.28% vs LAB
Te Tai Hauauru MAORI 18.45% vs LAB MAORI 18.45% vs LAB LAB 20.98% vs MAORI LAB 20.98% vs MAORI
Te Tai Tokerau MANA 6.21% vs LAB MANA 6.21% vs LAB LAB 10.17% vs MANA LAB 10.17% vs MANA
Te Tai Tonga LAB 8.83% vs MAORI LAB 8.83% vs MAORI LAB 22.70% vs GRN LAB 22.70% vs GRN
Tukituki NAT 29.12% vs LAB NAT 29.12% vs LAB NAT 28.46% vs LAB NAT 28.46% vs LAB
Upper Harbour NAT 30.01% vs LAB NAT 30.69% vs LAB
Waiariki MAORI 10.59% vs MANA MAORI 10.59% vs MANA LAB 13.84% vs MAORI LAB 13.84% vs MAORI
Waikato NAT 46.50% vs LAB NAT 47.23% vs LAB NAT 43.54% vs LAB NAT 44.08% vs LAB
Waimakariri NAT 1.81% vs LAB NAT 3.02% vs LAB NAT 33.48% vs LAB NAT 35.00% vs LAB
Wairarapa NAT 21.01% vs LAB NAT 21.01% vs LAB NAT 28.23% vs LAB NAT 28.23% vs LAB
Waitakere NAT 0.03% vs LAB NAT 3.07% vs LAB
Waitaki NAT 37.43% vs LAB NAT 37.34% vs LAB NAT 33.87% vs LAB NAT 33.79% vs LAB
Wellington Central LAB 16.64% vs NAT LAB 17.40% vs NAT NAT 10.73% vs GRN NAT 10.13% vs GRN
West Coast-Tasman LAB 7.66% vs NAT LAB 7.66% vs NAT NAT 18.55% vs LAB NAT 18.55% vs LAB
Whanganui NAT 16.18% vs LAB NAT 16.93% vs LAB NAT 20.15% vs LAB NAT 20.53% vs LAB
Whangarei NAT 36.74% vs LAB NAT 36.74% vs LAB NAT 30.33% vs LAB NAT 30.33% vs LAB
Wigram LAB 4.81% vs NAT LAB 4.46% vs NAT NAT 13.93% vs LAB NAT 13.07% vs LAB
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