Polls close in New Zealand at 7pm NZDT (5pm AEDT). I’m not sure how long the count will take, but I should be liveblogging from 5:15pm AEDT. I thought I’d run through what are the key points to follow.
Labour-National marginal seats – DON’T bother yourself watching these (unless you’ve really got nothing better to do). While force of Australian habit would suggest that you keep an eye on how these fall, it really doesn’t make a difference. In addition to not making a difference in the overall seat count, the defeat of any key figures on either side in an electorate seat will not be significant, as most senior figures are also placed high on their party’s list, meaning they will be returned if they lose their electorate seat.
Hauraki-Waikato, Ikaria-Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga – polls suggest that the four sitting Maori Party MPs are safe in their electorates. On the other hand, these three seats are held by Labour, and polls suggest all three will be close. Barring an exceptionally high party vote, the number of Maori seats won by the Maori Party will determine their total numbers in Parliament, and the size of the overhang. A large overhang will likely make it more difficult for National and ACT to win a majority of seats.
Epsom, Ohariu and Wigram – these three seats are respectively held by the leaders of ACT, United Future and Progressive. None of these are expected to be close, but a defeat for one of these leaders would see that party knocked out of Parliament.
Tauranga – this seat, formerly held by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, will likely be the key to his party’s survival. Unless they perform well in the party vote, this is NZF’s only lifeline. Polls suggest the Nationals are well in front.
The party bloc votes – It’s worth adding up the votes for the “left bloc” of Labour, Progressive and Greens on one side and National, ACT and United Future on the other to get an idea of their relative performance.
New Zealand First’s party vote – If New Zealand First manages somehow to poll over 5%, they will return to Parliament and will dramatically alter the make-up of any “left bloc”, with tensions between NZF and the Greens almost as bad as those between NZF and National. They may also return to a kingmaker position, as, while National has rejected them, Peters insists his party is undecided and may well force John Key to change his mind if Peters is in the key position.
Maori Party’s party vote – If the Maori Party vote performs strongly, they may well gain list seats in addition to Maori seats. With their current four seats, a vote above 3% could see them win list seats. If they win all seven, then they would need close to 6% to win an eighth seat.
Prediction:
Electorates: National will win 37 electorates, Labour 24 (including Ikaroa-Rāwhiti), Maori Party six, and one each for ACT, UF and Progressive.
Party vote:
- National – 45.5%
- Labour – 34.2%
- Greens – 8.5%
- Maori – 4.0%
- NZ First – 3.5%
- ACT – 3.0%
- United Future – 0.8%
- Progressive – 0.5%
Overall seat count:
- National – 56
- Labour – 42
- Greens – 11
- Maori – 6
- ACT – 4
- UF – 1
- Progressive – 1
This would give the right bloc 61 seats and the left bloc 54. The Maori Party would become irrelevant, with NAT-ACT-UF holding a one-seat majority, although they would likely look to make some arrangement with the Maori Party to strengthen their position.
So what’s your prediction?
Update: If you want to make your own prediction, there is a calculator on the NZ elections website that allows you to input numbers of electorate seats and %s of the party vote and it spits out the numbers of total seats.
