One of the smallest Australian elections will be coming up this Saturday, April 12, in the Northern Territory electorate of Blain.
Blain covers the southern suburbs of Palmerston, the major town that lays outside of Darwin. The seat was held since the 1999 by-election by Terry Mills. Mills had served as Country Liberal (CLP) leader from 2003 to 2005, and then again from 2008 until 2012, when he led the CLP back into government.
Mills lost the Chief Minister’s position to Adam Giles in March 2013, and in February 2014 he resigned from the Assembly.
In the last few weeks, the Northern Territory CLP government has suffered a crisis amongst its parliamentary ranks, one that could see the government lose its majority if it loses the Blain by-election.
Last week, three members of the CLP caucus, all indigenous members representing outback electorates, resigned from the CLP as the conclusion of a long-festering internal party conflict. At the 2012 election, a shock result saw Labor’s previously-safe outback seats almost entirely wiped out, while the ALP held on in the Darwin area.
Following the three resignations, the CLP only holds twelve seats in the 25-member Assembly. A win in Blain will protect the government’s majority, whereas a loss will force the CLP to seek an arrangement with independent Gerry Wood to stay in power.
Due to the small size of the electorate, I didn’t produce a full-sized guide to the electorate. At the 2012 election, just under 4000 formal votes were cast in Blain, and Mills won 63.2% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Antony Green recently outlined the history of swings in recent by-elections. While it is possible that Blain could fall to the ALP, it would require a substantial swing that is not unheard of, but is not that common.
Results by polling place
| Polling place | CLP 2PP % | ALP 2PP % | Formal | % of votes |
| Moulden Park | 58.20 | 41.80 | 823 | 20.58 |
| Rosebery | 63.75 | 36.25 | 720 | 18.00 |
| Woodroffe | 64.64 | 35.36 | 1,315 | 32.88 |
| Other votes | 64.94 | 35.06 | 1,141 | 28.53 |
I would imagine that most Territorians would split their blame about the recent break-up of the parliamentary CLP between the ‘rebel’ three and the remainding CLP members.
It’s possible that the general feeling that this Government has been a bit disfunctional, along with the recent walk out will make a near-perfect storm for a big swing.
Still, I tend to think that the margin here doesn’t reflect quite how Liberal-leaning Palmerston is.
I think the result will be within five points either way. For the sake of taking a punt, I’ll say Labor win 51-49.
Here’ a poll from the NT News:
http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/exclusive-poll-shows-clp-slightly-ahead-of-labor-5149-on-twoparty-preferred-basis-in-blain/story-fnk0b1zt-1226880300198
CLP leading Labor 51-49. Primaries: CLP 40.8%, ALP 39.2%, Ind (Cranitch) 12.5% (presumably the Greens get most of the other 7.5%, it’s either them or the CEC), so that’s more than a 20% drop on primary votes for the CLP. Nasty.
Game on.
I find it hard to believe that of the 20% voting either for the AEU candidate or the Greens, that fully half will give their preferences to the CLP. Doesn’t make sense. Were they asked who they’ll preference or is it based on past preferences (which wouldn’t make sense given the new independent)?
If Cranitch and the Greens preference Labor on their HTV cards, Labor will win on these figures.
I have heard that the independent is recommending preferencing CLP ahead of ALP.
In the usual run of things you wouldn’t expect independents to exercise much control over preferences, but I imagine you wouldn’t need many volunteers handing out HTVs to cover an electorate of just 5000.
You’re quite right – http://video.au.msn.com/watch/video/independent-preferences-clp-before-labor/xvxsrh8?cpkey=4fbfad3b-732d-4d02-ac99-c0ca07523166%257c%257c%257c%257c
I’m surprised that an AEU-endorsed candidate, running against the CLP Governments stance on teacher’s EBA would then preference the CLP, but there you go. It will be interesting to see how his preferences actually flow.
For what it’s worth, the bookies have the two majors at $1.83 and the Indi at a distant $6.
My thoughts: There will be a massive swing, I can see the result being within no more of 2% either way. I think the CLP will narrowly hold this, although I wouldn’t rule out a shock Labor win.
Also, should Labor win Blain, the government will obviously try and get the support of independent member for Nelson, Gerry Wood. If they can’t, well, a new election could very well be on the cards.
Comments are closed.