Following on from recent speculation about a possible snap election to be called in Tasmania, the Tally Room guide to the next Tasmanian state election is now up on the website.
Tasmania last went to the polls in March 2010, and the next election was expected to be held this March, and must be held by June. Recent speculation suggests that Labor Premier Lara Giddings could call the election as early as this week.
The guide features a summary of the electoral system and political circumstances, and profiles of all five electorates. Each electorate will elect five members of Parliament.
At the last election, all five electorates produced the same result: two Labor, two Liberal and one Green. This resulted in the Labor government losing its majority after three terms in government, and forming an alliance with the Tasmanian Greens which saw Greens take on ministerial roles for the first time in Australian history.
Since that last election, the Liberal Party has shot ahead in the polls and is expected to win the next election.
Throughout this week I will be profiling one of the five electorates each day. I’ll start profiling electorates for the March election in South Australia from next week, but if you’re interested you can read those profiles already written by clicking through to the South Australian guide or clicking on the links on the right-hand sidebar.
If you want to comment on the general campaign or the possible timing of the election, please use this thread. For specific discussion on a particular electorate or candidate, please use that profile’s comments thread.
Link to my guide to the election:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html
Looks like writs not issued til Feb 19 which would give PUP time to be registered assuming their registration attempt was actually valid.
From the other thread:
“Kevin, really? So it isn’t really the Nats running? Are the candidates Nat-ish?”
I really have little idea at this stage what they are but the federal party has disowned the whole thing and asked the TEC to deregister them, and declared that they are inconsistent with the federal party constitution. The involvement of Allison Ritchie (former ALP MLC) as campaign director is quite odd.
Same day as the SA poll. NOT AGAIN!!!
Whilst there is a small chance the the Libs will not gain a majority, they will clearly have the lion’s share of the seats. In this scenario the Greens would appear king maker unless (also unlikely) the PUP share the balance of power. Both majors have foresworn governing in coalition with the greens. Minority govern would be the only alternative I think. I would not have thought the the Governor would grant a fresh election with Tasmania’s four year terms unless the Greens did not agree to supply for a set period of time with the exception of gross malfeasance.
I’ll put up my prediction in summary here. I predict the Liberals to win 13 seats and a majority, Labor to win 8 seats, and the Greens 4 seats – the Liberals will gain seats in Bass and Braddon and Lyons, with Bass and Lyons both seeing Labor lose a seat to the Liberals, while the Greens will lose in Braddon. I predict Denison and Franklin to be status quo.
Interesting – a week out Kevin Bonham has Libs 14, ALP 6, Greens 4, PUP 1 though the last eat in several electorates is far from locked in. Looks like the ALP divorce from the Greens has helped the Greens recover slightly but done no good for the ALP
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