Monday counting update

After very little to no counting taking place on Sunday, counts progressed yesterday in a number of key seats. This is a short update on those races.

In the northern Victorian seat of Indi, a count was finally conducted between the Liberal Party’s Sophie Mirabella and independent challenger Cathy McGowan. On this two-candidate count, McGowan leads with 51.83% of the vote. The count doesn’t include prepoll, postal, absentee and other declaration votes, and it’s a bit early to call the seat for McGowan.

A two-candidate preferred count was also conducted in Fairfax between Clive Palmer and LNP candidate Ted O’Brien. This count also produced a 51.83% of the vote. Presumably Palmer’s large budget allowed him to conduct a strong prepoll and postal campaign, and should hold up throughout the count.

In the nearby seat of Fisher, the Palmer United candidate was considered an outside contender to win the seat. An indicative two-candidate count shows Mal Brough with over 55% of the vote when matched up with the PUP’s Bill Schoch in thirteen booths. We’ll have to wait until later today to see whether Schoch can make that up in the large number of booths not counted, but Brough is still the favourite.

McEwen was the extremely close seat at the 2007 election, when the Liberal Party’s Fran Bailey won by only 27 votes. The 2010 election and the recent redistribution built up a margin of over 9%, but this election has wiped that out. On election night, the ALP’s Rob Mitchell led by 72 votes. The addition of almost 2000 postal votes today gave a six-vote advantage to the Liberal Party’s Donna Petrovich, leaving Mitchell with a 66-vote margin.

The southern Sydney seat of Barton has also been reduced to a dead heat, after a swing of 6.8% away from the ALP. The ALP is leading by only 68 votes, and no additional votes have been added today.

The ALP’s only Queensland seat outside of Brisbane is Capricornia, where the 3.7% margin was largely wiped out. The ALP’s Peter Freeleagus led by 141 votes after the counting of ordinary votes, and no additional votes have been added.

The southern NSW bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro is also extremely close, with the Liberal Party’s Peter Hendy holding the seat by 569 votes, or 0.37%, based entirely on ordinary votes.

The Liberal candidate Craig Laundy leads by 634 votes in Reid, with no special votes counted.

In the Brisbane seat of Petrie, the LNP’s Luke Howarth led by 786 ordinary votes over sitting Labor MP Yvette D’Ath. The gap was narrowed by 19 votes after a small batch of absentee votes were added.

In Craig Thomson’s seat of Dobell, Liberal candidate Karen McNamara leads by 981 votes ahead of the ALP’s Emma McBride, with no special votes counted. It seems unlikely that McBride can catch up, but a bit early to call this seat.

Labor MP Julie Owens is leading by 963 votes with no special votes counted in Parramatta. While she is likely to win, it’s a bit early to call.

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