Election day has arrived. Today I’ll be spending the day at the polling booth at Sydney Town Hall, one of the biggest booths in the country.
I probably won’t be doing much on the blog today, but please use this thread to discuss the election today.
I’ll be covering the results from 6:30pm.
May I ask when the polls formally close (as I have been led to believe the exit poll will be published at 0900 BST)?
Time to vote for change.
Vote 1 Palmer United Party!
Polling places close at 6pm local time. The first polling place to close will be Norfolk Island (UTC+11:30) and the last Christmas Island (UTC+07:00) but the majority are in the UTC+10:00 timezone.
KME
Which electorate are Norfolk Is in??.
winediamond: Canberra, although I believe Norfolk Island voters are allowed to register for another mainland electorate if they can demonstrate a sufficient level of connection with it.
Hi Politicos’,
Just want to tell you about this Youtube Channel I initiated.
Is a good voter resource. Video Profiles of *all candidates by Electoral Division or Seat.
Playlists of each candidate.
Cheers
C
*that submitted
KME
Thanks for that
Morgan exit poll at 12noon 2pp 52-58 to the Coalition
with 30% pre polls exit polls are only from a limited sample of the population. We don’t know whether there is a significant difference between people who prepoll and those who vote today
1pm morgan update 2pp 51.5-48.5 to the coalition.
2pm 52-48 Coaltition
Still worry that the exit polls have a pro-ALP effect, but that might be less relevant in this election.
Went up to my local booth, Willoughby Oval.Voted PUP no one there handing out.
However there were THREE women handing out Get Up!! “independent assessment” policy pamphlets . I was enraged. I told them they were not a party, & were certainly not “independent”. If they were subject to commercial law their directors would be charged for FALSE, MISLEADING, DECEPTIVE CONDUCT, & behavior. That their presence was offensive unacceptable, & intolerable. That they would be wise to consider the consequence of a repeat showing. In the end warning them “DON’T LET ME SEE YOU HERE AGAIN”
I am heartily sick of seeing protected organisations , agencies, quangos, unions spreading lies, & propaganda with impunity.
Ended up voting out at the Cornubia (Chisholm Catholic College) – normally vote in Mt Warren Park, but happened to have to be in Cornubia for something, so I went there instead.
When I got there, Bert van Manen was coming out of the building with the booths in it, and there was an interview with Channels 7 and 10. At the place itself, there was a lot of van Manen stuff there, including HEAPS of those long banners (looks a lot like the Indi polling places were described recently). In terms of people handing out HTV cards, there were about 5 Labor and 5 LNP, plus 3 PUP, one KAP, and two Greens. No sign of anything from the other five candidates, from what I could see.
Had a look at the Labor HTV for Forde, (from memory) it went Labor, KAP, Greens, PUP, Independent (Joshua Sloss), Australian Voice, FF, LNP, Rise Up Australia, and CEC. Was not following any HTV, did my own preferences (House and Senate – voted below the line).
Figured it was worth reporting in that info.
winediamond, the appropriate response to political speech you don’t agree with is to set up shop next to them and tell people why you reckon they’re wrong, not trying to gag them.
Minor correction – I said Rise Up Australia was ahead of CEC on the Labor HTV. I’m fairly certain now that I have that backwards. I just viewed my “belowtheline.org.au”-generated ballot numbering, and I had CEC ahead of RUA, and when I looked at the Labor HTV, I was comparing it to my choices. As you can understand, I put those two at the bottom separately from any other decision, but which was lower was an arbitrary choice.
Interesting feeling at the booths this morning (Syd). Very different to past elections. The main difference was that normally most voters take all HTV cards. This time there was alot more people just taking the Lib HTV and ignoring all the others. Also there wasn’t as much heckling as in the past. Big swing in NSW is on.
Spoken with people in Vic (Eastern suburds Melb) and Qld (Western suburbs Bris and Sunshine Coast) from both major parties. A lot of people out early. A swing is on. Coalition will be closer to 100 than 90…..
Morgieb – pro labor exit polls? Do you mean the shy conservative voter says labor even though they have voted lib?
Pollster – I think what Morgieb might be saying is that the exit polls being released may influence the vote in Labor’s favour, although I’m not convinced. That, or that because it’s an SMS exit poll, it’s going to bias in favour of certain types of people. I’m not 100% sure.
Just think Morgan have a pro-ALP effect.
I suppose SMS makes it different, but that also skews young.
Morgieb – while I understand the comment, it’s worth also noting that most of the undecideds were young, so it might be a little more representative on the whole, at least in terms of any trends relative to Morgan’s own opinion polling.
I’m changing to 94 guys based on internal polling from yesterday. QLD looks like a bloodbath. So does NSW.
I’m changing to 94 guys based on internal polling from yesterday. QLD looks like a bloodbath. So does NSW. Been at polling booths so couldn’t get to this until now.
Antony currently has no seats changing hands in Queensland…and the ALP hanging on in Greenway.
No seats lost in QLD, not many lost in Victoria. Most of the damage was in NSW and Tasmania.
Senate is going to be a complete clusterf- though.
“Hanging on” is an understatement, kme. Labor had a decent swing to them in Greenway – Diaz really was a dud of a candidate, when it came down to it; if it weren’t for that complete screwup on his part, it probably would have been a cakewalk.
Meanwhile, there are some interesting senate results, based on the ABC Senate Calculator using the group voting numbers available so far.
Looks like Sarah Hanson-Young is going to keep her seat, partly thanks to poor Labor numbers (they didn’t get enough primary for two seats, and their excess quota will probably flow to the Greens). In addition, Xenophon looks to be getting a massive vote, more than even Labor; not quite enough for his second candidate to get in with him, though. Family First also gets a seat, based on current numbers.
On early numbers, I had HEMP getting a seat in Queensland. After it settled a bit more, I have Liberals getting 3, Labor getting 2, and PUP getting one.
Looks like the Liberal Democrats will get a seat in NSW, along with 2 Labor and 3 Liberals.
In Victoria, the Greens appear to have gotten a seat, but more importantly, so too did the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party… this could be interesting. Labor and Liberals on two each.
In Tasmania, Greens and PUP both get a seat, alongside 2 Lab and 2 Lib.
WA numbers are too preliminary for me to use them (less than 20% counted so far). But based on eyeballed guesses, it looks like Liberals get two, possibly 3, Labor gets one, possibly 2, Greens have a good chance of getting one (especially if Labor doesn’t get the second seat), and the final seat could be Nats, PUP, or, less likely, Liberal Democrats.
Labor and Liberals will both get one in NT, as expected. ACT should also go one each.
So here’s my final tally, including continuing senators (meaning, the totals for 2014-2017):
Coalition: 33
Labor: 26
Greens: 10
PUP: 2
FF: 1
DLP: 1
LDP: 1
AMEP: 1
Independent: 1 (Xenophon)
By my understanding, this means a shared balance of power. For Tony Abbott to pass things through the Senate, he’ll need either the Greens or all bar one of the other crossbench senators (because the Senate speaker will be a Coalition member, thus reducing their number by 1, and so to reach the magic 38, they’ll need 6, with 7 non-Green crossbenchers).
The exact number may change as WA senate votes come in, as postal votes are counted, or as below-the-line votes modify the flows… or if the exact numbers along the way are just slightly off from the 0.01% measure being used.
With a bit more of the WA vote counted (now at over 32%), now using the Election Calculator, I have Labor getting one, Liberals getting three, Greens getting one… and then the Australian Sports Party getting one. They must have incredible preference flows, because they got less than 0.3% of the vote.
So from my numbers above, take one away from Labor and give it to the Sports Party.
The result is holding as the count continues – over 51%, now, and still the Sports Party get a seat, according to the senate calculator. At this point, I think the only realistic way for the seat to not go to the Sports Party is for below-the-line voting to be strong enough to alter the numbers.
Senate results
Yeah amazing result and only off .22% as you stated!! A Greens rant about micro parties will get a good hearing post this election result esp once the new govt has to deal with a bunch of new minor party or single issue senators – which currently could be 8!
Who the heck is the Motoring Enthusiast Party in Vic that looks to get a spot? And what an amazing number for Xeno in SA! PUP in Tas is a surprise as well.
It’s an interesting situation for Abbott – he has three choices with each piece of legislation:
1. Deal with Labor, go for “bipartisanship” and bypass all of the crossbenchers.
2. Deal with the Greens, which are a bloc big enough to get stuff past if they support it, which may be easier than dealing with Labor in some cases.
3. Deal with the other crossbenchers, which means he’d need 6 of 8 – upside is that they tend to lean to the right, but downside is that it requires dealing with 7 separate “groups”, each with their own agenda.
The three big unknowns I’m seeing with regards to the “carbon tax” issue are Xenophon, the Sports Party and Family First. The other crossbenchers should support Abbott on it without too much hassle, but Xenophon and Family First would probably at least put conditions on their support; Sports Party is just plain unknown, we have no idea what they’ll do – they’re all about health, which could mean that they’ll vote against “Scrapping” it, but they may just wheel and deal on it.
I think that we need to see who actually wins what first. Then, we can attempt to analyse the political leanings of these unknown single party Senators. Both Motoring and Sports sounds like front parties but I have no idea at all who they are.
Thereafter, I’d be attempting to do what you just posted above which of course every political journo and their granny will also be doing. It is way too early at this stage other than to say Abbotts tactic at requesting that minor parties didn’t control the Senate has backfired in a big way.
The Coalition is going to need a fantastic Senate leader to negotiate legislation with so many individuals – something that their current Senate leader is probably not best suit for. Thinking someone like Albo in the HoR with the Inds. No one comes immediately to mind who is a senior Lib Senator.
Just doing a quick count it seems that there will be a large number of marginals for next time. Something like nearly 30 seats under 3% and around 10 seats under 1%!! Obviously, we have to wait for final results but it will mean that there will be many nervous backbenchers to deal with.
If they really are “front parties” their preferences tickets may be helpful in describing their views.
Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party: Family First; Shooters & Fishers; Sex Party; Democrats; Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; DLP; Australian Christians; half Coalition, half Labor; Greens.
Australian Sports Party: Wikileaks; Katter’s Australian Party; Palmer United Party; Shooters & Fishers; Democrats; Family First; Australian Christians; Nationals; Liberal; Greens; Labor; One Nation.
With just over 76% of the vote the Primary is LNP 45, ALP 34, Greens 8, Others 13% (PUP 6%) with 2PP 53.3/46.7. With approx. 18% of the Primary vote to go, I say it will end up around 54/46.
The motorists aren’t a front party – they ran very strongly in the last ACT election under Chic Henry, the former promotor of Summernats.
Their policy priorities are what you would expect – more roads, more parking, less speed cameras, anti-cyclist. “Out of my way, I’m a motorist!”
It’s pretty municipal stuff of course and will be all at sea in a Federal setting.
OK, I’m doing a new run of the senate numbers using the ABC senate calculator. Here’s what I’m getting for each state/territory:
NSW (69.22% counted): Liberal, Labor, National, Labor, LDP, Liberal
Vic (61.25% counted): Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Labor, Greens, Motoring Enthusiasts
Qld (66.24% counted): LNP, Labor, LNP, Labor, PUP, LNP
WA (61.75% counted): Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Liberal, Sports Party, Greens
SA (71.36% counted): Liberal, Xenophon, Labor, Greens, Family First, Liberal
Tas (78.3% counted): Liberal, Labor, Liberal, Labor, Greens, PUP
ACT (61.42% counted): Labor, Liberal
NT (48.65% counted): Liberal, Labor
I believe that means it’s unchanged so far, except perhaps the exact ordering in a couple of cases.
3 minors elected in South Australia. Wow.
Also wow @ South Australia and Western Australia only returning one Labor Senator.
Truth Seeker (http://originaltruthseeker.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/senate-results-consolidated-8-9-2013.html) says:
* NSW: Labor and Liberal/National are both guaranteed two Senators, as well as the Liberal Democrats being guaranteed one Senator. 3rd LNP likely to pick up the last seat.
* Victoria: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Green guaranteed. AMEP extremely likely to pick up the last seat.
* Queensland: 2 LNP, 1 Labor and 1 PUP guaranteed. 3rd Liberal and 2nd Labor extremely likely to pick up the last two seats.
* Western Australia: Only state with some doubt. 2 Liberal and 1 Labor guaranteed. 3rd Liberal virtually guaranteed. For the last two seats, the Greens are likely to knock off the 2nd Labor candidate for the “Left” seat, whereas the Sport Party has the edge over the PUP (with the LDP an outside chance) for the “Right” seat.
* South Australia: Labor, Liberal and Nick Xenophon all guaranteed a Senator each. All but certain that Liberals will gain a second Senator. Very likely that the Greens will pick up the 5th seat, likely that the FFP will pick up the last seat.
* Tasmania: Labor and Liberals are guaranteed 2 Senators each, Greens guaranteed one. Likely the PUP gains the last seat.
I couldn’t post my predictions yesterday because of problems affecting this site. So following is what I predicted:
Coalition gains in NSW (14)
6 Firm – Robertson, Lindsay, Reid, Dobell (from IND), Lyne (from IND), New England (from IND)
5 Likely – Greenway, Banks, Page, Parramatta, Kingsford Smith
3 Possible – Eden-Monaro, Barton, McMahon
Coalition gains in VIC (4)
2 Firm – Deakin, La Trobe
1 Likely – Corangamite
1 Possible – Bendigo
Coalition gains in QLD (4)
2 Firm – Moreton, Fisher (from IND)
2 Likely – Petrie, Capricornia
1 Coalition gain likely in SA: Hindmarsh
2 Coalition gains likely in TAS – Bass, Braddon
1 Coalition gain likely in NT – Lingiari
I tipped Labor to hold these 12 seats, although Coalition wins wouldn’t have surprised me –
Werriwa, Fowler (NSW), Lyons (TAS), Chisholm, Bruce, McEwen (VIC), Adelaide, Wakefield (SA), Lilley, Blair, Rankin, Griffith (QLD)
I didn’t tip the Coalition to lose any seats, but I would’ve kept an eye on these 12 because of their margins or opponents in them –
Macquarie, Gilmore (NSW), Aston, Indi (VIC), Hasluck (WA), Brisbane, Forde, Herbert, Fairfax, Hinkler (QLD), Boothby (SA), Solomon (NT)
We’ll soon see how I went here!
This bodes well (not) if the AMEP gets the final spot in Victoria. On the ABC;
“A post on Mr Muir’s Facebook page, dated May 2, 2011 – the day Osama bin Laden was killed – suggests that former US president George Bush was behind the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Another post, dated March 9, 2011, said that paying for a Ford “is like dating a prostitute”. He also suggested that people should be drug tested before they are given welfare.
The privacy settings on his Facebook page have been increased since the posts were discovered.”
No blood bath in qld with labor likely to retain all seats, NSW only page lindsay and banks gone with robertson likely to follow with modest small swings compared to what has been said. Victoria the 3 that everyone believed to fall, tas 2 gone with Lyons liberal looking good and only 5% in franklin. Sa 1 gone with Adelaide and Wakefield holding despite comments on this site. Nt labor still a chance in Solomon with lingiari likely to be retained. Hope we all learnt something about polling this election and how dependent we should be on it
Observer – All the national (Newspoll, Neilsen, Galaxy) major polls all predicted 53/54 LNP to 47/46 ALP in the final days. The current 2PP is 53.3/46.7 with about 76% of the primary vote counted. Basically all the major polls should get a pass mark.
Electorate-level polling, on the other hand, has proven to be basically worthless.
You beat me to it kme.
A big thank you though to the electorate level pollsters though for blowing out the odds in a few seats like Kingsford Smith, Melbourne, Griffith, Moreton and Eden Monaro! 🙂
Good work guys – I’m looking forward to your next performance.
Indvidual polls not national ones and certain internal polling comments proved to be mostly off the mark. A sky ewes exit poll said labor will lose 14 in nsw and 8 in qld. You seriously think that news poll gets a pass mark?
So, Palmer has been calling himself Abbott’s kingmaker, because of Palmer preferences getting Liberals over the line in a number of places.
I figured I’d look at what the likely impact of Palmer preferencing Labor would have been. I’ll assume a 70-30 preference flow in favour of the preferenced party. Percentages indicate real and theoretical margins (for Labor). All numbers based on current figures, so Petrie is assumed to fall while Capricornia is assumed to be retained (exact results may differ either way)
Seats Labor lost that would have been saved:
Braddon (-2.27% to 1.6%)
Lyons (-1.25% to 1.62%)
Dobell (-0.65% to 0.71%)
Petrie (-0.46% to 3.74%)
Reid (-0.44% to 0.14%)
Eden-Monaro (-0.17% to 1.98%)
Seats Labor would pick up off the Coalition:
Solomon (-0.94% to 1.08%)
Gilmore (-2.54% to 0.04%)
Bonner (-3.14% to 0.03%)
Forde (-4.15% to 0.95%)
So Palmer preferencing Labor appears to only change the result in 10 seats (on current numbers). Not enough to change the overall election result. But interestingly, it would have won Forde for Peter Beattie, which would have made the choice of new Labor leader significantly easier – there’s little doubt in my mind that Beattie would end up being the new leader, if he got in.
If the Greens ever got their act together and focussed solely on the Senate, they would be a force to be reckoned with.
Wasting their minimal resources on ego-tripping Reps candidates with zero chance of winning …. is sheer folly.
Right or wrong, I believe they are the party with the purist motives – but they could not organize a chook raffle.
Keith
the route to the Senate involves maximising the vote across the state which involves running lower house candidates to maximise coverage of polling places. How much effort you put into particular seats is a matter for judgement – if you have got a chance to improve your vote in a lower house seat – its a good way to increase your Senate vote. Easy really
ACT is a good example of what I mean – Senate was the main focus of the campaign but there were candidates in both lower house seats.
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