I’ve had much less time than I would have liked to blog during the campaign, and have used my little spare time to update the lists of candidates for each House of Representatives seat.
It seems appropriate now to open a new thread for commenters to give their predictions before election day.
The polling is telling a consistent message: the Coalition is on track for a solid victory. Most polls have the Liberal/National Coalition leading with 52% or 53% of the two-party-preferred vote.
The ALP appears to be on track to lose ground, with the Queensland strategy failing to net them any extra seats. The ALP now appears to be gravely concerned about losing seats in Queensland including those of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan, and there is little hope that star candidate Peter Beattie will turf out Bert Van Manen in Forde.
In the minor party stakes the Greens vote is hovering around 10% – better than in the recent past but not as high as at the last election.
Some recent polling has also indicated that Clive Palmer’s party has registered significantly in the polls, particularly in Queensland. Clearly his high level of spending on the election has had an effect, but it’s hard to judge if polls are under- or over-estimating PUP support.
I won’t make any detailed predictions, but others shouldn’t feel so constrained – obviously people have already started making predictions for individual seats on individual seat profiles, but you can use this thread to make detailed or simple predictions about the national result.
I predict that I’ll drink too much tonight and wake up tomorrow in a fuzzy and less fair Australia where it’s okay to gouge social services from the poor to give tax cuts to mining magnates.
Also, ALP 59, Lib 89, Indi 2, Bandt to narrowly miss out. Senate will be a mess with right-wing micro parties getting up in Vic and SA. Xeno to be returned, along with two Libs and two ALP. 3-2-1 return in the other four states, Palmer and Katter and Hanson missing out.
*Drink too much tomorrow and wake up Sunday. It seems like election day already.
I think the polling will reflect the lower house results, but I think there will still be surprises to be had in the Senate.
All the way with Bobby Day, to snatch 6th senate seat from SHY in SA. (and the carbon septics, whom SHY is preferencing)
I’m really disappointed that the football is on delayed telecast because of the election coverage.
Tobias – Define ‘preferencing, maybe above Day, but below all left/centre parties.
I know people are going to disagree with my predictions, but I think there’s a key phenomenon going on that means that the opinion polls are inaccurate, and biasing in favour of the Coalition due to a flaw in how polling is done.
My prediction is that there’ll be a last-minute apparent swing to Labor, bringing opinion polls back to 52-48, but they’ll be out by about 2%, resulting in something remarkably close to 2010 in terms of nationwide 2PP at the actual election.
I predict that the Coalition will end up with 84 seats again, with Labor losing a heap in NSW (especially western sydney), plus one or two in Tasmania (the “undecided” numbers down there are pretty high according to the most recent seat polling, especially in the seats where the Coalition are leading), but gaining a couple in WA and more than expected in Queensland. I also think either KAP or PUP will pick up one or two seats that would otherwise have gone to the Coalition, and McGowan will pick up Indi. I expect Bandt and Wilkie to both retain.
I’m also going to predict a surprise upset in one other seat – a seat where either an independent wins against all odds, or a minor party streaks into the 2CP and manages to win. This is based on my sense that there’s a shift against both major parties in general in politics, resulting in independents, minor parties and greens getting more of the vote at each subsequent election.
I might be very wrong. But what fun is making a prediction that is considered a “safe” one?
Indeed Glen. I expect Tassie to be the shock story with above average swings. I’m predicting no changes in SA or WA.
Croc – I was torn between going to watch the Wallabies vs Springboks on free tickets at Suncorp or watching Antony Green at home.
Alas, Wallabies won (for once).
Glen,
What “key phenomenon”?
People are banging on about Landline phones, but that doesn’t explain why polls using internet, SMS, face-to-face, mobiles, or a combination of these all show basically the same story as traditional landline polls.
In terms of senate, my prediction is that the Greens get 3-4 seats, KAP gets one (although it might be PUP instead), FF gets one, Xenophon gets one, and 2-3 other seats go to minor or micro parties. I see Labor and Coalition getting roughly an equal number of seats, meaning that the balance of power is expanded, but otherwise unchanged. However, it also means that the Greens may not have enough to be necessary for passing legislation (when the Opposition isn’t supporting the legislation).
Reps:
Min 6 seat majority to Coalition. I think The Libs might take one or two seats from the Nats. Wilkie and Katter to win, 1% chance of Bandt winning because of voters not following HTV. No more then 2 other IND.
Senate:
QLD Lib 3, ALP 2, PUP 1
VIC and TAS Lib 3, Alp 2, grn 1
act/nt no change
winediamond
Posted September 5, 2013 at 12:49 PM
There has been a clear trend over the last 2 weeks. If there has been a variation,i’ve missed it. Therefore it is reasonable to extrapolate on the basis of the trend continue , or accelerate till tomorrow. Feels like ACCELERATING INTO A LAST MINUTE “NOSE DIVE”
Seems that the ALP have a 90% chance of losing 21 seats. Then we move to the fulcrum seats where they will lose 2/3 rd’s for an outcome of a total loss of 27- 28 seats. This will be a record defeat, greater than 1996, & less seats held (in the house). That is kind of neat, & will be a good motivator for party reform
So the 21 that will go
Greenway,Lindsay,Reid,Banks,Robertson,Dobell,Parramatta,Page,Werriwa,Barton, Moreton,Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia,Blair, Deakin, Corrangimite,La Trobe,Bruce,Adelaide, Lingiari.
So the fulcrum is 2 of the 21 + Rankin Oxley, Richmond, KINGSFORD SMITH,McMAHON, EDEN MONARO,BRAND, HINDMARSH,Wakefield, Chisholm, Melbourne Ports, Bendigo McEwen. Coalition better than even to win in CAPS.Leaving the balance of another3-4 to come from other fulcrum seats.
This produces the required loss of 27-28 seats.
Libs to lose Indi & possibly Solomon
Greens to hold Melbourne
Parliment to be LIB/NAT = 102
ALP = 44
IND = 3
GRN= 1
Anyway that’s the way i see it
winediamond
Posted September 5, 2013 at 1:00 PM
OOPS
How Freudian i forgot Tasmania !!! Shows how unimportant the place really is !!! Or how little i think of the place !!!. Just to Illustrate this point when Bass & Braddon are added to the 21 the coalition still end up with 21 seats as an outcome, & Lyons is added to the fulcrum seats, i only have to remove M’c Ewen for the whole prognosis to still add up
Mark – I’m not referring to mobile phones, I’m referring to the “undecided vote” not being evenly distributed between the parties. I think that it’s the usual reason for polling being inaccurate, and was lower in 2010 because the forces influencing undecided votes were balanced – people split between Labor and Greens on the one hand, and people uncertain regarding Abbott on the other. This time, people are still uncertain about Labor and Greens, but Abbott is looking less troublesome to the undecideds because of a well-run campaign… and then there’s Rudd vs Labor (Rudd is relatively popular, but Labor is relatively unpopular, leaving people more uncertain than usual); this means that undecideds would be expected to lean to the left more than usual, in my opinion.
I’ve spoken about it a few times in various places on here, before. My theory is that a combination of “Undecided” and call-rejected cases are involved. Note that polling that asks for people to say how confident they are that they won’t change their mind has borne out this behaviour, with the Coalition voters being consistently more confident that they wouldn’t change their mind than Labor or Greens (or Others) voters. Numbers are starting to firm up for all of them, now, but still strongest for the Coalition.
The Labor/Greens issue should resolve itself before the actual day, but only barely. This is the reason for the perceived swing I referred to, bringing most polls back to 52-48. The other factors won’t be resolved until the person is actually at the polling booth. In 2010, a JWS poll of not far from 30,000 respondents on the day before the election had Labor ahead 52-48. With 30,000 respondents, the MoE would be about 0.6%. The actual result was 50.1-49.9, well outside the MoE. This would be because some Abbott voters made their final decision at the booth, moreso than Gillard voters. It’s also worth noting that I believe that robopolling exacerbates the effect, especially in marginal or likely-to-be-marginal seats.
I’m sticking with my prediction that the House of Reps will result in 91 for the Coalition and a 2PP of close to 53.5% of the vote.
I fear in the Senate, the Coalition will be one short of being able to deal with the minor fractured parties, which would be a great shame where an election is so decisive in its result.
I’m expecting (and betting) on roughly 90 seats, possible as high as 94, for the coalition
ALP wins: NT: Solomon
Independent wins: Indi
Coalition:
NSW: Parramatta, Reid, Robertson, Dobell, Lindsay, Banks, Page
Qld: Petrie, Moreton, Lilley
Vic: Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, Bruce, Chisholm,
Tas: Braddon, Bass, Lyons
SA: Hindmarsh
Uncertain
NSW: Greenway, Kingsford-Smith, Newcastle
Vic: Corio, McEwen, Melbourne Ports
Tas: Franklin
SA: Adelaide
I expect that ALP will hold Werriwa, McMahon and Barton on the back of the education campaign that has been pushed by a number of the migrant communities in an attempt to reduce the informal vote. The ALP’s sandbagging may prove effective here.
Wilkie and Katter both to be returned.
Libs 45, ALP 35, Greens 8, Others 12. Libs on 52%/52.5% 2PP
Green vote to fall outside of the inner city, but rise in the inner city.
Summary of predictions:
Labor: 54
Coalition: 92
Independent: 1
Katter’s Australian Party: 1
Greens: 0
Tossup: 2
By seat:
Adelaide (ALP 7.5%)
Kate Ellis is a prominent member of the government, although she was one of only two incumbents in South Australia to have a swing against her last time. Will depend on both the overall performance of the Liberals in SA, and Ellis’ performance as a minister. I personally think Ellis will retain, narrowly.
Aston (LIB 0.7%)
Labor have done well in Victoria over the past two cycles, although I expect Aston to become safer for the Liberals.
Ballarat (ALP 11.7%)
Labor retain, unless there is a large swing in regional Victoria, which I can’t see happening here.
Banks (ALP 1.5%)
Although very marginal, Banks had a strong swing to the Liberals last time, which may be hard to top. Looking like a Liberal gain now.
Barker (LIB 13.0%)
Liberal retain.
Barton (ALP 6.9%)
Normally a Labor stronghold, sitting MP Robert McClelland is retiring, although Labor should hold this narrowly.
Bass (ALP 6.7%)
Given the strong movement away from Labor in Tasmania, Liberal gain.
Batman (ALP 24.8%)
Labor retain.
Bendigo (ALP 9.4%)
Like Ballarat, the Liberals should only pick this up in the event of a large swing back to them in regional Victoria.
Bennelong (LIB 3.1%)
The Liberals should strengthen their hold here, despite Labor’s choice of candidate.
Berowra (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.
Blair (ALP 4.2%)
ALP retain, as Labor’s situation has improved in Queensland since the last election with the return of Rudd.
Blaxland (ALP 12.2%)
Labor retain.
Bonner (LNP 2.8%)
Should become safer for the LNP.
Boothby (LIB 0.3%)
Although Andrew Southcott suffered a 2.2% swing against him last time, in addition to the last redistribution weakening his already slim hold on the seat, the last election was something of a high watermark for Labor in South Australia, so he should be returned here fairly easily.
Bowman (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.
Braddon (ALP 7.5%)
Liberal gain, even if Sid Sidebottom is popular.
Bradfield (LIB 18.2%)
Liberal retain.
Brand (ALP 3.3%)
Labor have always held this seat since its creation in 1984, although they have come close to losing it before, most notably in 1996. One to watch, although this would be significantly safer for Labor on the figures of the last state election. On current polling, Labor hold.
Brisbane (LNP 1.1%)
Not a traditional conservative seat, an LNP member for this seat would normally be an anomaly. Given the anti-Labor climate in Queensland at the moment, I’d expect the LNP to hold on to this seat, although Rudd’s return may change things…
Bruce (ALP 7.7%)
Although held by Labor since 1996, 2013 has seen this seat become somewhat vulnerable for the first time in a long time. Still Labor in my book though.
Calare (NAT 10.7%)
National retain.
Calwell (ALP 20.0%)
Labor retain.
Canberra (ALP 9.2%)
Labor retain.
Canning (LIB 2.2%)
Liberal retain, probably with an increased majority.
Capricornia (ALP 3.7%)
One to watch, given the sitting member is retiring and the still-grim climate for Labor in Queensland. Now looking like a ALP hold, particularly with the Katter vote.
Casey (LIB 1.9%)
Liberal retain.
Charlton (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.
Chifley (ALP 12.3%)
Labor retain.
Chisholm (ALP 5.8%)
On current polling, Labor hold, Burke favouring from being Speaker and incumbency. Would be Liberal held on state figures.
Cook (LIB 12.7%)
Liberal retain.
Corangamite (ALP 0.3%)
Should be an easy Liberal gain.
Corio (ALP 13.5%)
Labor retain.
Cowan (LIB 6.3%)
Liberal retain.
Cowper (NAT 9.3%)
National retain.
Cunningham (ALP 13.2%)
Labor retain.
Curtin (LIB 16.2%)
Liberal retain.
Dawson (LNP 2.4%)
Likely LNP retain.
Deakin (ALP 0.6%)
Liberal gain, particularly after the last redistribution added areas such as Ringwood to the seat.
Denison (IND 1.2% vs ALP)
Andrew Wilkie has been a strong member, and should be re-elected easily.
Dickson (LNP 5.1%)
LNP retain.
Dobell (ALP 5.1%)
Considering what has happened to the sitting member, Craig Thomson, over the past few years, this should be an easy Liberal gain.
Dunkley (LIB 1.1%)
Liberal retain, despite the small margin.
Durack (LIB 13.7%)
With Barry Haase retiring, this is a contest between the Liberals and the Nationals. National gain, but with no confidence.
Eden-Monaro (ALP 4.2%)
A bellwether seat since 1972, Mike Kelly is a strong member, although the seat’s bellwether tendencies should continue to remain true in 2013.
Fadden (LNP 14.2%)
LNP retain.
Fairfax (LNP 7.0%)
LNP retain, although Clive Palmer will likely come second.
Farrer (LIB 14.5%)
Liberal retain.
Fisher (LNP 4.1%)
Peter Slipper, like Craig Thomson, has made quite a mess of himself, and the LNP should win this one back.
Flinders (LIB 9.1%)
Liberal retain.
Flynn (LNP 3.6%)
LNP retain.
Forde (LNP 1.6%)
Peter Beattie’s sudden candidacy has made this a toss-up, I’d still favour the LNP here though.
Forrest (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
Fowler (ALP 8.8%)
Likely Labor retain, although this could become quite marginal.
Franklin (ALP 10.8%)
One to watch, this could go either way, especially with current Tasmanian polling.
Fraser (ALP 14.2%)
Labor retain.
Fremantle (ALP 5.7%)
Labor retain.
Gellibrand (ALP 24.1%)
Labor retain.
Gilmore (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain, despite Joanna Gash’s retirement.
Gippsland (NAT 11.5%)
National retain.
Goldstein (LIB 6.0%)
Liberal retain.
Gorton (ALP 23.6%)
Labor retain.
Grayndler (ALP 20.6%)
This seat only has a 4.2% margin against the Greens, although Anthony Albanese is a strong member, and the Greens have gone down in polling over the past 3 years.
Grey (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.
Greenway (ALP 0.9%)
Likely Liberal gain, despite the horrible choice of Liberal candidate.
Griffith (ALP 8.5%)
Despite a couple of polls suggesting Rudd may lose here, he should be safe.
Groom (LNP 18.5%)
LNP retain.
Hasluck (LIB 0.7%)
Likely Liberal retain, although if Labor is to gain any seats in WA in 2013, this is the most likely gain.
Herbert (LNP 2.2%)
Likely LNP retain, although Katter’s party and the return of Rudd could pose a significant challenge.
Higgins (LIB 5.4%)
Liberal retain.
Hindmarsh (ALP 6.1%)
The seat most likely to be lost by Labor in South Australia, I’ll go with a Liberal gain, but with no confidence.
Hinkler (LNP 10.4%)
LNP retain.
Holt (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain, although I expect a large swing against them here.
Hotham (ALP 14.0%)
Labor retain.
Hughes (LIB 5.2%)
Liberal retain.
Hume (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
Hunter (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain.
Indi (LIB 9.0%)
Cathy McGowan is a strong independent, and this is now a seat to watch. If I had to choose, a narrow Liberal hold.
Isaacs (ALP 10.4%)
Labor retain, unless the swing in Victoria is large.
Jagajaga (ALP 11.1%)
Labor retain.
Kennedy (KAP 18.3% vs LNP)
Bob Katter should win easily, although with a swing against him.
Kingsford Smith (ALP 5.2%)
Normally an easy win for Labor, 2013 could see this seat go Liberal for the first time, although I’d still favour Labor here, narrowly.
Kingston (ALP 14.5%)
Hard to call, the Labor margin is VERY over-inflated, so there could be a large swing back to the Liberals this year. The swing will most likely not be enough for the Liberals to pick this up, though.
Kooyong (LIB 7.5%)
Liberal retain.
La Trobe (ALP 1.7%)
Key contest, likely a Liberal gain.
Lalor (ALP 22.1%)
Labor retain.
Leichhardt (LNP 4.6%)
LNP retain, even with the KAP.
Lilley (ALP 3.2%)
A prize target for the LNP, Lilley will likely be a narrow Labor hold in 2013.
Lindsay (ALP 1.1%)
Liberal gain.
Lingiari (ALP 3.7%)
Normally a Labor seat, the significant swings to the CLP in last year’s NT election may be repeated here, in which case the CLP could easily win this. Current polling reflects this, and Lingiari is a CLP gain in my book.
Longman (LNP 1.9%)
LNP retain.
Lyne (IND 12.7% vs NAT)
National gain.
Lyons (ALP 12.3%)
Like Franklin, this is hard to pin down, it could go either way, although Labor have more of a chance here, thanks to Dick Adams’ personal vote and a higher margin.
Macarthur (LIB 3.0%)
Liberal retain.
Mackellar (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.
Macquarie (LIB 1.3%)
Liberal retain.
Makin (ALP 12.0%)
Hard to call, the margin is quite over-inflated, although Tony Zappia is quite popular. This is an outer-suburban swing area though, and very much in play. Still a Labor hold in my book.
Mallee (NAT 23.3%)
The first real contest here since 1993, both the Nationals and the Liberals have a good chance here, although I’m going with the Nationals.
Maranoa (LNP 22.9%)
LNP retain.
Maribyrnong (ALP 17.5%)
Labor retain.
Mayo (LIB 7.3%)
Liberal retain.
McEwen (ALP 9.2%)
Strengthened for Labor in the last redistribution, they should hold on here, I’d expect it to go back to more marginal territory though.
McMahon (ALP 7.8%)
Normally safe Labor, McMahon could surprise in 2013, although since the return of Rudd, this should stay red.
McMillan (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain.
McPherson (LNP 10.3%)
LNP retain.
Melbourne (GRN 6.0% vs ALP)
The Green tide has receded somewhat, and this could be enough to kick Adam Bandt out of office. Given Liberal preferences, Labor should narrowly regain this.
Melbourne Ports (ALP 7.9%)
Likely Labor retain, unless the Liberal swing is very strong.
Menzies (LIB 8.7%)
Liberal retain.
Mitchell (LIB 17.2%)
Liberal retain.
Moncrieff (LNP 17.5%)
LNP retain.
Moore (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.
Moreton (ALP 1.1%)
Graham Perrett is fairly popular, although should lose his seat the way the ALP are going in Queensland. Rudd’s return has complicated things somewhat here. Probably the most likely LNP pick-up, if I had to go one way, I say narrow LNP gain.
Murray (LIB 19.6%)
Liberal retain.
New England (IND 21.5% vs NAT)
Easy National gain.
Newcastle (ALP 12.5%)
Labor retain, although a big swing could be on the cards.
North Sydney (LIB 14.1%)
Liberal retain.
O’Connor (WAN 3.6% vs LIB)
With Tony Crook bowing out after one term, the result here will depend on the quality of the National and Liberal candidates. My guess is a National hold.
Oxley (ALP 5.8%)
After Griffith, the seat Labor are most likely to hold in Queensland, and they should hold here.
Page (ALP 4.2%)
Key contest, if I had to choose, narrow National gain.
Parkes (NAT 18.9%)
National retain.
Parramatta (ALP 4.4%)
Key seat, and probably the hardest Sydney seat to predict. At the moment, Liberal gain, but with no confidence.
Paterson (LIB 5.3%)
Liberal retain.
Pearce (LIB 8.9%)
Liberal retain.
Perth (ALP 5.9%)
With Allanah MacTiernan as the new Labor candidate, Labor retain.
Petrie (ALP 2.5%)
Pure toss-up, especially with Rudd’s return and its small swing in 2010.
Port Adelaide (ALP 21.0%)
Labor retain.
Rankin (ALP 5.4%)
Likely Labor hold.
Reid (ALP 2.7%)
Likely Liberal gain.
Richmond (ALP 7.0%)
Harder to win than Page, this could go National in 2013, although my guess is a narrow Labor retain.
Riverina (NAT 18.2%)
National retain.
Robertson (ALP 1.0%)
Likely Liberal gain.
Ryan (LNP 7.2%)
LNP retain.
Scullin (ALP 20.6%)
Labor retain.
Shortland (ALP 12.9%)
Labor retain, this would be Liberal held on state figures though.
Solomon (CLP 1.8%)
CLP retain.
Stirling (LIB 5.6%)
Liberal retain.
Sturt (LIB 3.6%)
Liberal retain, likely with a significantly increased majority.
Swan (LIB 2.5%)
Liberal retain.
Sydney (ALP 17.1%)
Labor retain.
Tangney (LIB 12.3%)
Liberal retain.
Thorsby (ALP 12.1%)
Labor retain.
Wakefield (ALP 10.5%)
Like Makin and Kingston, the margin in Wakefield is quite inflated, and could swing back to the Liberals significantly in 2013. Hard to call at this stage, although Labor retain for now.
Wannon (LIB 5.7%)
Liberal retain.
Warringah (LIB 13.1%)
Liberal retain.
Watson (ALP 9.1%)
Labor retain.
Wentworth (LIB 14.9%)
Liberal retain.
Werriwa (ALP 6.8%)
The fact that Werriwa is a possibility of a Liberal pickup highlights the problems Labor have had in New South Wales recently, although Werriwa should stay Labor barring an upset.
Wide Bay (LNP 15.6%)
LNP retain.
Wills (ALP 23.5%)
Labor retain.
Wright (LNP 10.2%)
LNP retain.
a swing of 7-9% to the Coalition … except in Indi, Sophie Mirabella will lose her seat
I posted predictions on another site a few days ago, but they need to be updated. Will do so later.
Minor correction – I just realised I typed “84” for the number of Coalition seats. I meant “74”. Makes an important difference to my prediction.
Just a bit of fun. I predict. LNP 90, ALP 57, IND 3. Don’t really care that much who wins as long as Mirabella gets the flick and no senate majority.
hard to tell the gap between a narrow lib win less than 10 seats and roughly 20 is very small
in Nsw…. I expect that Werriwa, Mcmahon Kingford Smith , Parramatta and Barton will be retained,by ALP, outside chance of Alp gain of Gilmore. ALP to retain 3 country seats. of the remainder of close seats Greenway,Banks and Reid are borderline. In Vic ….libs to lose Indi to ind., chance in Wannon.3 most marginal seats hard to retain. QLD…no losses possible 1 to 2 gains for ALP, Fisher chance of lib loss. WA similar to QLD probably no net change.
NT…. either ALP plus 1 or minus 1…. most likely no change. SA…. no change.. TAS loss of 1 to 2 seats…. not 3
The seats of New England and Lyne to return to L-NP
Also there will be pro ALP swings in some of the closest lib held marginals in NSW
Morgan poll apparently has it 53.5-46.5, not sure which preference allocation method. Labor on 31.5% of the primary vote, but surely they’ll get more than that?
Apparently there’ll be another one tomorrow.
You’d think so. I tend to think that Morgan has the widest range in their results and this was an outlier re: Labor’s primary vote. I don’t think it will be enough, but the Libs have had a bad final two days, with the aid cuts and filter fail, so I don’t think Labor will do worse than 46.5 and will possibly get quite a bit better. We’ll know soon enough.
Sandbelter
Question. What makes you sure of Chisholm, & Bruce falling ???. Just seems a little out of step with your other predictions.
I’m being cynical here PJ, but I reckon promising foreign aid cuts will go down an absolute treat in Lindsay-ville……
Morgan Poll – I don’t think the ALP can get to 46.5% 2PP with a primary vote of 31.5 and the Greens on 9%. It must be respondent allocated preferences. I agree with PJ that Morgan is much more unstable than Nelisen, Newspoll and Galaxy. Neilsen and Newspoll should be out this evening or early tomorrow. I assume they will be based on polling done on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully the samples will be large (over 2000).
Latest polls:
Essential: 52/48 (internet)
ReachTEL: 53/47 (robopoll)
Morgan: 53.5/46.5 (face-to-face and internet)
Nielsen: out tomorrow over two nights. I heard the first night was 53(+)/47(-).
Labor to lose seats in NSW and Tassie but pick up some in WA and QLD.
Sorry I made a mistake. The Morgan appears to be SMS, Phone and on-line. Coalition primary 45% and Labor 31.5%, Greens 9%. That would be a 55/45 result (unquestionably) based on 2010 and assuming a 50/50 split of PUP preference, which I believe will be higher to the Libs based on HTV.
I suspect ALP is understated here by at least a couple of percent possibly at the expense of others or PUP.
Call naive, or biased.
However I get the feeling that the last few days the momentum have shifted to Labor, this is not measured in polls because none of them do social media where the momentum is.
My prediction is Bandt to retain Melbourne, Greens could win Sydney, It will be another hung parliament but with ALP to gain a net of 3 seats (with a fair bit of losing but gaining seats in other areas, in particular from independents). However a ALP government with one-two independents or the Greens can form majority.
If the Morgan result as communicated by DB is accurate,then the ALP will win 53 seats according to Antony Green’s calculator.That is only 4 seats more than the result Julia Gillard would have got based on betting markets at the time the challenge took place,which was 49 seats.Remember that when watching coverage tomorrow.
Jesus Anton! Is there really a need to list every single seat!!!
So the last 4 polls released in the last 24 hrs are pretty consistent
Morgan 53.5, 53 from Galaxy, 52 from Essential, 53 from ReachTEL, with Newspoll & Nielsen to come tomorrow am though we should see some figures late tonight.
As I said yest, “The blow out to 55% that some Coalition supporters were talking up a week to 2 ago seems unlikely. The best the ALP can hope for is probably 52% but let’s see what figures Newspoll, Morgan and Neilsen put out in the next 30 hrs.”. The range of 52.5-53.5 looks about right.
Interestingly, PB’s Bludgertrack updated as of this morning currently has (in ALP terms)-
NSW -8, Vic -2, Qld +3, WA +1, Tas -2, SA/NT/ACT no change
I can’t quite see the gains listed there. If you were an ALP supporter given all of the current land slide rhetoric that probably gives you some hope. Obviously this will change by tomorrow am once further polls are released.
coalition to win 90 + seats – will be on a liberal polling booth tomorrow – never been interested before but then I never thought I’d see the chaos of the Whitlam era revisted. Hopefully coalition can control senate with help of Xenophon and DLP rep and a Katter party/PUP rep – at the expense of greens – while I’d prefer coalition to control both houses I’m OK with independents/labor – just not Greens who are economic vandals and must never again get balance of power
Labor wins – I think only Melbourne from the Greens, but that contest is looking tighter. The only other possibility would be Flynn and Brisbane, although the last Brisbane poll was pretty bad.
LNP
– in Vic – Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe – but McEwan and Bendigo are a worry, Chisholm should be ok. Indi (Sophie Mirabella) may go independent.
– in Tassie – Bass, Braddon and Lyons
– in NSW – Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Eden Monaro (the seat that always goes with the winning party), Parramatta, Dobell and Kingsford Smith – I’m hoping the useless LNP guy in Greenway may save that seat – but it will be against the tide/tsunami. also concerns for the current Treasurer in McMahon, and other NSW seats – Page and Werriwa.
– in QLD – Moreton, and the old Treasurer may be doing a Swannie in Lilley. Petrie and Blair may be goners too but I think they will stay
– NT – Lingiari
– SA – Hindmarsh is in the balance as is
– WA – Brand, but I think both should be OK for Labor.
So the result is likely to be between 51-60 for Labor. I’m tipping 56.
jj – you do realise that the only way for the Greens to have enough power in the senate to block independents and Labor from helping the Coalition get things passed is for the Greens to have a MAJORITY in the senate?
If the Greens are such policy vandals, why is it that the Coalition didn’t work with Labor during the last three years to help get through some policies that would be better than could be achieved by Labor working with the Greens?
Oh, right – because the Coalition were on a destruction bent – they wanted to completely destroy the current government, and so they did everything in their power to try to disrupt and deface, even if it meant screwing the economy along the way.
KB has done his final seat analysis based on polling. He finds;
“COALITION WINS ELECTION (Probability: 98%)
SEAT TOTAL PROJECTION 93 COALITION 54 LABOR 3 REST
(This is an approximate projection only.)”
Worth a look, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/
Yappo, I just thought I’d post my thoughts on my seat-by-seat predictions here, rather than in each individual seat’s profile.
This election has a bit of a feel like the Qld election last year. Accordingly, I am going to say Coalition 94, Indi/KAP 3, Labor 53. If there is an error it will be that coalition will win more rather than less than the 94 predicted above.
How do we weight the Lonergan poll which has Coalition 50.8% to ALP 49.2%. The one clear point which I find interesting is that the sample seems a little low at 862 for a pre election poll.
Primaries are L/NP 42%, ALP 34%, Greens 14%, Oths 10%. In the Senate the Green vote is said to be 16%.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/06/two-party-preferred-vote-narrows
The Greens vote seems a little high in this poll perhaps by 2-3% but it also highlights a couple of things. The first which has been clear by national polling in the last month is that contrary to the gleeful Oz style article 6 months ago stating that the Greens vote had fallen dramatically to 6% and that the party would be “wiped-out”, the Greens has obviously maintained around 10%.
The second issue is that with both the ALP and Coalition attempting to be more tougher on the issue of asylum seekers it has obviously shored up the Green vote by those repulsed by such. I’d assert the proposition that the Coalitions statement yesterday that they will cut $4.5 billion from the foreign aid budget will actually further benefit the Greens with a % of blue ribbon Coalition voters in seats such as Wentworth, Kooyong, Sturt, Higgins etc actually voting Green in the Senate. Potentially, a very small % in HOR as a protest given they are safe Lib seats.
Ironically, the foreign aid cut may help the Coalition in western Sydney seats but cause them to lose some votes Senate to give the Greens. So much for putting the Greens last…..
Apols but neglected to mention with Lonergan that it was mobile ph only. Worth quoting a para;
“The fact that this is a mobile-only poll is very significant,” Lonergan said. “We know a growing proportion of Australians do not have a landline at all, and many more Australians rarely or never answer a landline call – yet almost all Australians carry a mobile phone. We believe that a mobile-only poll is the most accurate means of measuring the views of Australians in 2013.”
Such a sentiment will obviously feed into the views of many about the relative bias of landline polling. I wonder how they work out the geographic sampling? Time will tell if this methodology has merit.
Wine diamond- a number of factors converging.
The general swing is one but is important to remember the lower halves of the seat are in the sand belt, and swings are traditionally amplified in there.
Years of scrutineering have taught me never underestimate the damage the DLP does the ALP’s vote in Melbourne. Once I saw them stand in both seats I realised the ALP would face head winds to hold both seats.
Bruce has one of the largest proportions of Muslim voters in Australia, Tony Abbott’s caution on Australia’s involvement in Syria will go down well with them.
Finally, I expect one of the biggest demographic to swing will be tradies, mining and manufacturing workers. They are at the pointy end of the economic cycle and this I expect to see replicated in quite uneven swings throughout the nation. I think coal miners in the Hunter (watching the collapse of Nathan Tinkers empire) for example (like forestry workers in Tasmania watching the collapse of Gunns) are beginning realise the Greens are more dangerous to their interests than the Liberals, so I see an above average swing to Liberals there. In Corio where Ford and Shell have closed and everyone is braced for the Alcoa closure (and also has a large tradie employment base) I also expect a big swing. I expect the ALP to hold theses seats but suffer a bigger than average swing.
But in Chisholm and Bruce there is enough of these workers/voters in the mix to tip them over. Ballarat and Bendigo I’m expecting for the ALP to hold as the major employer there is the state government, but McEwen is close enough to Victoria’s struggling manufacturing sector to also feel the backlash, hence why its undecided. These voters relied on the ALP to protect manufacturing and carbon tax they see as leading to the closure of the factory they work in.
I see Danby being trouble because his electorate is full of voters who eat quinoa to keep themselves slim but couldn’t give a damn they have pushed the price of the staple food of starving Bolivian peasants out of their reach. Fabians at Uni, their natural home is the Greens and Melbourne Ports is full of them. This type of voter will be “outraged” at Danby’s lack of support for gay marriage, etc, etc, and combined with a swing to the Liberals there’s good chance he could fall behind the Greens (who are already on 21% of the vote) against Danby’s 38%. Danby faces a battle a battle on two fronts to stay ahead of the Greens, and unlike the last two elections the swing is against him. The thing you need to remember the Liberals don’t need a swing to win this seat, they just need swing from the ALP to Greens to be enough for the Greens to outpoll the ALP, a swing to the Liberals only makes the process faster. Which is why I think this seat is undecided.
I hope that explains my thinking.
Sandbelter
Thanks. Lots of really interesting info. Bruce – muslim voters. Who would have thought. Would the same thoughts apply to Barton??. I so hope you are right about Danby. What a waste of space, the ultimate time server.
Sandbelter
Just checked, so as not to be a goose. No DLP candidates in Chisholm, & Bruce last election. So very interesting idea on how much this will influence the outcome. Do you see the DLP having as big an influence in other VIC seats???.
Where’s the right-wing equivalent of Bob Ellis to claim the Lonergan poll is a lie because “nobody over 60 uses a mobile”!!
Seriously, the Green vote does look too high in that poll, with both major parties a bit too low.
Interesting thoughts on Bruce, Sandbelter, but isn’t the Asian demographic much more significant there than the “Muslim” one?
Nielsen out now at the higher end for the Coalition 54%;
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 (-1) L/NP 54 (+1)”
And Jackman’s final prediction has the ALP losing 26 seats, http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/2013/bettingMarketExtras/individualSeats/graphs/plotMarginal.pdf
Only Newspoll to come tonight.
I do think that the pollsters will need to get their act together on mobiles, but I’m hugely sceptical of a poll that is using a basically untested methodology. If I were aggregating I’d probably just leave Lenergan out.
Peter Van Oneslen doing his usual pre-Newsoll hamming it up:
“My oh my oh my!”
Probably means it’s unchanged………
Baseball bats are out. Labor mps appear to be conceding. Coalition to have 90/95 seats. If you logically think about the last six years it is no suprise really….
MDMConnell – is it 55/45?
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