While the campaign has been fiercely fought, there hasn’t seemed to be much for myself to add in terms of blog posts on the front page.
The conversation has been continuing fiercely on the previous election thread and on each seat’s discussions. Almost 2500 comments have been posted throughout August.
Please use this thread to continue discussing the election campaign over this last weekend of the campaign.
This is a bit of a moving feast, but based on the latest round of internal and mainstream polling, I have the Coalition at 91. The increase is due to my confidence that the ALP will lose seats now in QLD.
Is Kingsford-Smith part of the 91? Thanks!
Just on that DB , WB at PB has updated his projections with the Nielson Qld numbers;
“I’ve updated BludgerTrack with the Nielsen Queensland poll, plus a little driblet of data I’ve received for Tasmania. My new method for allocating “others” preferences in Queensland is 50/50 between the aggregate result from 2010 and one which uses the 62-38 PUP and 55-45 KAP figures from Nielsen. This has caused Labor’s position in Queensland to improve by 1.1% 2PP and one seat, and also to improve by 0.2% nationally.”
The one seat to the ALP is projected as Forde.
Also, “AMR Research has published its third online poll of federal voting intention, conducted between Friday and Monday from a sample of 1101, and it has Labor at 34%, the Coalition at 44% and the Greens at 10%.”
Fairly consistent numbers in all the polls
I’m afraid I think Possum Comitatus overlooked one important variable: where were Green HTVs available? While Green HTVs are ubiquitous in the inner suburbs, they are often unknown in both outer suburban and regional areas. The two “old parties” (that is, the ones that have won 80% of the vote between them since 1910 or thereabouts) have very high rates of HTV distribution.
KB’s latest poll round up and seat betting is out, http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch-all.html
“All up these polls have knocked my aggregate out to 53.1 to Coalition”
Acermark – nope. But I’m not discounting it either.
Yappo – I think WB’s got it all wrong there. That methodology just doesn’t make sense to me. It is not possible that the LNP will only attract 38% of PUP preferences if he puts the Coalition in front of Labor in HTVs everywhere. I’m not speaking for Peter Brent, but he doesn’t appear to think so either according to his post today. From my reading, he suggested Labor could get 30% of PUP preferences if they are behind the Coalition on HTV cards (if in fact PUP HTVs are handed out).
That AMR poll translates to 53/47 based on 2010 preference distributions. It looks somewhere between 53 and 54 at the moment. Will be interested to see the final polls and Nielsen.
In some electorates, the PUP candidates have worked very hard to gain a public profile and will have people handing out HTV cards at every booth. At others, it’s very hard to get people motivated. In the Hunter, most people think Joel will romp it in, but many want to see a change, but apathy will probably rule.
Adso – there is a reasonable amount of polling for Denison (though all the recent public polling is ReachTELs) and what I know of internal polling is similar. On the polling it’s unclear whether the Liberals will still be second after preferences, but even if they are it doesn’t seem there are enough Labor votes to gift them the seat, despite Labor’s bizarre attempt to do so. Of course it is possible the polls are understating Labor’s primary (sub-20 is pretty hard to credit until you see it at the election) but if Labor’s primary is higher then the chance of the Libs being in second goes down and therefore they don’t get the preferences anyway.
It is pretty unlikely the Liberals will win. Not impossible, but they are not exactly trying all that hard.
Interesting Poll from Reachtel. PUP goes from 2.4 to 4.4, LNP goes from 46.5 to 44.2. Also KAP goes under 1%. Have we seen peak Palmer yet or will he surge? Even if he doesn’t surge, I’m pretty sure now that Glenn Lazarus will be a PUP senator.
Hmm…..Labor, LNP, Greens and Katter votes all down in that poll, while Palmer is only up 2%.
Where have all the other votes gone?
MDM – Others up as well by 1.4. I don’t think voters have been terribily impressed by the campaign in general.
Will it turn into votes on election day? Palmer will not have the bodies on the ground to man polling stations like the LNP/ALP outside of Qld. That may suppress votes to him.
Perversely, it sounds like it could be in the Coalition’s interest to supply a few warm bodies to inhabit PUP t-shirts and unenthusiastically distribute PUP HTVs.
And now for something completely different: Election Day sausage sizzles mapped!
I posted this over on Mumble’s Blog – I thought people here would appreciate it as well given the recent discussion on HTV cards.
According to Mark Kenny (article today on the SMH or The Age, I can’t remember), a decent proportion of Liberal voters in Melbourne are planning on ignoring the HTV directions and preference greens over Labor:
“Liberal voters are ignoring Tony Abbott’s request to put the Greens last on their ballot papers: as many as four in 10 in the federal seat of Melbourne planning to preference the Greens ahead of the ALP.”
The galaxy poll which found this, also found Bandt on 40% primary vote with Labor on 30%, Liberal on 26% and Others on 4%. When I crunch those numbers I get Bandt either just scraping in (with conservative preference flows to him from Others and Liberals) whilst the poll uses respondent preferences to give him 54% TPP against Labor.
You can always tell in the end where an election is being fought. Despite Rudd’s best endeavours to keep inside the marginals, now we have seen him in Tassie and Adelaide and Hindmarsh yesterday and in Bruce, Hotham and Chisholm today.
I notice that Rudd hasn’t visited Sydney this week. With so many marginals you think he would spend at least 2 days there. It asks the question is Rudd a major net liability in Sydney?
So DB, why was he in Longman a couple of days ago? Is Wyatt Roy in trouble?
Rudd’s now in Wakefield – a 10% odd margin…… Didn’t he already make some protectionist commitment to the failing car industry early in the campaign? Why go there now? Isn’t this money that would be better invested in medical research and create sustainable jobs?
In the last couple of days, Rudd’s campaigning in seats with average Labor held margins of at least 6-7% (Bass, Braddon, Lyons, Bruce, Chisholm, Hotham, Wakefield). Isn’t this heartland stuff? Is he fearing 40 odd seats?
Glen – I think the above demonstrates that he is just desperate. Rudd’s been going harder in QLD than anywhere else in this whole election campaign because it would be very embarrasing for him to lose support in his home state I would have thought. I don’t think he can find it conceivable that he could lose seats in QLD to Abbott, but the polling I’ve seen suggests this is what is going to happen.
I can’t think of an election campaign that has been more poorly operated than this one for many years. Probably 93 stands out. There is absolutely no method or means to what is going on here from the Australian Labor Party.
Nah DB, best to just give the money to mining magnates I reckon. 😉
And of course I would reject DB’s last sentence as being partisan campaigning, but more to the point, being untrue.
DB, I’d totally agree that the ALP campaign has been poor. Their messaging and communication has been all over the place – a bit like Rudd and much of their time in govt – and played right into the Coalition strategy.
That being said, when the major selling dailies are so blatantly partisan then it perhaps also makes the job harder. There also has not been sufficient scrutiny of both parties policies & costings and even you have to admit the Coalition have some liabilities on that front. However, I wouldn’t get too smug as some of your above comments appear to be, and which is most uncharacteristic of you.
There will be some surprises on Sat for all concerned regardless of ones political persuasion. It was always the Coalitions election to lose, it was just a matter of how much of a contest the ALP could make it.
Yappo – fair enough. I’ll tone it down. Sorry.
Relax everyone. Its all over as the Liberal/Nationals have it in the bag in the House of Representatives
However, I do agree with you that the ALP is obviously sandbagging to an extent. An SA seat doesn’t really seem in play that much (PB agg polling suggests no change of any seat) so why go to Wakefield but perhaps there is another reason to do with the car industry?
ABC election live has some stats on seat visits:
Rudd: Abbott
ALP 43 ALP 45
Coalition 27 Coalition 31
Green 0 Green 3
Ind 0 Ind 4
See, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-04/election-live3a-september-4/4933222
DB – Tasmania has been crook for ages and was going to be no matter what, so I wouldn’t pay much notice to his visit there. Bass and Braddon are gone, but Lyons is salvageable, so that’s probably why he was popping in.
As for the rest of the country, I think it’s fair to say the tide is going out.
My big worry is Sydney in general. Visually, Sydney looks absolutely sick for Labor. The liberals have had armies of blue shirted volunteers and blue signs absolutely everywhere – on clubs, pubs, small businesses, doctors surgeries, light poles, front yards, roundabouts, billboards, even some of the Asian businesses as well. Unlike most years they’ve had armies of people with balloons on the pre-poll stations and at shopping malls (I never even saw them around in my area in 2010). I have to give them credit, they’ve been putting a massive effort in, the best I’ve seen from them.
Mind you, Labor is putting in a herculean effort to stop it too. I’ve found when I’ve had a few minutes to talk to people they tend to come around, but a lot of people have been uninspired by the campaign itself. That’s the hardest thing to get over.
Yappo,
The costing thing is a good example of how poor Labor’s campaign has been. It had the potential to be a real negative for the Coalition, but Labor once again conveniently made themselves this issue over it. Costings problem for the Libs……Neutralised.
It’s sadly characteristic of the government since Gillard deposed Rudd….they just keep making themselves the issue instead of putting sustained pressure on the Opposition. A bit like NSW state Labor’s last term.
You can blame “partisan media” if you want. But if someone is constantly jumping up and down, waving their arms and saying “Hey guys! Over here! Watch me shoot myself in the balls once again!” that’s what people will pay attention to.
Todays ReachTEL poll has Coalition 52-48% (ALP: 35.3, LNP: 44.2, Green: 9.7, PUP: 4.4, KAP: 0.9 with Abbott ahead of Rudd 52.9-47.1.
AMR online late yest had Coalition 53%-47% (ALP 34, Coalition 44, Greens 10, Oth 12)
The interesting thing is that 4 polls have now registered 4% for PUP (Morgan, Neilsen & Essential). Morgan had them at over 8% in QLD so they have a chance for a Senate seat there (though Palmer ludicrously stated 2 seats!!)
WB goes into some analysis here of the PUP growth, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/09/03/nielsen-53-47-to-coalition-in-queensland/
I’m just wondering whether if any further 1-2% increase – ie. a late surge – to the PUP might come mainly from the Coalition side and esp in Qld? WB suggests that most of their vote has thus far come from the ALP.
Lachlan – I’m in a cab just leaving the Liberal Party launch in Lilyfield so this might not come across great. The Libs have more workers due to their State Election win in 2011. Every MP is entitled to staff and they are all doing the beat in western Sydney and Kingsford Smith. It’s really the first time that the Libs have had the same manpower as Labor in Sydney probably ever,
Just got some good news out of QLD. Although I am generally very conservative in predictions, I reckon the LNP will pick up seats in QLD.
These is quite amazing postal vote figures on the site catallaxyfiles.com
In the 2010 election the following numbers of postal votes were submitted by each party:
-Greens: 7 (0%)
-ALP: 254,678 (50.1%)
-Coalition: 242,035 (48.5%)
-Others: 2,957 (0.6%)
In this election so far (and this is unlikely to change by much with only a couple of days left):
-Greens: 1019 (0%)
-ALP: 151,516 (27.2%)
-Coalition: 399,800 (71.8%)
-Others: 4663 (0.8%).
The difference for each party between 2013 and 2010 is:
-Greens: +1012
-ALP: -103,162
-Coalition: +157,765
-Others: 1706.
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2013/09/04/guest-post-john-comnenus-has-an-electoral-wipe-out-already-occurred/
These are….
Gee those Reachtel boys and girls must be checking out all the luxury car markets after all the work Channel 7 is giving them.
Today’s poll (taken last night) has PUP still improving (4.4 to 6.1) and ALP down sharply (35.3 to 32.7) with the LNP falling slightly (44.2 to 43.6). Will PUP poll support transfer to votes? Will his preferencing to LNP be solid (around 70%)? I’m told this morning Palmer’s interview on Channel 9 was interesting stuff.
No state surprises like Victoria with its last minute swings, and I’ve been warning that Victoria has the same feel as the 1999 and 2010 Victorian state election. Today comes an opinion poll in Corangamite in the Geelong Advertiser which provides more evidence to support that view. Although it has the Liberals narrowly leading, a THIRD of voters have yet to make their mind up. This is why the Greens vote is being recorded in newspoll as 17% in Victoria, it’s actually a proxy for voter disengagement rather than actual Green support (with no offence to Green voters).
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2013/09/05/372190_news.html
In the last week Victoria has produced some of the most interesting and unpreditable contests of the campaign. The contest in Indi; the likely retention of Melbourne by the Greens; the fact that with the ALP primary vote apparently sinking Michael Danby faces the only serious three way competition of the election as he tries to keep the Greens down and the Liberals from getting too far ahead in Melbourne Ports, finally its the result itself, if the Geelong Advertiser figures are right and are replicated statewide (frankly it supports the word on the street here) the the contest is very much open down here and anything could happen.
BTW Yappo, Jewish New Year started yesterday and continues until Friday and is then followed by the Sabbath so observant Jews will have voted by now. I think you’ll find that has something to so with it as you probably not looking at comparable samples.
Bear – one would have to think that a good 60-70% of PUP preferences will flow back to the Coalition given Palmer has confirmed again today that he is placing the Coalition ahead of Labor in every one of the 150 House of Reps seats. Most people (i.e. 70%) tend to follow How to Vote cards, but the question here is will PUP have the manpower to distribute these in the polling places that count?
I personally think PUP support is a little overstated at the expense of both major parties but they could get 4% nationally.
http://palmerunited.net/ If you want to vote pup and worried we will not be able to man your polling booth – download your own here.
Every electorate is on the page, just click on your electorate to get a pdf copy of Palmer United party How to Vote card.
We happily accept protest votes too!
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-4september13
This says 53/47 to the Coalition, but I actually get 53.7% based on 2010 preferences on the basis that KAP and PUP are treated as ‘others’. Concerning feature is that the ALP primary vote here is only 32.7%, which would mean they would have to come from second im primaries in many seats to save furniture against the Coaltiion. History suggests this doesn’t happen often.
This somewhat confirms internal polling which shows Labor losing primary support more rapidly than the Coalition. I personally believe the ‘others’ are well overstated here.
There has been a clear trend over the last 2 weeks. If there has been a variation,i’ve missed it. Therefore it is reasonable to extrapolate on the basis of the trend continue , or accelerate till tomorrow. Feels like ACCELERATING INTO A LAST MINUTE “NOSE DIVE”
Seems that the ALP have a 90% chance of losing 21 seats. Then we move to the fulcrum seats where they will lose 2/3 rd’s for an outcome of a total loss of 27- 28 seats. This will be a record defeat, greater than 1996, & less seats held (in the house). That is kind of neat, & will be a good motivator for party reform
So the 21 that will go
Greenway,Lindsay,Reid,Banks,Robertson,Dobell,Parramatta,Page,Werriwa,Barton, Moreton,Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia,Blair, Deakin, Corrangimite,La Trobe,Bruce,Adelaide, Lingiari.
So the fulcrum is 2 of the 21 + Rankin Oxley, Richmond, KINGSFORD SMITH,McMAHON, EDEN MONARO,BRAND, HINDMARSH,Wakefield, Chisholm, Melbourne Ports, Bendigo McEwen. Coalition better than even to win in CAPS.Leaving the balance of another3-4 to come from other fulcrum seats.
This produces the required loss of 27-28 seats.
Libs to lose Indi & possibly Solomon
Greens to hold Melbourne
Parliment to be LIB/NAT = 102
ALP = 44
IND = 3
GRN= 1
Anyway that’s the way i see it
OOPS
How Freudian i forgot Tasmania !!! Shows how unimportant the place really is !!! Or how little i think of the place !!!. Just to Illustrate this point when Bass & Braddon are added to the 21 the coalition still end up with 21 seats as an outcome, & Lyons is added to the fulcrum seats, i only have to remove M’c Ewen for the whole prognosis to still add up
This election campaign is starting to feel a little like last year’s Queensland election where you start off knowing the government will lose, but at least it’ll be competitive, then things start to slope down and get worse and then in the final week and a half things go from bad to worse and into a nosedive.
This will take Labor quite some time to recover from.
Everyone is in a rush to call seats – I do like being provocative and suggesting people should bet their house on a “certain” call that they make – but there is still a lot of movement going on so it might be premature.
Todays ReachTEL (53-47) shows that the PUP trend is continuing and now at 6.1% which might be overstated a tad and both ALP & LNP primary dropping. Also, the ALP vote in Victoria has reportedly risen slightly and it seems to holding in SA while in Tas & NSW it is obviously falling apart. The only clear signal in Qld is the growth of PUP mainly at ALPs expense.
PB’s Bludgertrack has Coaliton at 52.5%-47.5% for a ALP loss of 12 seats (NSW -7, Vic -2, Tas -3) and add the 2 Inds to Coalition.
Clearly, the ALP cannot win but the degree of the Coalition win is still unknown. It could be that nothing changes in SA, WA, NT and only 1-2 seats in Vic (& one of those may be Indi). So it does come down to NSW as usual as to a lessor extent Qld which may swap some seats or a couple going to PUP/KAP instead of the LNP.
A lot can happen in the next 48 hrs and there will definitely be seats that surprise given that many people are still undecided (ABC suggests it is 2m voters). Let’s see what the Friday and Sat polls state.
Yappo – great to see that you have joined me in the calling of a few seats to PUP!
I spoke to two people today, one said “I just vote labor, we always have, and I don’t really know what any of the policies are anyway”. The other (an orthodontist), brought up PUP, and said, “He seems like a reasonable bloke (the local candidate), so it might shake up the sitting member a bit to get some things done around here”.
Interesting times…..
I think PUP’s support is greatly overstated and will be around 4% on election day. People are letting off steam before the election I’d suggest. But put them in front of the ballot and they are more likely to vote for one of the major parties. And on that basis, I’d suggest the Coalition will probably end up with around 45% of the primary vote and the ALP will get about 35%, in which case the LNP will be at somewhere between 53 and 54% of the 2PP.
I’ll stick with my 91 at this point unless Nielsen and Newspoll show a deterioration in the Coalition vote on Saturday.
Rockman: “Yappo – great to see that you have joined me in the calling of a few seats to PUP!”
I did nothing of the sort! “to a lessor extent Qld which may swap some seats or a couple going to PUP/KAP instead of the LNP.” How do you go from a couple to a few and all for PUP?!?!?
Basically,
I am reiterating what I have been saying all along that we may see some surprising results in Qld. PUP only has a chance at one seat Fairfax due to nearly everyone preferencing Palmer before LNP, even then it is a small chance. KAP is highly unlikely but one of the north Qld seats might throw a strange result.
People really do allow their biases to colour their reading glasses……
I think for Labor to be any faint hope at all of it being relatively close relied on Rudd doing really well on 7.30 tonight. But Leigh Sales to her credit is giving it to him with both barrels and when that happens, Rudd generally waffles. Tonight is no different.
DB – Agree, talk about waffle, A just wanted him off the TV however he is doing better on Kitchen Cabinet now
Bugger Kitchen Cabinet! I’m watching Dynamo!
Avuncular Joe didn’t doe much better with Sales either trying to explain the budget emergency.
He just looked like any other Dad on Kitchen Cabinet. Nice, genial, cuddly, kind of what the show is for I guess. Not sure that sways votes though (nor KC has the viewership to make a difference).
What he made looked pretty tasty though.
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