Day eight: latest candidate update

1. Are you going to update the spreadsheet after nominations close?

2. The AEC will post an official spreadsheet. The only thing I could add was gender data – so the answer is ‘maybe’.

3. Labor announced a candidate for Grey last week, Ben Browne. Sorry I forgot to post it.

   They have now announced their candidate for Parkes as well, 20 year-old UNSW student Brendan Byron, originally from Gulgong.
   http://www.dailyliberal.com.au/story/1697608/student-announced-as-alp-candidate-for-parkes/?cs=112

   And the WA Labor website now has the candidate for Moore listed, Jason Lawrance

   So only missing Hotham and Kennedy, and any more last-minute edits Kevin might want to make to his list.

   PUP appear to have had several changes to their lineup. There were a few previously listed candidates missing from their website last time I looked, but I wasn’t going to check them all.

4. Observer (from Day 4 thread): “I think at this election the wild card seats will be: Solomon, Boothby, Leichardt, Herbert, Bonner, Flynn, Macquarie, Greenway, Bennelong and Dunkley. I think labor will gain Brisbane, Longman, Dawson and Forde regardless of polls and probably gain Hasluck and possibly Swan. Lose Lindsay, Bass and Bradon but Bass is salvageable, lose Corangamite and Deakin.”

   That is an interesting list. I think I’d exclude Liechardt as seems too safe & not sure about Dawson. Gilmore perhaps should be included in the wild cards given the tight polling there? I suspect a non-Qld country seat will throw a surprise somewhere. In Qld we might see some interesting results in a 2-3 seats due to KAP & PUP. The high number of retiring members adds more volatility. I’d add ALP gains of Dobell & Melbourne to your list but they are obviously not a transfer from the LNP to ALP.

   The fact that the ALP have now changed 5 candidates (Benn., Dobell, Forde, Hotham & Kennedy) adds to my view that they went too early. However, as Mumble says with polling holding 52-48 (todays Newspoll) to the LNP it does provide the ALP some scope if they can hold that for the next 2 weeks in an election that was always the LNPs to lose. The question is, will boredom set in with the electorate in the next 2-3 weeks?

5. Mod Lib has summerised the betting and agg polling on PB:

   Betting aggregates
   Sportingbet $6.00
   Sportsbet $5.50
   Centrebet $6.00
   Betfair $6.60
   ….projected 15-20% chance ALP win

   ALP TPP aggregates:
   Mark the ballot 48.5%
   Bludgertrack 48.1%
   Kevin Bonham 48.6%
   Jackman (Stanford) 47.6%

   Current probability of ALP improving its vote from 2010:
   Jackman 0.0%

6. http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Findings%20PDF/2013/August/5100-Fed-Vote-August-12-2013.pdf

   The Roy Morgan multi-mode polling data (sample of nearly 4000 people) is interesting to look at. Perhaps most interesting is their comparison between voting intentions and preference flows based on the last election. When using 2010 preference flows, Roy Morgan gets numbers agreeing with other polls with Coalition ahead by about 1.5-2%. When actually asking them which one they’re going to preference higher, they get 50/50. Also note that the Morgan polls include polls of people who only own mobile phones. Also, the no-answer rate was 1% (presumably, that’s the no-answer rate of people who went through with the interview, not people who refused to take part).

   The Morgan data also suggests that we’re going to be looking at another hung parliament, based on current voting intentions.

   I’d be interested to find out whether Morgan’s data lines up with internal polling when looking at primary vote. If it does, then perhaps this truly is closer than it looks.

7. Also interesting is that Morgan’s data seems to indicate that Labor is at 50% on 2PP in Queensland, more than 5% above what pollbludger predicts.

8. Morgan also have KAP at 1% and PUP at 1%.

   Though KAP will be more influential in some key Qld seats one suspects, http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/secret-preference-deal-expected-to-be-announced-which-would-see-bob-katter8217s-australian-party-preferences-flow-to-alp/story-fnihsr9v-1226695607928

9. Yappo – nationwide, it makes sense. If you assume that the vast majority of support for KAP is in Queensland – say, 80% – then you’d expect them to get 4% on average in Queensland… probably closer to 5%, since it probably rounded down. Given that they probably won’t be getting many votes in the high-density seats, it means votes upwards of 10% in rural seats. And those numbers are probably low, too.

10. DB – Do you have any idea’s how Katter’s and Palmer’s votes are trending as we get closer to election day in Qld? It feels to me that don’t have that feverish intensity that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation had.

11. Just lost a long reply. My fault.

    If KAP preferences Labor I reckon the LNP will lose Dawson and Herbert. In Flynn I think they are safe. KAP is not polling better than 20% in any seat except obviously Kennedy.

    The seats that should poll well for PUP are Fisher, Fairfax and Wide Bay, but I can’t see PUP affecting any of these either.

12. What about PUP in Hinkler and Herbert?

    Hinkler because they’ve got Rob Messenger running and Herbert because a few thousand people are employed by Palmer up there.

13. Disagree db, Trevor is winning the ground battle in Flynn. I expect it to go. The lnp higher ups are more confident about Dawson than Flynn.

    oh, and pup will poll better in Hinkler than wide bay

14. Yes, correct on Hinkler. I can’t see Flynn going at this point. I see it the other way around. I’ll try and find out some more.

15. In the Queensland state election the polls were woefully wrong on the KAP-it will be interesting to see if their polling holds up in North Queensland, in particular electorates like Herbert.

16. So Abbott has repeated multiple times that he WOULD NOT be the leader of a minority government…

    Except, what do you call it when two distinct parties form government together? It’s the Liberal Party and the National Party, two distinct parties, and if they, together, get enough seats, they’ll form a minority government, will they not?

    Indeed, in the case of Abbott forming government, the deputy PM won’t be Julie Bishop (the deputy Liberal leader), but Warren Truss (the Nationals leader).

17. A minority government is where the party/parties in government don’t have a majority in Parliament.

    A coalition government is where more than one party is in government.

    The two aren’t necessarily the same.

    Labor was a minority because the Greens and independents, while they supported the government with confidence and supply, weren’t bound to the same political agenda and didn’t take ministries.

    The Liberals would be a minority government if they formed the government and the Nationals sat on the crossbenches.

18. So Labor could get around the issue by declaring that they would not form a Minority government with the Greens, and then offer the Greens a ministry after the election?

19. I think it’s more likely they would just drop their promise to not form a minority government.

20. Ok, lets look at a strange outcome (bear with me).
    KAT & PUP win some seats from the two major parties. Some because the local candidate is well known, others because the preferences just get them over the line (this is a hypothetical).
    So let say, Lib/Nat have 70 seats, Labour/greens have 50 seats, and the other 30 are left to KAT/PUP/Ind.

    So now, Mr Abbot will sit on the sidelines, and let the Labour/Greens rule, because he has said, he will not make deals?

    I think people are underestimating the feelings in the electorates towards are two parties. Last night, while sitting in a hospital waiting room for 4 hours, EVERYBODY I spoke to said the same sort of thing – “we are sick of them both”, we need a change. Down in NSW, Palmer has slightly more exposure than Katter,

    I am looking forward to hearing which way the preferences will be flowing.

21. Rockman, there’s a difference between hypothetical and pie-in-the-sky. There’s no way that 30 seats go to independents, PUP, and KAP.

    The question is, if the Coalition gets 74 seats and Labor + Greens get 70, will he really let Labor form a minority government with the six independents and KAP/PUP, rather than make a deal with two of them? It’s just not going to happen.

22. Thanks Glen, we can discuss numbers, but the question is really, will Tony turn down the chance to rule? What if the two KAT/PUP people leave their party and join Tony? It would give these two a huge bargaining chip to improve their electorate.

    Its going to be as interesting as the last season of Breaking Bad 🙂

23. Glen – I really don’t think Abbott will agree to form a minority government if he doesn’t have 75 given what has happened in this parliament. He’d much prefer another election (and he’d indicate that to the GG) and I’m sure in that case, he’d win a second vote convincingly. Let’s assume LNP had 75 Abbott probably try then for an Independent speaker if possible to ensure he had the numbers on the floor. But I think it is really hypothetical. It’s still early days, but I reckon the Coalition will go close to 85 seats. Obviously, I reserve judgment on that.

    There has been very little since Rudd has been back to suggest Labor can win the election and 2 and half years of polls which have indicated Labor would lose convincingly.

    I can guarantee an Abbott Government will not go full term. I would not be surprised at all to find us back at the polls within 18 months (as Hawke did) in an attempt to obtain a less hostile Senate and a host of policies as an incumbent to mandate change such as increasing the GST, which is so desperately needed for the future of our economic growth.

24. DB – I’m not convinced that the people would be very happy if Abbott forced them back to the polls because he wasn’t willing to work with other parties. I think that, in that situation, Labor would end up winning a majority.

    And I’ll be honest, I’m a lot more optimistic of Labor’s chances than you are. Perhaps partly because I favour the left politically, partly because I like to think that Australians can see Abbott for what he really is (hence why I’d vote for Turnbull, but not Abbott), and partly because of the Morgan Polls that indicate that voter-allocated preferences don’t actually favour the Coalition.

    Also, the only way that an election in 18 months would result in a less hostile senate is if it were a double-dissolution election. This is because the next senate term doesn’t start for more than 3 years (after the one that starts next year, which the election in September applies to), and so it would only be a house election. The earliest that an election including the Senate can occur after this election is July 1st 2016, except in case of double dissolution.

25. DB
    It isn’t often that i have something to vehemently disagree with you over. In fact usually i so completely agree, that it is just repetitive to comment.
    However the GST is 1 area we differ on. The federal govt has no revenue problem whatsoever ( spending is a different story….) The states are already getting around 6% annual growth in gst receipts. There are plenty of revenue options available to them.
    Also the feds could get out of state areas like education, & health, & turn over the revenue. 4 state govts would be better than 8 state, & territory .
    Making domestic employment, & services tax deductible, such as in most Euro nations would wallop the black economy, & boost employment.
    Just raising taxes is the softest, of weak options.
    Make me treasurer, & I’ll have income tax at NZ levels without raising the GST (TO 15%) ,& PAY ALL the commonwealth debt (500 billion) back in less than 10 years. Promise !!!.

26. Why aren’t you standing winediamond?

27. I think that we are getting way ahead of ourselves here. Assuming the LNP can form govt we’d have to see the make up of the Senate. Then, who knows what the 1 st year could bring. If it brings austerity measures, then China & the world economy slows and Australia goes into a recession for the 1st time in nearly 25 years, then discussing early elections would be ludicrous.

    Anyway, RockMan you are being ludicrous with your seat split there. Why not use figures that are more realistic to illustrate your point?

    For example, let’s be generous & say that ALP pick up 2 in WA, lose 1 in SA, lose 2 in Tas, lose 3 in Vic but gain 2 (-1), lose 3 in NSW but gain 1 (-2), gain 5 in Qld but lose 2 (+3).
    That would be a net loss of 1.

    LNP gains the 2 ex Ind seats.

    Further, let’s say that KAP win Kennedy & Herbert, an independent wins Indi, Palmer wins Fairfax and Wilkie keeps Denison. (That would be – 3 for the LNP)

    Thus,
    ALP would have 71,
    LNP 73 &
    KAP/PUP/IND 6
    (I trust that my math is correct….but you get the idea).

    Now, in such circumstances is the LNP really not going to attempt to form govt with the support of 3 of the 6 of KAP/PUP/IND?

    After the 2010 negotiations, there is no way that they will just sit on the sidelines and allow the ALP to form a working majority just because Abbott made a promise that he would not have a minority govt! The core LNP member & voters would riot would they not?

    The promise and idea is completely fanciful! Politics is politics, it it ultimately a numbers game!

28. Pollster
    I am too honest to be a pollie !!. Common sense, & a head for business, & finance disqualify me too !!!. Would need to be a lawyer, teacher, or ex trade union official !!!

29. Perhaps the on the ground campaigning offers more insight as to why the ALP is not doing as well in Qld as first though?
    “Qld blunders for ALP? Seems there are a few pre-election hiccups for the ALP in the must-win state of Queensland … we’ve heard that “a certain rising star organiser got a please explain as to how her campaign went so awry”, and that Peter Freeleagus, the Capricornia candidate, missed a deadline to respond to a media request for an election debate so was a no-show. And did a certain candidate draw blanks when asked about the Building the Education Revolution, setting tongues wagging among powerful party insiders about whether the best people have been preselected?”
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/08/14/tips-and-rumours-943/

30. On the whole minority government promise, this is a great read on point which highlights that basically such promises “are unrealistic” or in my blunt words….. mean nothing;

    “A minority government can exist and serve a full term as long as it is capable of passing its budget and is not the subject of a vote of no confidence. It is usually in the interests of whoever holds the balance of power to ensure that the parliament runs for its full term.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-14/twomey—the-hung-parliament-dilemma/4886988

31. Are the Democrats standing?

    We desperately need a progressive party – whilst PUP and Katter will be on the rightt of the LNP and the Greens to the left of the ALP. WE NEED SOMEONE GONG FORWARD.

    However, which of the two Democrat factions ( if any) will stand?? And if so- will they preference each other?

32. Winediamod, unfortunately everything you say is pretty much true!

33. Winediamond, that’s the problem, too many lawyers, teachers and union officials. Instead of worrying about gender balance, we should fight for vision balance. Push for more engineers and scientists. People who think and plan as a way of life.
    And before you ask, yes I am both. And I was standing (for Lyne), but realised that the lifestyle commitment was too much for my family. Plus, who would want the pay drop.

34. Interesting comment Rockman. People squeal about pay rises for politicians but the reality is for most of the talented people in society with the work ethic that have the real potential to be a Cabinet Minister devising policy and administering legislation and departments, they can make more in the private sector. Maybe we could have a bonus scheme linked to GDP and some other economic/social indicators like Singapore. The result? Lecherous union officials and bored teachers/lawyers dominating the Parliament.

35. After watching the One Nation candidate crash and burn in the interview, I wonder if we should have an interview and intellect check on all candidates. You wouldn’t let somebody elected by the public to run BHP. But we allow anybody to stand for public office ( our local government has been a disaster, run by retired teachers and nurses, not people that are experienced running a business with 100 staff and a budget over $40M, changing direction to make the loudest local happy).

36. Rockman, & AC
    Actually it isn’t the money. It is the torture, debilitation, & repetition of having to deal with the same challenges over, & over. This scenario sends any thinking person insane. Everyone needs to feel they make a difference. In our system as it is everything is too slow, & laborious. There is simply no (way to) cut through.

37. Let’s be honest, so long as government is elected by popularity contest, it’s going to have this problem.

    In theory, something more like how businesses work would make more sense – the people of Australia, as shareholders, select from the candidates based solely on their resume (and perhaps an interview process). We could put in place a requirement that candidates may put forward general plans for the country, but cannot put forward specifics that could in any way be interpreted as buying votes.

    But it’s not going to happen, so long as the people who make the laws regarding elections are the ones chosen by those laws. So we have to do what we can with what we have.

38. Glen
    It comes back to horses for courses. IF the fed govt was a lazzae fair style, confined to Defence, Trade, Tax, & Law. State govts more progressive, & focused on service delivery. No business would have such a confused structure of operations. Consequently different people would do different jobs. Pretty simple really

39. winediamond, you don’t inspire a whole lot of trust in your opinion when you don’t even know how to spell “laissez-faire”.

    Anyway, my personal opinion is that we have too much duplication of effort in this country – I don’t see why we can’t have federal, state, and local governments all part of a single structure. This probably isn’t the place to get into it, so I won’t go into detail, but I actually think we should drop the separate local government system entirely, and have our federal and state representatives simultaneously form a kind of local council as part of their jobs (note: ministers, etc, would work more like in America with their Secretaries, chosen from the public by parliament for their expertise, rather than chosen from amongst members of parliament).

    It’s worth noting that I also think that we should have more states, distributed to better balance the populations amongst them, and that groups of state electorates should be contained within the boundaries of a federal electorate. In other words, there’s a lot more to my idea than I’m writing here. As I said, it’s not the place for that sort of discussion, so I’ll leave it there.

40. A small sample Morgan poll released yesterday had it 57/43 to the Coalition with a primary of 52%. Obviously this is outside the other polls but could be an early indicator of a surge for the LNP?

41. A nationwide Coalition primary of 52% stretches the limits of credulity.

42. Yeah 57-43 seems far too strong for LNP – That’s getting into Gillard territory.

    This one must be an outlier, but it certainly shows that Labor’s surge under Kevin Rudd is receding.

43. DB – I find Morgan poll results and methodology jump around the most of any regular national polling organisation. For instance his poll results range in the last month have ranged 55/45 (ALP/LNP – Multi-Mode) to 43/57 (ALP/LNP – Phone). If Newspoll and Neilsen confirm this then you will have confirmation. Do you know if internal polling is mirroring this?

44. Bear – certainly not. But I am hopeful of a 53/47 result which would give the Coalition around 85 seats. I’m pretty confident with the marginals at the moment. I’d suggest the betting odds in totality (instead of every specific seat) are much right.

45. that last bit should be “pretty much right”

46. My preference is to follow the Bludgertrack Poll that takes account of the major polls, deals with house effects and provides a more plausible trend figure. Suggests Opposition around 80 seats, ALP 67, others 3

47. That Morgan poll DB was a small sample of 549 which would have a higher MOE than other polls. I think that KB described it on PB as “from outer space” but let’s wait and see.

48. Margin of Error isn’t the issue at play. People often forget that MoE is only a confidence interval – the standard MoE numbers are a confidence interval of 95%, meaning that about one in twenty polls will be outside of that range.

    Given the numbers that happened, I’d say that it’s a severe outlier. It may also have some systematic issues, but without knowing the details, we can’t be sure.

49. The Morgan phone poll is obviously a rogue. It’s reported TPP is bad enough, but it is actually 59/41 if you calculate it by 2010 preference flows. In other words, nothing to see here.

50. *”Its reported poll”, that is.

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