Day one: Labor starts behind

By
Ben Raue
-
24

After yesterday’s election call we saw two new national polls emerge from Newspoll and Reachtel.

Both had the Coalition on 52% two-party-preferred and Labor on 48%, which would translate into a slim victory for the Coalition. It certainly indicates a close race. The poll is a shift of 1% towards the Coalition compared to the last Reachtel poll, and consistent with the last Newspoll.

Most of the polling information is consistent with what we’ve seen, however Kevin Rudd has suffered a drop in his personal ratings. In the last July Newspoll, Rudd’s personal approval ratings were 42% approval and 41% disapproval – these have now turned around dramatically to 47% disapproval and 38% approval.

Reachtel doesn’t ask the same question, but saw the proportion preferring Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister dropping from 52.4% to 49.1%. Rudd also suffered a three-point drop in preferred PM in Newspoll.

Interestingly there was no similar shift in Abbott’s personal ratings.

As for this website, throughout this week the last seven ‘seats of the day’ will be rolled out. I have started a major update of candidates – I estimate between names posted in the comments feeds and other lists I have well over 100 extra candidates to add to the list. I hope to finish this tomorrow.

I’ll then be looking to go through and revamp the guide, with updated political assessments based on the latest political situation. Most electorates’ assessments were based on the previous scenario where Julia Gillard was expected to lose badly to Tony Abbott. These have now become redundant.

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24 COMMENTS

  1. Probably not unexpected as the ‘smart money’ was always on a KRudd honeymoon period followed by a fall in Newspoll as the electorate recalled just why his popularity fell previously.

    Whilst the main game is with the two major parties the really fascinating contest will be with the minor parties and how they fare in the Senate. I suspect that there is a desire for a ‘non aligned’ voice in the lower house and the Senate such as the Australian Democrats at the expense of the ideologically ‘left’ leaning Greens.

    It’s going to be an engaging campaign!

  2. Opps, perhaps Bill Shorten and others made the wrong call again. With the removal of the local government referendum from this election is shows that Rudd is all over the place once again just like when he was PM the first time

  3. Adrian, what, exactly, are you talking about, this time? Rudd said, like one or two days after reclaiming the leadership, that he had reservations with the local government referendum, not because he didn’t think it should happen, but because it hadn’t been given enough time for a proper campaign. Labor pretty much immediately flagged the idea of holding the election earlier so that they could delay the referendum, and give it the attention it deserved.

  4. Meanwhile, it has been the Coalition who have been all over the place, giving it full bipartisan support one day (to the point of explicitly voting for it), and then suddenly going “we’re against the obvious power grab” the next day. Meanwhile, a number of prominent Coalition members, including Barnaby Joyce, are still outspoken in support of the referendum.

  5. Glen – I was talking about the opion poll swing to the Coalition – read the article. I also commented on the last minute referendum backflip that shows that Rudd is only concerned with himself.

  6. The discussion on ABC News24 today, forecast that at least 15% of the vote will go the Palmer United Party. As preferences have not been decided, you cannot forecast what the election will bring, given the closeness of the two traditional parties. When is the media going to talk about the influence that the PUP and Katter’s Party will have on the election result. Its no longer a two horse race.

  8. Simon, whilst I can’t image PUP and Katter gaining 15% of the vote given they’re somewhat radicalised in their platforms, I do however agree that the ‘minor’ parties will be far more influential in the outcome and the formation of policy thereafter.

  9. I cannot publish links to polling – most polling questions only give the option of a two party system. Third party polling is showing many people are looking for an alternative to the two main parties.
    I do not think you can compare the policies of Katter and Palmer. I recommend people read through the policies and party documentation, before they call policies radical.
    It will be an interesting 5 weeks – no matter what the outcome.

    Disclosure – I am a paid up member of the PUP.

  12. I wonder if Simon might not have misunderstood what was being said. I could see them saying that 15% of voters are “considering” voting PUP – that is, voters who haven’t completely dismissed the idea. About a third of those actually choosing to vote for PUP seems reasonable, in my view.

  13. The last few ReachTEL polls have registered between 1.7 and 2.0% for PUP and between 1.1 and 3.2% for KAP. I can only guess that Simon misunderstood and the panel were talking about a particular seat or group of seats. Otherwise that is wild speculation not worthy of more media attention.

  14. No, no, no – Mr Palmer said 89% voters will go for him on the Sunshine Coast because a newspaper poll had 89% support for his dinosaur park.

  15. Seriously though Palmer will get a solid 4 to 5% throughout Queensland. Some seats a little lower (North Queensland where Katter will hurt their chances of getting the protest vote) and a couple higher (Fairfax, Fisher and Hinkler). They can’t win seats though. Preferences will be interesting.

    Worth noting Katter is preferencing seat by seat – watch closely who he chooses in Queensland regional seats.

  16. There are quite a few polls floating around where voters are asked if they would consider voting for such-and-such major party, and some high proportion of them say yes, and this is supposed to show a high level of support. Diehard supporters of those parties then say they are “polling” X%. Of course any number of voters might consider voting for a party – especially, it’s hard to dismiss that you’d consider voting for a party you’ve not heard of before – but that doesn’t mean they will actually do it.

    I’ve not seen PUP above about 2% in anything credible nationally and KAP seems to be doing even worse. But KAP voters may be a bit difficult to poll.

  17. Odds have come in from circa $1.30 to $1.24 for the coalition to win the election since mid last week. At the height of the “Rudd honey moon” they were circa $1.45.
    Labor clearly behind.

    Liberals out in force in Sydney CBD this morning handing out phamplets at train stations etc. Never seen this activity before.

    On the Federal election open thread, I predicted 28 September as the election date – clearly wrong, but are more confident in my prediction of 80-85 LNP, 65-70 for Lab and Katter and Wilkie. This will not be an election where minor parties make head way.

    Other than an interest in betting odds to predict election and seat races I don’t have much of an interest in gambling. That said, one of the on-line bookies is offering $1.03 for the coalition not to control the senate after the election. This seems completely miss priced. Given the coalition needs to win 23 senate seats to control the senate (which means the coalition winning 4 senators in 3 states – ain’t going to happen ever let alone at a 52:48 tpp election result) I reckon $1.03 is the best bet of the election.

  18. …the previous scenario where Julia Gillard was expected to lose badly to Kevin Rudd

    Was that the scenario where Rudd defected to lead the Liberal party? I must have missed that one 😉

  20. 67% of people know that statistics and surveys are unreliable! So let us not get to hung up about day one of the official campaign. What I was trying to put out there – there is more than the two parties standing candidates in this election (PUP about 150). Numbers are hard to predict, and yes, the biggest issue will be preferences. A local Nationals organiser was upset about PUP, because he thought it would reduce the national vote. But then other areas have the labor guy complaining. People just don’t like competition.

    But at least this site presents ideas and comments without personal insults – playing the ball and not the man. Bring it on!

  21. Both parties presently running around trying to secure preferences of minor parties, particularly KAP and PUP. I’ll take a stab and say that PUP will preference Coalition in some seats and have split tickets in others. I think KAP may just go with split tickets.

    Heavy Liberal presence in Kingsford-Smith. Polling showing a possible Lib gain.

  23. I don’t know where to put this, but I have a theory about this morning’s development. I think Beattie may have been put in as a tactical move. Rudd isn’t gaining momentum in western Sydney and needs to focus on there and Victoria to stop them losing seats and maybe even help picking some up.

    I think Beattie has been brought in to campaign in Queensland to enable Rudd to focus on NSW.

    Just a theory…

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