Julia Gillard has called a caucus meeting at 7pm for a leadership spill, and has said that if she loses she will leave politics.
I don’t have anything particularly to say at this point, so consider this an open thread to discuss the events of this evening.
Julia, best of luck this evening – you will need it. However, if Rudd does win, it will make no difference, the ALP is “gone” whenever the election is held. Enjoy retirement, Julia and take Rudd with you and do us all a favour! Unfortunately, it seems Mr Abbott will end up PM in any case – what’s worse?? No hope I’m afraid. Liberal & Labor (& Greens for that matter) – you will NEVER get my vote again!
That’s a sad capitulation to the baying hounds of the MSM.
Julia Gillard insists that if she loses the Ballot tonight, she will not contest the election for her seat when it is held. MARK MY WORDS, she will try and play the gender card again and say she was beaten because she is a woman!
Peter Allan (and everyone else disillusioned with Government) – Take heart – The is a FAIR DINKUM Party out there that will always have Australia’s best interests at heart and will continually and wholeheartedly work for all Australians NOT the powerful overseas investors that Liberal AND Labor serve – Katter’s Australian Party will ALWAYS put Australia FIRST in everything! Check us out at http://www.ausparty.org.au Vote 1 KAP
We know for sure there will be another preselection meeting now that both Gillard and Rudd have promised to retire if they lose.
What a great day for the country.
We are rid of the worst ever
1/ PM
2/ Treasurer
3/ Minister (Conroy)
More to come. Can hardly wait!!!!.
All I have to say is that we must be the laughing stock of the world after this ‘performance’
I think you’ll find the world doesn’t care about domestic personality politics. What it does care about is Australia’s economic situation which, despite the pithy, illiterate bleating of the opposition and their cheerleaders in the press, is the absolute envy of the world. Of course, it wouldn’t be had we followed the Libs economic proposals through the GFC.
Gonski, NDIS, carbon pricing, marine park network, fair paid parental leave, increasing the tax free threshold: I suspect history will judge Gillard well.
Of course Abbott will try to torch all of that, but history will judge him too.
Shirl in syd
Don’t worry. Some of it is over,the rest will follow soon.
1/2 Cabinet walks, IQ of Cabinet doubles – Go figure.
worst outcome for abbott. Only reason libs were infront in polls was the hatred for Gillard was stronger then that for Abbott. That will now reverse and greater attention on Abbott which will put people off voting for him
Absolutely right there Observer, all the most unpopular members of the government (Gillard, Swan, Emerson, Conroy) are gone. We need to revisit every seat to reassess the impact of this change. In Queensland, Western Sydney, Tasmania and WA, Labor will probably do better (although there will still be a swing against Labor at least in Tasmania). I’m not sure about the impact on Vic and SA. I thought they were particularly strong for Labor in 2010 due to being Gillards home states, but there was already a very large swing on in both states.
Interesting times ahead.
Absolutely just having a quick think now in
NSW- Richmond and Page are certain for labor now, i think at risk is Greenway, Dobel, Lindsay im optimistic about Reid and Banks will probably swing but Rudd is most popular in south west. Also will be interesting to see what happens in areas with a large asian community such as Bennelong where Rudd was a start and Gilmore where the Lib is retiring and was very popular with a good quality ALP candidate
QLD- All seats could be retained with this being a state where labor will seek to gain seats such as Brisbane, Bonner, Longman and Forde also Chris Trevor will be rewarded for his support of Rudd in Flynn and KAP may even preference Rudd in crucial regional seats such as Dawson and Capricornia
VIC- Possibly Deakin and Corangamite in danger, I think on the pendulum the marginal seats in the blue collumn are just too difficult with the exception of Dunkley
SA- Will be interesting, I think either there will be a swing against labor but not large enough to cause any seats to fall OR swings all over the place that could see Adelaide become marginal labor and Boothby possibly a gain although would be difficult
WA- Not much shift at all, should see the 3 retain with Hasluck in sight but will be a difficult one
TAS- WIll probably still swing but wont see Franklin or Lyons go, Braddon will come down to the wire, possibly. And will be interesting to see what happens in Denison
Territories- ACT no change but NT will be interesting, NT ALP is doing well in the Solomon parts but might not be doing well in the Lingiari parts, also will be interesting to see what Snowdon does.
This is based on the 50/50 poll if Rudd was leader, would change if poll trend upwards or downwards based on that poll
I think we are getting way ahead of ourselves. This is the first time anything on this scale has happened. The fact is I really don’t know how this is going to play out. Also I would like that 50/50 poll reconfirmed in an actual poll before we start revisiting these seats.
I understand that Pzsilos but Rudd has a sway with the electorate that neither leaders had, they were both unpopular the only reason coalition was infront was because people hated gillard more. that will reverse very soon now and therefore 50/50 is believable. Labor actually has policy and detail something that abbott and co lack and that will probably cause them great troubles now having to list new policy in such a short ammount of time. Its not inconceivable that labor can win therefore
Observer
Go back to 2010, & try to remember why Rudd was sacked in the first place. Then remember this is still the same govt . Rudd can go after Abbott as much as he likes (& i think he’ll try), but he’ll not get much response. Rudd will end up looking desperate.
Observer your intense optimism is simply mindless and delusional. We do not know what the outcome of today’s events will be yet.
Will Rudd Pay his staff overtime?
Will Rudd treat public holidays as holidays for his staff?
Will he work to the principle of 8 Hours work, 8 Hours play, 8 HOurs sleep” and probably more importtanty will his managerialism reduve the wages of employees to 8 bob a day.
The ALP have in electing Rudd have proven that they are no longer a Labour Party.
It is amazing that it is TRade Unions who have once again selected a leader based on maximising ALP Parliamentary numbers rather than maximuising working conditions for the Australian Worker.
Julia Gillard’s policies were wrong but I never thought that she was un principled. I think Rudd’s character is best described in Mark Latham’s Autobiography.
This can be resolved by journalists who used stolen documents to write stories. All they have to do is come out and state that Kevin Rudd was not the source of these stolen documents. This is not revealing their source. Of course we know they will not. Why is this so?
Kevin Rudd deserves the same loyalty that he has given to every leader he served under.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
If people want to complain about the longest dummy-spit in Australian Political History, they need not look any further than the 3 years that Kevin Rudd has been continually under-mining Gillard. We have already seen an immediate drop-off with Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson and Steve Conroy resigning and a prediction that Peter Garrett and Jenny Macklin will follow suit as well.
But just remember as well that he is only the Labor Leader at this point. He hasn’t been to the GG to commission a government and with the numbers currently where they are, he cannot be the presumptive prime minister. So let’s look at that permutation.
In order for him to demonstrate that he has the numbers, he requires 5 of the 7 independents to support him. We have already had confirmation that Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott will not support him. That is two gone, meaning he needs the last 5 independents to support him. I am assuming that Adam Bandt and Craig Thompson will support him, leaving Andrew Wilkie, Peter Slipper and Bob Katter. Katter has already confirmed he would support Rudd so you are now down to:
*Peter Slipper
*Andrew Wilkie
For Rudd to form government, he needs the support of both these two in the end. Now Slipper, I imagine, will probably support a fellow Queenslander so Wilkie’s support becomes even more critical. If Rudd fails in the vote of confidence, then the next step will be to either commission Tony Abbott and test the numbers with him or the GG will dissolve parliament today and we are off to an election in 63 days.
From what I’ve heard, Abbott won’t put up a motion of no-confidence because he wouldn’t win it.
Wilkie has said that he’ll back Rudd.
Morgan poll was 49.5/50.5. We’ll have to wait and see what the other polling has. It’s possible that it may just be game on again.
I think you all have a lot of very valid points. I personally can’t stand Rudd. I find him arrogant and condescending. I much preferred Gillard because at least she had conviction about something other than her own importance.
That said, while most of what you all (Winediamond, AndrewJackson, Hawkeye) have said is true, it can’t be denied that Rudd is popular amongst the public – Rightly or wrongly.
So it’s ridiculous to say that all of those negatives will change people’s opinions of him, because they won’t. They haven’t for the past three years. I just wish both parties would get down to actually contesting this election based on policies and principles rather than personalities.
Macca Bne
As Richo says ” the mob will always work you out”. Rudd will be exposed, & quickly. Best he gets to “zip” to the polls 3rd Aug, or asap.
The way i see it Julia was on track to lead the ALP to a 30 – 35 seat (held) wipeout.
My guess gut feel is that Rudd could get just over 55 seats were the election held tomorrow. So the salient question is how much the mob mark him down between now , & the “big day”!!!
Instinctively the number 2, two jumps to mind. 2 (seats) per week?? 2 from now, or 2 from 3/ 8/2013 ???. May have to meditate on this !!!
Putting numbers on it (the outcome) helps to put everything in it’s proper perspective. I’ll be interested to hear from anyone else following that kind of equation.
My gut feel is about 11 seats lost if the election was held today. Which is circa 60 for Lab. Not sure which way it will go but last and only time “the mob” voted for Kevin 07 they liked him a lot. Kev’s good in the media and will be able to match Tony. And people will listen because if they had truly made up their mind to go against labor there would be no “bounce” as reported in today’s SMS newspoll. Further, the main reason Kev was shot in 10 was because of the mining and carbon taxes – he does not have the big miners advertising against him now. He can also blame all existing issues as Julia’s errors and allude to having a plan to fix them. The fact that he may/does not have a plan is irrelevant in a 2 to 3 month period. Finally, a lot of people still seem to have reservations about Tony Abbott which will potentially deaden the liberal party ads that will quote Labor people bagging Kevin.
The election will be closer than would otherwise be expected and if the coalition stuffs up there could be a surprise not seen since 1993. Notwithstanding the above, I still expect the Coalition to win. 60 seats to Labor means a 25-30 seat majority for the coalition. The coalition is also starting 2 seats up due to New England and Lyne.
Pollster
Interesting that we are within 5 seats of each other, as of today.
As Keating inquired “Can a souffle rise twice !!! ???”.
The quote is apt in response to your theory that Rudd can escape scrutiny by maintaining allusions of solutions to the big issues. It worked in 2007, but the mob will expect more than platitudes this time. “Fool me once , shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me”.
This idea that labor can target Abbott just doesn’t cut it. They have done it all in the last 4 years. FACTS
1/ He is still there
2/ he has crucified both Rudd, & Julia
3/His popularity is increasing
4/ His leadership has been sucCessful
Having said all of that i will be voting KAP. no change
Winediamond I think you will be sorely dissapointed on election day. A morgan poll today suggests that Coalition are on 50.5 2PP. This means they will still be unable to gain a majority. Yes the poll is very sudden but, the recent polling has only been favourable to the coalition because people were so put off Julia Gillard, the coalition hasn’t done anything to earn the 57 2PP lead and there only reason they’ve campaigned on, the carbon tax, is now favoured by most voters. The fact is people will be critical of Abbott more now, the electorate is familiar with Rudd, they’ll listen, hes a great communicator and a great campaigner. In regards to ur 4 points
1/ Yes he is still there because he represents the more conservative views of the liberals as opposed to Turnbull who represents a slightly more progressive liberal party
2/ The powerbrokers of the ALP crucified Gillard when they put her in, it was too soon and as for Rudd, he wasn’t a faction man so couldn’t be influenced or rewarding them.
3/ His popularity has increased because of voters becoming more disatisfied and locking in their vote between gillard and abbott. Now with a popular leader for the first time abbott will be unpopular by quite a significant margin and will see the liberal vote reflect that.
4/ Rudd won convincingly with 57 votes with Gillard being an absolute party player in resigning along with a number of cabinet supporters. Abbott won his leadership by one vote (and on the day someone made an informal vote). Also in months, he has caved in to scrapping initiatives like his baby bonus.
Observer
Election day predictions have not changed. Still the same govt as the last 6 long years. Rudd is a lousy communicator. He couldn’t sell heaters to eskimos, to use the famous Sam Chisholm quote. i’m an old salesman, so believe me i know.
as for your other assertions
1/ NO he is still there because he is SUCCESSFUL. FYI Turnbull is more conservative than Abbott on most policy. i know him.
2/NO Gillard was appointed with enormous goodwill, & destroyed her own credibility,position, & authority (if she ever had any) As for Rudd he had already been fatally exposed by Abbott.
3/ We will see. Even if Abbott proves to be as (intractably) unpopular as you imagine does that mean people will not vote for his party??. The public have historically voted for plenty of leaders they are not much fond of.
4/Irrelevant. Party votes are internal, & are meaningless outside the party room.
The baby bonus is nothing more than burley, a distraction
Winediamond a heaters salesman would never get the reception he has in electorates, people are interested in Rudd and he is someone who is a great communicator, his problem was he wasn’t selling on achievments, he was aiming for selling the future which was frustrating as labor had a lot to be proud of.
1/ When Turnbull was leader there was a moderate frontbench, now with abbott he has your old dud conservatives like Bronny and Andrews, he is a terrible communicator and speaker and is not successful, his party just wouldn’t be able to sell the idea of dumping him when they are ahead in the polls
2/ In politics you never reject promotion, it only comes around once, Gillard would be dead in the water if she didn’t accpet to be PM, she was approached, Rudd was someone who made his own mistakes backtracking and moving to forward , not caused by abbott as abbott got destroyed in parliamentary debate (still does)
3/ If your looking to be PM you have to be someone people want to listen, thats not abbott, he has said nothing all term, Rudd said more in his speech last night then abbott has in the parliamentary term, Rudd is a familiar voice they will not elect an unpopular leader they don’t like abbott at all.
4/ No it is relevant because it indicates internal support, which inddicates leadership, when gillard won 70 votes leadership Qs were dead, leadership in the liberals will resurface especially if Rudd takes off, the baby bonus was an indicator of how abbott has no control or authority in the party room, a sign of things to come
Observer,
Everyone has predicted that if Rudd got in, there would be a rise, but most people believe that is a temporary bump. Incidentally, 50.5/49.5% 2PP is based on responses, not the standard TPP based on the flow of preferences at the last election. On that measure, it is 51/49, a 4.5 point bump, and still enough for the Coalition to win government, even ignoring the fact that Labor can be expected to fade at least part of the way back by the end of 4 to 6 weeks.
It is sad just how deluded you are. Just to pick one of your arguments, you say that Rudd’s 57 votes near the end of this Parliament from MPs desperately afraid of losing their jobs is somehow relevantly compared to Abbott winning by one vote almost four years ago. You think somehow this has something to do with how successful Abbott’s leadership has been. That is a complete nonsense.
Observer
Rudd’s reception is celebrity. To quote one of his peers “his support is a mile wide, & an inch deep” You wat to buy it= go for it.
1/ your view of the lib frontbench is myopic
2/ slipperery. i responded directly to your assertions, & you have just changed the subject.
3 already answered
4/ ditto
Lucky for major parties ur not an organiser RichR. When Rudd was replaced he was ahead 52/48, mirroring the 2007 result, Abbott never caused Rudd any danger in polling he only cut down the ridiculously high polling like 58/42. Gillard unfortunately didn’t appeal to the old fashioned labor voters of western sydney, she didn’t appeal to Rudd’s QLD. This lift has been caused by him revealing ver little, he is a great campaigner, even better communicator. The lib attack is weak considering that everyone is happy to have Rudd back. Rudd has the chance now to change mistakes and give a fresh look that he did in 07 which received an outstanding result. Its sad that you don’t understand RichR that people disliked both Gillard AND Abbott and now pressure is on for Abbott now that he is against a leader people like. 57: It shows that the party is fully united no leadership issue anymore, you can’t tell me the same for the liberals because it is so clear abbott doesn’t enjoy alot of support internally. Maybe RichR you should talk to voters to gain an understanding of the electorate
A change is as good as…
What is it that is driving the resurgence of Labor? What resurgence I hear you ask? I am amazed at the hype that is being projected in the media and from Labor Ministers that this is a turn around a ‘New’ Labor a revitalised team — The Messiah has returned to save us!
What I hear in the Electorate is that everyone knows that this is the same ol’ same ol’. Dumping again an unpopular PM in favour of a slightly more popular one seems to be the modern political means of somehow convincing the electorate that we should be forgiven for the past, let’s concentrate on the future and full steam ahead!
I don’t buy it and no-one I talk to does either! If the ‘new’ PM felt ANY real ‘touch of the bush’, (as he puts it) he would immediately implement the emergency tariffs on imported fruit and vegetables and save our dying agriculture sector in particular the suppliers to SPCA, he would do something to put in place protections for our car industry and ailing manufacturing sector.
Every day I pick up the newspaper and read of more jobs gone, a business closed or jobs moved off shore.
Tony Abbott and his cronies aren’t likely to fix things either. The last big ticket item on the Liberal Party’s agenda for Australia, under John Howard was the deregulation of the labour market – Work Choices. Australia saw red and rightfully kicked him out! Tony Abbott is just wanting to do it again.
However, why don’t we petition our Parliamentarians to remove the other deregulations from society that are making life hell. In the last twenty years we have seen all the essential services once in the public’s hands, sold off to multinational corporations – we get ripped off with essential services like power, water and gas, and just put up with it.
Sorry, I’m not going to any longer. I have joined Katter’s Australian Party and am standing for the next election as a Candidate for McEwen in Victoria. Hopefully I will be able to take my place in reshaping the Government which should be working for the people and not the other way around. We need to get rid of the rhetoric ans start making Australia the Sovereign, strong, self sufficient Nation it can be, as it once was.
If you believe in this kind of Australia, then I ask you to Vote KAP in the Senate and House of Reps.
Bruce Stevens
I don’t think the media will give Rudd much of a honeymoon period. They were already beginning to turn on Wednesday night when he kept everyone waiting for his speech for half an hour.
Labor will see a rise, which will ebb away again. Regardless, he will still lead the party to a better performance than Gillard could have. At the same time, the Liberals need to hold their nerve (and based on the current polling, they have good reason to). If they scare easily and turn to Turnbull, the whole house of cards comes down on their heads. I don’t think they’ll be that stupid.
People don’t really look at what this means. Its more than just a popular face its an opportunity to have someone who communicates well in. When Gillard went, many of the people the coalition would target (Emerson, Swan, Conroy) are gone there is no minister the coalition can target. The argument that there will be inexperience is absolute crap. You will have people like Faulkner, Kim Carr, Fitzgibbon come back. Rudd also can set his own agenda.
He has great foreign relations, people know that and will believe what he says and the coalition is nervous now because this will jeopardise their turn back the boats slogan (Evident by minister for withdraw: Julie Bishop whinge on TV).
Rudd is also gaining alot of momentum in QLD with the morgan poll showing gains in marginals like Brisbane, Regionals like Dawson and even surprises like Dickson and Fisher. QLD will welcome Kevin and unfortunately for Abbott, Rudd understand QLDers which is pivotal for getting votes north of the tweed.
Rudd also has the chance to set agenda on issues like Gay marriage, revisiting an ETS things people will like and now Mr Tony Abbott Slogan man will have to come up with policy
The more people see of Rudd the more they will respond positively, what most forget is Rudd was only opposed internally, in the electorate he was ahead in the polls, he wasn’t hated by people and you noalition fans get ready to get off your backsides because the glossy slogan campaign will have to be replaced with the thing liberals hate…TALKING TO THE PEOPLE AND COMING UP WITH POLICY
Observer,
I, unlike you, value being a realist over suitability as an organiser for major parties. Is it possible Rudd will win the election? Sure. But the “proof” you throw up for how everything is now different is just garbage. Rudd has a lot of problems, just as he did when his polls were sinking three years ago. And that had nothing to do with the managerial deficits. He is still a Labor member who campaigned on Gillard’s message and voted with her to go back on the campaign promises. And it is nearly impossible to believe that his behaviour during this Parliament will go unremarked. It is one thing to be devastated by losing the leadership, but his campaign of destabilisation shows a flawed character, as does his persistence following his trouncing in caucus last year.
In the end, whatever Abbott’s faults, he is very good at the sort of nasty campaigning that destroys an opponent’s favourability. Abbott doesn’t need to become more popular to beat Rudd; he just needs to drag Rudd down, and he has plenty of ammunition with which to do it.
Well RichR you have to be a realist as an organiser and unfortunately your putting your political influence ahead of being realistic. Yes the polls were going down, as ud expect when you lead by a ridiculously high margin 60/40 throughout most of the term. He was still infront and still on track to win and still leading abbott in the polls, after the comments made by ministers now gone, his problem was the way he was being PM, you can’t deny the words that were spoken, we were still expected to win with a similar vote the only reason for change was we would have picked up more seats under Gillard. Abbott too went back on promises during his time in the Howard goverment, even put his own interests ahead of what was right for the nation when he was in health. His behaviour wont matter to the electorate especially when he has removed someone they didn’t respond to or particularly like. With Kevin it is always about the future thats what people like about him, the campaign by the Libs atm with the comments made during the 2012 leadership challenge is weak, people won’t care because most of those ministers are gone or didn’t like in the first place. And if you want to talk caucas ballots why don’t you look at the one where Abbott won with one vote! 57/45 looks much better then what Abbott got.
In the end Abbott has many faults and he isn’t good at campaigning full stop. If he is good at nasty campaigns why didn’t he win the last election. The public don’t respond with his attitude and it won’t work. The first day Rudd becomes PM Abbott doesnt say lets realease more plans or lets talk to people, its a new slogan. Rudd is engaging and hitting people with issues they care about like gay marriage and ETS. Rudd is a credible man and has more belief over Abbott especially on foreign affairs which will effect abbotts stop the boat slogan. Please tell me what ammo Phoney Slogan Abbott has to bring Rudd down
Rudd is irresponsible and has a big mouth. He has already caused trouble with Indonesia by suggesting the Opposition’s policy to turn back boats could risk “conflict with Indonesia”. I heard an interview this evening and Indonesia wasn’t too impressed by the remark.
Rightly, opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Julie Bishop hit back, describing Mr Rudd’s comments as irresponsible and reckless.
I’ll give you credit Observer, you are persistent.
The polls mean absolutely nothing at this point other than to say there is more support for Labor than before the spill. Let’s wait 3 or 4 weeks to see how it flushes out and then we will know what’s going on. Any poll in the next few weeks should be taken with a grain of salt. That is not to say that a Rudd led Labor Party won’t win. They might. But they might not. I sure believe they are more competitive, but you still have to favour the Coalition to win at the next election, but not in substantial landslide terms now.
I believe QLD will be much stronger for Labor and they should pick up seats there. Perhaps Labor will do a bit better in NSW, but not by anywhere near what the current swing is i.e. about 5%. Not sure about anywhere else though, and Labor could actually do much worse in VIC and SA compared to current polling given their VIC/SA PM is now gone and given that these were historically strong for Labor at the last election.
I think we all need to take a chill pill for a few weeks until we get to see how it all settles down. No doubt though, Labor supporters deserve to have some optimism. They just also need to hope that swinging voters have buried their heads in the sand for the last 4 years because this Government has been probably the worst in Australian history in terms of leadership and authority.
Labour won’t win. They know they won’t win. They just don’t want to be completely annihilated. They have pretty much said as much.
If you go through the list of failures and lies you can see they haven’t a hope of hell in winning. Shame the Libs only have Tony Abbott, but there are a few good youngsters on the way up.
“Well RichR you have to be a realist as an organiser and unfortunately your putting your political influence ahead of being realistic.” If the first half of that is true, you are either overstating your confidence or are/would be a terrible organiser because your comments over an extended period have shown a distinct lack of realism. As to the second part, I assume you mean something other than “influence”, as that would mean I put my ability to affect the political system ahead of being realistic, with is both irrelevant and a weird thing to say. Assuming you mean my political beliefs, you couldn’t be more wrong. I am fairly left wing and find many of the Liberal Party’s policies and tactics detestable. I am however sufficiently emotionally detached that I can see the Labor Party as a disorganised mess. I can also see Rudd as something other than a universally loved paragon of sweetness and light and Abbot as the something other than a universally loathed insect you see him, the impressions you seem to have. The fact is that while Abbott isn’t hugely popular, most leaders of the opposition (an not just in Australia) have trouble with BPM and satisfaction ratings, yet they get elected anyway. Also, you seem to think that everyone who has an unfavourable view of Abbott has the same level of intensity as a partisan like you. That is a mistake that is made over and over and over again. Oddly, it is the left who make that mistake the most: I point to Reagan, Thatcher, George W. Bush, and Stephen Harper as just a few examples. I could add Howard, but I’m guessing I don’t have to.
Shirl this happened for a reason, I’m not saying labor’s certain but I do believe that Kevin has as much chance as Abbott does.
I agree Queensland will be generous to Rudd, it showed signs of strong labor links at a state level last year and with a QLD leader, should go back to those levels and be better federally. Western Sydney will be much easier, I’d say now labor only has to be concerned with Banks, Reid, Lindsay and Greenway as opposed to seats like Chifley and Werriwa. Regional seats should be retainable now (Page, Eden-Monaro, and polling already indicated a tight race in Robertson before the spill). SA/VIC could swing but I think the results should be relatively similar but a better chance of holding all the red seats in labor, VIC will be challenge but not impossible.
I don’t agree this has been a bad government, yes its been bad on leadership but I see no reason it should be tossed out. NBN, NDIS, Gonski, more in health, road development. This has been a great government just poor communicators and now with Rudd there is really no reason to vote for Abbott. In saying that though its not a shoe in for Rudd and its not a shoe in for Abbott
RichR I really think you will be surprised on election day and will see that Rudd actually has a good chance at winning this. Maybe wait till he reveals more of his agenda which ATM is strong, especially gay marriage
What people are forgetting is the coalition starting a further three seats in front fisher lyne and new england. So labor is 4 seats behind(coalition has 1 more seat then labor). They not only have to defend, they also have to gain. Now if labor does well brisbane is in play but then the lnp will still gain moreton and petrie. Forde could be interesting. Lilley is line ball. Now the regional seats are in play if katter preferences rudd. Dawson herbert flynn all go. Hinkler a line ball. So labor takes 5, lnp but takes 2 the other way in qld.
Oddly enough, I actually think Kingsford Smith is now in play too. Garrett had a massive personal vote and Labor is very much on the nose in Sydney. Agree with Observer in that alot of those middle ring suburban seats should be safe holds for Labor, but I don’t think they can win Lindsay or Greenway and Banks will be very difficult this time. Reid is more likely a hold for the ALP. As hard for Labor in Robertson and Dobell as it was before I think.
This election will throw up plenty of surprises and I’d take the current polls with a grain of salt, no matter what they show.
Without argument, Labor will win seats in QLD. It’s just whether they win enough there to offset losses in other States which will occur.
My prediction in the end is, “if you can’t govern yourselves you can’t govern the country” will ring true for most of the swinging voters. The NSW disease has certainly hit Labor (i.e. changing leaders just before an election in an attempt to elicit more support) and I don’t think NSW will be as forgiving as the polls in the last couple of nights suggest. But that’s just me. I could well be wrong and Rudd could be the messiah. I reckon SA will result in a number of seat losses for Labor. Would not be surprised to see 15% swings in a number of SA seats.
I agree DB. Much of my last post is educated speculation.
I still think the LNP will pick up Moreton and Petrie. Just Labor now has the seats I mentioned in its grasp.
What are your thoughts on Parramatta? It always seems forgotten when mentioning Western Sydney marginal.
Queensland Observer
You are a smart bloke thinking of Parra. I reckon the Libs might still win that one just based on history. It will be really close.
DB, basing Parramatta on history is a mistake. The seat is quite different since Lowe/Reid was abolished. But the Liberals would win easy based on state results.
My take is Labor’s chances of winning the election have risen from 0.01% to about 20%.
The Labor brand is trashed, but Rudd does have a stronger personal following than Abbott. I think the switch also puts the Liberals, rather than Labor on the defensive, and the Liberals will need to be wary that their attacks on Rudd don’t come across as overly negative.
Rudd will also enjoy a friendly run from the media, who are keen to sell the story of the comeback kid, and it’s in their interest if the election is a contest.
DB
Does Garrett have a massive personal vote??. i’ve no idea.
I agree that Rudd’s comeback will make no difference in Dobell, & Robertson.
Why have you changed your view of Reid??. There are perhaps as many as 10,000 new voters there since 2010, (most with big mortgages). i still believe the winning margin in Reid will be higher in Reid than Parramatta.
What you began with is however the point. Labor (the brand) is on the nose in Sydney. The wrath of the electorate is unabated.
I am in the adjoining Federal electorate to Kingsford Smith and politically active at the State and Local level. More than half of my Council is in Kingsford Smith, so I do have a good feel for the area.
It is pretty safe to say, from what I have encountered lately, that Garrett wouldn’t have been elected and that’s why he jumped ship. He isn’t liked in the electorate and there is bad feeling about for him. He only got in by the skin of his teeth last time around.
I don’t know how an unknown ALP candidate will go down with voters, given that the Liberal candidate,Michael Feneley, is a well known and very active local identity. He received a good swing to him last time around.
The demographics have changed too. Property prices in the area have increased significantly in some parts of the electorate too.
I see Combet is not recontesting the next election. That makes it on my count as a result of the other night, Combet, Garrett, Gillard, Smith, and Emerson. Plus Ferguson, McClelland, Roxon and Chris Evans who are/were all Senior Cabinet Ministers retiring at the next election. That is 9 from the Senior Ministry in the last 3 years retiring.
My tip is that someone from Labor will dump on Rudd in the campaign probably more than Rudd dumped on Gillard last time. And that WILL hurt him.
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