Europe 2009 – Romania

Romania first conducted a European Parliament election in November 2007, when a by-election was conducted. This followed Romania’s 2007 admission into the EU along with Bulgaria. Romania elected 35 MEPs in 2007, and will elect 33 MEPs next weekend. The 2007 result was:

• Democratic Party (European People’s Party) – 28.81%, 13 seats
• Social Democratic Party (Party of European Socialists) – 23.11%, 11 seats
• National Liberal Party (European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party) – 13.44%, 6 seats
• Liberal Democratic Party (EPP) – 7.78%, 3 seats
• Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (EPP) – 5.52%, 2 seats
• László Tőkés (European Free Alliance) – 3.44%, 1 seat

László Tőkés was elected as an independent. He is running with the Democratic Union of Hungarians in 2009. A month after the election, the Democratic Party and the Liberal Democratic Party merged to form the Democratic Liberal Party.

A conservative government including the National Liberal Party, the Democratic Party and the Democratic Union of Hungarians was elected in 2004 and held office at the time of the 2007 European by-election. The 2008 Romanian national election saw a grand coalition take office involving the Democratic Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party after a major victory for the DLP.

Recent polls put the Democratic Liberal Party on about 30%, down from the 36.6% the two constituent parties polled in 2007. The Social Democratic Party are running in coalition with the Conservative Party (ALDE), and the two parties collectively polled about 26% in 2007. Recent polls put them on 30-31%. The National Liberal Party is polling 16-21%, up from 13.44% in 2007.

Smaller parties are all hovering around the 5% threshold. The New Generation Party, who polled 4.85% in 2007, seem to be polling at similar levels this time, which makes it impossible to determine if they will reach the threshold. The Greater Romania Party are also polling around 4-6%. The Democratic Union of Hungarians, who polled just over 5% in 2007, have been polling 5-8% in recent weeks. There is also an independent, Elena Băsescu, who is polling 3-4%. I haven’t been able to exactly find the Romanian electoral law in the case, but it appears that there is a lower threshold for independent candidates, as two parties failed to win any seats when polling between 4% and 5% while an independent was elected on 3.44%.

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