Northern Tablelands 2013 – results live

Results as of 8:33pm

8:23pm – I’m going to call it a night now, and I’ll come back tomorrow with a results summary.

8:21pm – The Nationals vote for each part of the seat is as follows:

• Armidale – 51.1%
• Glen Innes – 63.9%
• Gwydir – 75.4%
• Inverell – 64.8%
• South – 69.4%
• Prepoll – 63.6%

8:20pm – We have now got votes from all 44 polling places, and we’re just waiting on postal votes, iVotes and provisional votes.

8:15pm – The projections have been reasonably good. Since the beginning the projection has seen the Nationals heading to the low 60s, despite topline figures in the mid-70s.

8:14pm – And we’re back. We’re only waiting on three booths: Drake Community Hall, Inverell Public School and Tingha Public School. We’ve also gained the Prepoll and Declared Institution votes.

7:45pm – Taking a dinner break now – it’s been 20 minutes since we’ve had an update. Overall about 22,000 formal votes were cast amongst those booths that have reported, out of a total of 32,000 formal ordinary votes (not including Absentee, Postal, Pre-poll, etc) at the last election. We’re waiting for two big booths in Inverell and a scattering of smaller booths.

7:39pm – Correction, there are only five booths in Armidale, and all five have now reported, with the Nationals on 51.1% in the area. I incorrectly counted the two booths that were abolished.

7:20pm – In Armidale, 2/7 booths have reported. The Nationals are on 50.7%, followed by Maher on 20.3% and the ALP on 12.4%. In the south (which includes rural electorates around Armidale), 12/16 booths have reported. The Nationals are on 69%. In Inverell, 3/6 booths have reported. The Nationals are on 69.3%, followed by Labor on 12.3%. In Glen Innes, 5/10 booths have reported, and the Nationals are on 67.3%. In Gwydir, 4/7 booths have reported, and the Nationals are on 86.3%.

7:19pm – To give you a sense of where the booths have come from, I have done some analysis using the five regions I used for my pre-election analysis.

7:16pm – We have started getting results in from Armidale now, where the Nationals are polling just over 50% of the primary vote. Their vote has dropped substantially, but it’s hard to see them not winning a majority. The ALP and Jim Maher are both doing better now, but miles behind.

6:54pm – Adam Marshall is looking very strong on 16 booths so far, but still a very small sample. The number of votes counted so far is less than 5% of the total formal votes at the 2011 state election. I also discovered an error in the spreadsheet, and have updated the spreadsheet at this link, with the first 16 booths included.

6:43pm – Ten booths in so far, and the Nationals’ Adam Marshall is winning comfortably, with 76% of the vote. My projection suggests that these booths are relatively stronger for the Nationals, and that vote should fall to around 59-60%.

6:29pm – First booth in is Chandler Public School in the south of the electorate. The booth was won with 54.8% of the vote by Richard Torbay in 2011. This time, the National has won 75% of the vote. The second-placed candidate was Jim Maher.

4:50pm – Good afternoon. From 6:30pm tonight I will be providing results commentary for the 2013 Northern Tablelands by-election. For now you can read the Tally Room profile of the race. If you are really interested, you can also download the spreadsheet that I will be using to track the results. It matches the 2013 booths to the 2011 booths, and includes results from 2011 for the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council. In theory, it will provide you with matching swings based on which booths have reported so far. I put it together today so can’t guarantee there are some formula errors, so buyer beware. You can download the spreadsheet here.

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