- Montgomery – Hiscutt (LIB) 45.83%, Fuller 29.64%, Morgan 14.52%, Vincent 10.01%
- Nelson – Wilkinson 48.80%, Baxter (GRN) 25.33%, Richardson 17.65%, Willink 8.22%
- Pembroke – Goodwin (LIB) 50.98%, Ritchie 36.35%, Heatley (GRN) 12.67%
8:10pm – With most of the results in, the picture is reasonably clear. In Nelson, Wilkinson has suffered a large swing, as have the Greens. Wilkinson and the Greens were the only candidates in 2008, so it’s understandable that both candidates have lost ground. In Pembroke, Goodwin has been re-elected with a swing of over 12%. Liberal candidate Hiscutt should easily win on preferences in Montgomery.
8:07pm – We now have most of the results in. All polling places have reported. In Nelson we have both pre-poll and postal, with only postal in Pembroke and only pre-poll in Montgomery.
6:55pm – And in Pembroke, a second booth has Goodwin over 50% of the vote. I’ll be taking a break now for dinner, and will return at 7:30pm with more results, and maps.
6:53pm – We have our first booth in from Nelson, and Jim Wilkinson has won it with 59% of the vote.
6:52pm – With twelve booths now in, Leonie Hiscutt is winning comfortably in Montgomery.
6:49pm – Unfortunately I haven’t had time to consider booth-matching in Pembroke, but Antony Green is suggesting that one polling place is relatively poor for the Liberal as he is projected just under 50% of the primary vote for the Liberal, Vanessa Goodwin.
6:42pm -We’ve just started getting in results. In Montgomery in north-western Tasmania, Liberal candidate Leonie Hiscutt is leading with 50.4% of the primary vote off eight polling booths. In Pembroke, after one booth, sitting Liberal MLC Vanessa Goodwin is narrowly behind former Labor MLC and current independent candidate Allison Ritchie with 8% of the vote with the Greens candidate.
Solid outcomes in all three cases, after a more public and nasty campaign than normal for the LegCo.
That is what you get with the State government on the nose and trying to do damage on the way out, and the upper house holding the fort.
Next year should be quieter with having had both federal and state elections.
I know it is always dangerous imposing state results, particularly a legislative council election, on to federal results. However, if I were Julie Collins I would be feeling a bit uncomfortable today. A large portion of the voters of Franklin cast a ballot on Saturday in Penbroke or the southern part of Nelson. At the last federal election, Collins won the Warrane Mornington booths on a TPP of 76,73,and 71%. On Saturday a liberal candidate won close to 40% of the primary vote in the same area. In areas that Collins won comfortably on a TPP in 2010, Geilston Bay (56), Lindisfarne(61), Bellerive (54) and Howrah (57) the liberal won more than 50% of the primary vote. These probably make up the “bell weather” booths for Franklin.
In Kingston, part of Nelson, a similar story with the “conservative” candidate – Jim Wilkinson, achieving around 45% of the primary vote (yes down since the last election but two more candidates and an “independent labor” candidate was running).
The Franklin profile has now been posted, if you want to discuss Julie Collins’ chances.
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