Lyndhurst by-election results wrap-up

By
Ben Raue
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7

Update: results now include prepoll figures that came in late on the night. The Greens have overtaken the Sex Party, coming fifth. The DLP have overtaken Hung Vo for third place.

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Lyndhurst’s by-election will certainly see Labor candidate Martin Pakula elected, but the results were more interesting than expected. The swing against Labor currently sits on 14.5%.

Results from polling places and postal votes have been counted, with early votes and provisional votes yet to come.

On the current figures, the Family First candidate is coming second, followed in quick succession by independent candidate Hung Vo, and the DLP, the Greens and the Sex Party.

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Martin Leahy SXP 2,632 8.5 +8.5
Nina Springle GRN 2,910 9.4 +3.2
Hung Vo IND 3,017 9.7 +6.1
Bobby Singh IND 620 2.0 +2.0
Stephen Nowland FF 4,389 14.1 +9.3
David Linaker IND 1,353 4.4 +4.4
Martin Pakula ALP 12,698 40.9 -14.6
Geraldine Gonsalvez DLP 3,422 11.0 +9.8

The result is disappointing for Labor. Despite the fact that they should comfortably retain the seat, they lost a huge chunk of their vote in a race with no high-profile opponent and no Liberal candidate at all.

The increase in vote for the independent and two right-wing minor candidates isn’t surprising, as 27.8% of the vote had to flow somewhere in the absence of the Liberal Party.

In these circumstances, it’s not surprising that these voters largely favoured Family First and the DLP over the Greens.

The Greens would be disappointed coming fifth or sixth in the seat, but despite being overtaken by other candidates, the result was still an increase in the Greens vote. Currently the Greens are up 2.8%, and only went backwards in one booth.

On the night the notional two-candidate-preferred count was conducted between Labor and the Greens, which was made redundant by the order of candidates on primary votes. While Family First are likely to come second, we won’t know that until the official distribution of preferences is conducted.

Click below the fold to look at a series of maps, featuring first preference maps for the six top polling candidates. For Labor, the Greens, the DLP and Family First, and for Hung Vo, I’ve also included swing maps.

Labor primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Labor primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing against Labor at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing against Labor at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Family First primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Family First primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to Family First at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to Family First at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Hung Vo at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Hung Vo at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to independent candidate Hung Vo at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to independent candidate Hung Vo at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to the Greens at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to the Greens at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Democratic Labor Party primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Democratic Labor Party primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to the Democratic Labor Party at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Swing to the Democratic Labor Party at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Sex Party primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
Sex Party primary votes at the 2013 Lyndhurst by-election.
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7 COMMENTS

  2. I reckon this is a terrible result for both the Greens and Labor. Sure, the Greens vote increased off a lowish base, but arguably this was at the expense of some of the Liberal vote. As for Labor, wow! Labor have no good news anywhere it seems at the moment.

  3. Not a “poor result” according to Twitter. Labor supporters were claiming it was a fantastic result for them, cause they’d “gained a seat from the Liberals”.

    Antony Green had to roll up his sleeves and get his hands dirty setting them straight.

  4. I’m not claiming this is a brilliant result from the Greens, but I stand by my claim that it is a positive result for them. This is a by-election in a very poor area for the Greens, and with a Labor candidate but no Liberal candidate. Polling almost 10% in that area is quite good – it only looks bad in comparison with the other candidates, but the DLP and Family First are much more natural homes for the Liberal vote than the Greens.

  5. Honestly, it was a by-election from an MP who wasn’t expected to leave and a bunch of fairly disparate indis and minor party types, I don’t think too much can be taken from this.

    I had expected Labor to poll better, but they won’t be too upset about the result. They did, after all, hold the seat and were 50-50 in today’s Newspoll. I would expect the next State election to return a result in Lyndhurst that is far more similar to the 2010 election than this by-election.

    The Sex Party can probably feel pretty chuffed by the result and the DLP, FFP and Hung Vo will be satisfied, though their votes should have risen in the absence of a Lib candidate.Despite it being a more interested by-election than expected, I would say that today’s Newspoll offers a greater insight into the next election than this by-election does.

  7. With a swing against Labor like that, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened, had there been a Liberal candidate. But at the same time, some traditional Labor voters probably took the opportunity to vote for someone else (such as the Sex Party), knowing that the seat wasn’t going to change hands.

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