South Africa update

Since I last updated yesterday morning, most of the votes in South Africa have been counted, and the vote percentages have shifted significantly.

With about 15 million votes counted, the latest figures are as follows:

• ANC – 66.56%
• DA – 15.95%
• COPE – 7.5%
• IFP – 4.45%
• ID – 0.9%

In addition, the Democratic Alliance has won a slim majority of the vote in the provincial election in Western Cape, which should give DA leader Helen Zille the Premiership of the province.

On the current trends, it appears that the ANC will reach its two-thirds majority. Although you would have to consider such a figure to be symbolic. The Mbeki administration held a larger two-thirds majority since the 2004 election, without any dramatic changes to the constitution. When you consider the ongoing divisions within the ANC, you would have to say that Zuma won’t have sufficient control over the National Assembly to be able to dictate constitutional change, even if he wanted to.

While the opposition vote has only increased slightly, they will be in a stronger position in the future. Zille’s leadership of Western Cape makes her a stronger candidate in the future. Talks of potential alliance between DA, COPE, the IFP and possibly the Independent Democrats opens up the possibility of giving Zille credibility amongst black voters.

While Zille’s DA has performed well amongst the white community, black voters are still firmly aligned with the ANC, and they will continue to hold a lock on re-election as long as they stay dominant amongst South Africa’s black voters. The credibility of some of COPE’s leaders due to their experience as part of the ANC during the apartheid era could help a unified opposition challenge the ANC in South Africa’ s black heartland.

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