10:30pm – In Brindabella, the Greens have faded and are unlikely to win a seat, producing a likely result of three Liberals and two Labor. Labor’s two seats will go to Joy Burch and Mick Gentleman. Gentleman held a seat from 2004 to 2008, when Burch defeated him in his re-election bid. The first two Liberal seats will go to Liberal leader Zed Seselja and his deputy Brendan Smyth. The third Liberal seat will be a race between Andrew Wall and Val Jeffery, and will largely depend on the surplus from Seselja.
10:27pm – In Ginninderra, there will be two Labor, two Liberals and one Green. Sitting MLAs Vicki Dunne, Alistair Coe, Meredith Hunter and Mary Porter will be re-elected. The second Labor seat is currently held by Chris Bourke, who replaced Jon Stanhope when he retired. Bourke is in a tight race with Yvette Berry for the final Labor seat.
10:24pm – In Molonglo, the result seems to be set for 3 Labor, 3 Liberal and 1 Green. Sitting MLAs Katy Gallagher, Andrew Barr and Jeremy Hanson are all set to be re-elected, along with Liberal candidate and former MLA Giulia Jones. Long-term sitting MLA Simon Corbell is trailing behind Meegan Fitzharris for the third Labor seat. Sitting Member for Brindabella Steve Doszpot is likely to win the third Liberal seat, but could be under threat from Elizabeth Lee. The two sitting Greens MPs Shane Rattenbury and Caroline le Couteur are competing for the sole Greens seat in Molonglo, with Rattenbury favourite to win.
10:23pm – At the moment it looks very likley that the result will be 8 Liberals, 7 Labor and 2 Greens.
8:49pm – Very interesting to see Attorney-General Simon Corbell coming fourth out of the Labor candidates in Molonglo. The seat will be decided by Katy Gallagher’s preferences, but Meegan Fitzharris is 0.1 quota ahead of Simon Corbell.
8:11pm – It seems that the Greens vote has clearly gone backwards, following in the trend of a number of elections over the last two years where the Greens vote has gone backwards. The Greens vote is still substantially higher than in 2004, up from about 9% to 15% and down to 11%. It’s also worth noting that the Greens have suffered a 4.6% against them, compared to a 4.1% vote for the new Bullet Train party. Not all of these votes would have come from the Greens, but a lot of them would.
8:02pm – Labor and the Greens have been improving their vote in Brindabella. The Liberals are now on 2.76 quotas and the Greens on 0.53 quotas. If the Greens get preferences from the Bullet Train party they will have a strong chance of retaining their seat.
7:01pm – Most of the electronic votes are in at the moment. If the rest of the vote follows this pattern the result will be 8 Liberal, 7 Labor, 2 Greens, which would still result in a hung parliament. The Liberals are in a strong position to gain Greens seats in Molonglo and Brindabella but not really in Ginninderra.
6:44pm – There’s a lot more of the electronic votes reported on the ACT Elections website. On these figures it looks like 7 Labor, 6 Liberals, 2 Greens with two seats (Molonglo and Brindabella) up in the air between Greens and Liberals.
6:36pm – If you assumed that figures stayed as they are now (which I’m sure they won’t be), Labor will hold seven, Liberal will hold six, the Greens will hold three and the final Greens seat in Molonglo is under threat from the Liberals.
6:34pm – On very small numbers of votes in, there are small swings but nothing particularly dramatic.
6:31pm – Remember that the ACT’s electoral system means that each electorate elects multiple MPs, and also means that different candidates from each party will be competing with each other. Early figures will largely give us a sense of how many seats each party will win, but not necessarily the individual candidates who will win.
6:25pm – About 22% of voters in the ACT had already voted in prepoll, and a large majority of those votes were cast electronically. This should mean we start getting figures through very soon.
6:16pm – I will be blogging here and tweeting as @benraue as election results come in tonight – stay touched.
