10:47pm – CORRECTION – My calculations were miscounting absentee votes from last time. Now that I have fixed this, and added in prepoll votes (which helped the Greens, but not enough) it seems likely that Labor will win on postal votes, unless the Greens do very well on them. Having said that the gap is barely 200 votes so who knows.
9:49pm – And here are same vote maps showing the two-party-preferred votes. I’m signing off for the night.
9:45pm – With all but one booth reporting, Labor leads with 50.14% on raw votes. However my projection has the Greens ahead with 50.57% once you factor in the same swing for the remaining votes to come.
9:22pm – So with ten booths reporting preferences, Labor leads with 50.37%. However the swing suggests the projected 2PP will be much closer, around 50.0. It’s basically a dead heat.
8:45pm – Sorry, eleven booths.
8:39pm – With twelve primary vote booths in, the trend is clear. 6.6% swing to the Greens, 2.2% swing against Labor. Sex Party on 7%, Nolte on 5.8%, Mayne on 4.3%.
8:34pm – Three booths now have reported preferences. Swing of 6.34% from Labor to Greens. Worth noting that while the VEC is reporting 52.8% to the Greens overall, these three booths are relatively good for the Greens so that number will be lower if this swing is replicated.
8:32pm – We now have nine booths in. The swing to the Greens on primary votes is 6.5%. There’s a swing of 3.1% against Labor. This is on primary votes.
8:22pm – William Bowe is projecting a two-party-preferred split of 50.3%. This assumes that all minor party voters went 70-30 to the party that their how-to-vote favoured. However the largest minor party so far is the Sex Party. Their how-to-votes favoured Labor, but they are notoriously independent voters and are expected to favour Greens more than the how-to-vote would suggest.
7:56pm – On the first two booths, Labor is up 0.5% and Greens up 6.1%.
7:49pm – With North Melbourne East and Parkville reporting, there’s a swing of 6.11% to the Greens. 4.98% at Parkville and 7.3% at North Melbourne East.
7:12pm – Nick Carson (I believe a Greens scrutineer) on Twitter is reporting that the Greens won the RMIT booth 489-300. If this is two-party-preferred, that’s 61.98% for the Greens, a swing of 13.37%.
6:22pm – Still no results. There are fourteen booths, compared to 15 in 2010. Three of the booths from last time have been abolished, with two new booths created. I’ll be attempting to provide a swing based on which booths have come in, and as the night goes on I plan to provide some maps showing the results. For the time being you can see the maps showing the results in 2010 at my guide to the by-election.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed in Melbourne. There are fourteen booths to be counted, as well as extra votes.
5:48pm – Polls will be closing in twelve minutes in Melbourne. I will be covering the results as they come in right here at the Tally Room.
So is it all over bar the counting?
Do you have any predictions about who will win? Are there any reliable exit polls to look at?
I’m hearing that Sex Party voters are only slightly favouring the ALP, but it’s fairly close to a 50/50 split. Apparently Stephen Mayne’s votes are going all over the place as well.
Insider info 🙂
North Melbourne East results;
I can say 45% of Sex Party votes were going against HTV therefore preferring Greens.
85% of Mayne’s votes were going to Greens.
Some of the smaller numbers of Independents were pretty much 2-2 or 1-3 for Greens. High percentage of Nolte votes went to ALP.
However one should note the amount of Informal votes which high percentage were disgruntled Liberals who scrawled “Liberals!!” or “Voting for Liberals”. In my observing opinion, there could be a chance that the informal votes would have made the 2nd preference deadlock at 50-50% or even favouring ALP.
It is a credit to the Victorian Greens that they have got as close as they have considering the usual tactics of the ALP and ofcourse with the assistance of that most ‘evil’ of organisations, the Vatican. The Sex Party will not be forgotten either but what you expect from a party that openly promotes the degredation of women and all of their cheating, heterosexual husbands!
Brenty, was anyone complaining about “degradation of women” when Sex Party prefs elected Lee Rhiannon as NSW senator?
No? Why not?
And those damn hetros! Are cheating, bisexual husbands “evil’ too? If not, why not?
If the Greens want to start winning lower house seats convincingly, they will need to start winning 40% of the vote. So far, they owe all of their lower house seats to preferences. Before they go mouthing off that labor accepted the preferences of Independents and Family First, they might like to remember that they only won the federal seat of Melbourne because they took preferences from Tony Abbott.
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