Roy Morgan polling has come out with a new poll measuring voting intention for the Senate, broken down according to each state and the ACT.
The poll predicts 34-35 ALP senators, 30-31 Coalition senators, 8-10 Greens and 2 Xenophon. It was conducted during March for the three larger states, January-March for the three smaller states and over the last six months for the ACT, presumably in order to achieve a large enough sample to produce a meaningful result.
Past attempts at Senate polling have been rare and woefully inaccurate, however the picture this poll paints is similar to a lot of projections, in that it sees the Greens gaining seats and completely controlling the balance of power as the Coalition lose seats and Steven Fielding loses his seat.
Xenophon Double Senator. That’s quite an effort.
Well he would have had at least one running mate to get an above the line spot. It would be like at the 2006 SA election where he got about 2 1/2 quotas, elected his first running mate and nearly his second.
Yeah, and his running mate blew up in his face. Ann Bressington and Xenophon immediately fell out and they went out of their way to be seen as two independents, not as a party, once in Parliament.
On the other hand, Xenophon didn’t run a ticket at the 2002 election when he wasn’t up for re-election.
I tend to think Xenophon won’t run a ticket in 2010.
Yes, I cannot see Xenephon running a ticket in 2010, so having ‘two Xenephons’ is quite weird. I would also question whether people would vote for a Xenephon sponsored ticket if he wasn’t actually in it. I would have thought that Morgon Polling would have thought of this and not put him in…
Not being from SA, can someone explain why he is so popular? Where does he fit in the old one dimensional political model?
Austin, being from South Australia, I can tell you it is exactly because Xenephon doesnt fit into the old one dimensional political model that is why he is so popular. Nick also comes across as an Australian ‘Ratbag’ in the old sense of the word and the electorate likes that a great deal. Xenophon gets votes from all different areas of the community. Lets face it, the South Australian public would rather have Nick sitting in the Senate, than other Labor and Liberal Senate backbenchers who nod their heads in agreement (like the lemmings over the cliff) with anything that their party says. Nick has support from across a broad section of the South Australian community. One good thing Nick will keep that seat away from Family First and for me that is good value. South Australians are fortunate to have a Greens Senator and an Iindependent Senator as well. Two less Laborials is wonderful.
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