New Zealand: results

9:32 – National is now down to 61 seats, Labour on 33, Greens on 13, with others the same with NZF on 8, Maori Party on 3 and three other parties on 1 each.

9:23 – Look at the political arrangements at the current projection. The left (Labour + Greens + Mana) has 46 seats. National and its allies has 67 seats, with New Zealand First on 8. If National drops a few seats they may well rely on the Maori Party to maintain their position.

9:15 – Having said that Antony Green projects National falling to 48.5%, which would give them only 60 seats. There is no doubt they will form a government, but maybe not with a majority.

9:11 – I’m going to stop monitoring the key electorates as they are all clearly headed where they were looking like earlier. Currently National is on 62/121 seats. They could still form a majority if they drop to 63. Their coalition partners have fallen from 11 seats in 2008 to only five seats this time.

9:06 – National has now fallen below 50% but are still projected to win a slim majority.

8:40 – Some points worth noting: National tends to do better on the advance vote. This result would only produce an overhang of one seat. Three small parties would effectively be reduced to a single seat, making their electorate MP an effective independent. On current figures former Opposition Leader Don Brash wouldn’t get elected.

8:38 – If the current results nationally were translated into a result, with ACT, Mana and United Future winning one seat each and the Maori Party winning three, the result would be:

• National – 63
• Labour – 32
• Green – 12
• NZ First – 8
• Maori – 3
• ACT – 1
• Mana – 1
• United Future – 1

8:29 – There are five key seats I covered in yesterday’s post. In Epsom, ACT candidate John Banks is leading National 46-38. In Ohariu, Peter Dunne is leading Labour 52-46. In Te Tai Tokerau, the Mana Party’s Hone Harawira is leading Labour 50-34. In Te Tai Tonga, the Maori Party MP Katene is trailing the Labour candidate 32-40. In Hauraki-Waikato, the sitting Labour MP is well ahead of both the Mana and Maori candidates. This would result in the Mana, ACT and United Future each winning a single seat and the Maori Party dropping from four seats to three.

8:25 – Interpreting these results on face value, it would give National a majority or close to it, it would be the worst ever result for Labour and the best ever for the Greens. It would also see NZF returned to Parliament with approximately 8 seats. I’m doing some analysis of key electorates to produce a projection on current figures.

8:19 – Overall the Nationals are currently on 50% of the vote, Labour on 26.1%, the Greens on 10.1% and New Zealand First on 6.8%. Bear in mind that early results favour National and go against Labour. It’s not yet clear if NZF benefits in the advance vote.

8:17 – Welcome to my coverage of the New Zealand election. Polls closed over an hour ago and most of the results so far are advance votes (called prepoll votes in Australia). Will provide a roundup of results so far in a minute.

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