Eltham – Victoria 2014

ALP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Steve Herbert, since 2002.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Eltham covers the suburbs of Briar Hill, Diamond Creek, Eltham, Eltham North, Greensborough, Kangaroo Ground Lower Plenty, Montmorency, Research and parts of St Helena and Watsons Creek. Eltham covers parts of the City of Banyule and Nillumbik Shire.

Map of Eltham's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Eltham’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Eltham expanded to the north and east, gaining parts of Greensborough, Diamond Creek, Research and Kangaroo Ground from Yan Yean. These changes did not affect the Labor margin.

History
Eltham was first created in 1992. It was first won by the Liberal Party’s Wayne Phillips. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Steve Herbert.

Steve Herbert was re-elected in Eltham in 2006 and 2010. He has served as a shadow minister since the 2010 election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Steve Herbert is not running in Eltham, but is instead running as the lead Labor candidate for the Legislative Council in the Northern Victoria region.

  1. Chris Byrne (Independent)
  2. Steven Briffa (Liberal)
  3. Janna Fenn (Family First)
  4. Michael Janson (Australian Christians)
  5. Vicki Ward (Labor)
  6. Leizl Shnookal (Greens)
  7. Ryan Ebert (Independent)

Assessment
Eltham is Labor’s most marginal seat, and will likely swing to the party that wins the statewide vote. If Labor gains a statewide swing as opinion polls currently predict, they should hold on here, but may struggle with the loss of the incumbent MP.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Andrew Hart Liberal 16,047 44.87 +5.68 44.41
Steve Herbert Labor 13,792 38.57 -5.85 38.83
James Searle Greens 4,747 13.27 -0.13 13.06
Shane Porter Family First 619 1.73 -1.27 1.97
Trudi Aiashi Democratic Labor 557 1.56 +1.56 1.73

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Steve Herbert Labor 18,173 50.82 -5.60 50.97
Andrew Hart Liberal 17,589 49.18 +5.6 49.03
Polling places in Eltham at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in blue, North in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Eltham at the 2010 Victorian state election. East in blue, North in orange, West in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Eltham have been divided into three areas: east, west and north.

The ALP won slim majorities just over 51% in the east and west, while the Liberal Party won 50.5% in the north.

The Greens vote is much higher in the east and west (14-15%) compared to 8.6% in the north.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
East 15.40 51.13 10,785 27.00
West 14.40 51.05 8,110 20.30
North 8.60 49.51 5,770 14.44
Other votes 12.39 51.35 15,283 38.26
Two-party-preferred votes in Eltham at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Eltham at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Eltham at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Eltham at the 2010 Victorian state election.

15 COMMENTS

  1. Bizarre decision by Labor to move popular sitting member Steve Herbert to the Upper House. If the statewide polls tighten they could be in trouble here due to the loss of his personal vote. On top of that, the Liberal candidate Steven Briffa seems effective.

  3. Agree with Observer, so surprising Labor has chosen to parachute Steve Herbert into the Upper House. Steve Briffa looks like a good candidate and may buck the trend and defeat Labor here. Will be one to watch for sure

  4. Its probably to counter popularity Mary Wooldridge will deliver in contesting Eastern Metrapolitan. Lbor got 1.83 quota and libs 3.10 they would be weakened from redistribution but labor needs as many progressives in the council as the libs hold a majority. Its possible that if labor got over 2 quota, could assist greens in taking a seat off the libs which would realistically benefit labor in the LC

  6. Woops his contesting Northern Victoria. That makes more sense, he can solidify labor’s vote and get the 2 seats whilst the coalition might lose on to the country party alliance which they nealry did in 2010. But its unlikely in this environment that the libs could pick up seats so this would be a retain whilst Herbert can campaign here and strengthen labor’s ticket. I was only comenting on LC seats because of the reason there is no incumbent in this seat

  7. The Oz reported internal Lib polling suggesting that Eltham and Ivanhoe are possible Lib gains (supposedly as the only Labor seats that would benefit from the East-West Link).

    Eltham, perhaps, but I find Ivanhoe hard to believe – even more so because it’s Lib polling leaked to the Oz. It just seems too likely that they’d confect polling and leak it to their cheerleaders in the press to hope for some momentum.

    Current odds are $1.33 ALP and $3 for the Libs, both in Eltham and overall.

  8. Labor have a few MPs in normally marginal seats going at this election.

    Eltham, Macedon, Oakleigh, Geelong and Ripon are all being vacated.

  9. I think ur right there PJ, internal polling is helping them write a narrative that the election isn’t lost otherwise there would be a huge collapse in support

  10. On the face of it that finger poking out from the north west of the electorate is a strange looking boundary. All the more so with Bundoora looking disjoint as a result. But on closer inspection, it makes perfect sense. That part of Greensborough lies west of the river, but its only road connection is to the east of the river. One of those suburban peculiarities.

  11. The west end of that strip would be a bad place to suddenly need an ambulance, and the one road out must get congested in the morning and evening. How do suburbs get designed like that?

  13. Typical LIB stuff up. How come no one vetted the candidate ??.This is a seat they ought to have in the bag, because of the east-west. Now maybe not..

  14. I think Briffa went out too hard too early. Briffa actually started his campaign months ago and many locals have really, really tired of it. His massive amount of huge, gaudy blue signs, advertising cars and advertising trailers have been invading the leafy environment of Eltham for just too long now. You’ve got to give the guy credit for trying though. How much is all this costing!

  15. This week Briffa was invited by Jon Faine (Radio 774) to come on air to explain the ‘suspicious’ and secretive land/apartment deal – but Briffa refused the invitation.

Comments are closed.