ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
Steph Key, since 1997.
Geography
Inner south-western Adelaide. Ashford covers Ashford, Glandore, Clarence Park, Plympton, Camden Park and a number of other suburbs.
Redistribution
The boundaries of Ashford changed substantially, losing Richmond, North Plympton, Cowandilla and Marleston in the north and gaining Novar Gardens and Camden Park in the west and other areas in the south. The ALP’s margin was cut from 4.9% to 0.6%.
History
The seat of Ashford has existed since 1997, and was a successor to the electorate of Hanson, which existed from 1970 to 1997.
Heini Becker won the seat of Hanson for the Liberal Party in 1970. Becker left Hanson in 1993 following a redistribution that made the seat more favourable to the ALP. Becker won the seat of Peake off the ALP, and retired in 1997.
Despite the redistribution, the Liberal Party’s Stewart Leggett won Hanson in 1993.
In 1997, Hanson was renamed Ashford. Leggett was challenged by the ALP’s Steph Key, who won with 55.6% of the two-party vote. Key was appointed to the shadow ministry in 1997, and became a minister after the 2002 election.
Key was re-elected in 2006, but was dropped from the ministry, and has served on the backbench ever since.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Steph Key is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Terina Monteagle. The Greens are running Christiana Griffith. Family First are running Robyn Munro.
- Christiana Griffith (Greens)
- Robyn Munro (Family First)
- Steph Key (Labor)
- Terina Monteagle (Liberal)
- Steve Sansom (F.R.E.E. Australia)
Assessment
Ashford is one of the most marginal Labor seats in the state and will be very vulnerable.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steph Key | ALP | 9,218 | 43.5 | -8.9 |
| Penny Pratt | LIB | 8,220 | 38.7 | +10.9 |
| Jennifer Bonham | GRN | 2,806 | 13.2 | +3.8 |
| Robyn Munro | FF | 969 | 4.6 | -0.2 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steph Key | ALP | 11,625 | 54.8 | -10.4 |
| Penny Pratt | LIB | 9,588 | 45.2 | +10.4 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, south and west. All booths in Unley council area have been grouped in east, with all booths in West Torrens council area grouped in west. Those in Marion and Mitcham council areas have been grouped as south.
The ALP won in all three areas, ranging from 52.4% in the east to 56.6% in the west. The Greens vote varied from just under 8% in the west, to 15.4% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes | |
| East | 15.42 | 52.43 | 6,012 | 40.94 | |
| West | 7.94 | 56.62 | 5,048 | 34.38 | |
| South | 12.30 | 54.15 | 3,625 | 24.69 | |
| Other votes | 14.81 | 53.05 | 4,856 |
Here’s an interesting table from Mumble, with the percentages of voters who were redistributed in from other seats.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/sa_redistributions_2014/
Ashford has 33.85%, the highest in the state. In fact, the top five (all over 20%) are all Labor seats. That would have to hurt Labor here – Key’s personal vote counts for less than it otherwise would.
The other top seats on that list are:
Little Para (ALP 10.9%)
West Torrens (ALP 9.8%)
Elder (ALP 1.7%)
Newland (ALP 2.7%)
Elder has a similar problem – a large swing in 2010, made worse by a major redistribution cutting the Labor margin further. Despite the fact these two seats have only ever turned blue at the 1993 landslide, they could easily flip this time. Newland would also be very dicey (despite its margin going the other way). If two of those fall, there goes Labor’s majority.
My prediction: Likely Liberal gain, particularly with the new boundaries.
Prediction: LIB Gain
Not even a good candidate like Key, who won this seat off Liberals in the hung election of 1997, will fend off the Liberals this time.