Redcliffe by-election, 2014

February 22, 2014

Cause of by-election
Sitting member Scott Driscoll, elected in 2012 as a member of the Liberal National Party but sitting as an independent since March 2013, resigned from the Queensland Parliament on 19 November 2013, after the the Parliament’s Ethics Committee recommended his expulsion from the Parliament for contempt of Parliament in relation to fraud allegations. He has since been fined $90,000 by the Parliament.

Margin – LNP 10.1%

Geography
South-East Queensland. Redcliffe covers most of the Redcliffe peninsula in Moreton Bay local council area, specifically the suburbs of Kippa-ring, Redcliffe, Woody Point, Clontarf, Margate and Scarborough, as well as Moreton Island.

History
The seat of Redcliffe has existed since the 1960 election. It was dominated by conservative parties until 1989, and has been dominated by the ALP ever since.

The seat was first won in 1960 by Jim Houghton. He was first elected as an independent and after a brief stint as a Liberal he joined the Country Party in 1963. He held the seat until his retirement in 1979.

The seat was won at the 1979 by-election by Liberal candidate Terry White. White was appointed to the ministry in 1980. He became the leader of a group of Liberal MPs critical of Joh Bjelke-Petersen and their own party’s closeness to the Nationals. In 1983 he led a Liberal rebellion which resulted in his election as Liberal leader and the dissolution of the coalition. In the ensuing election a majority of Liberals lost their seats and the Nationals won a majority in their own right.

White stepped down as Liberal leader following the disastrous 1983 election and held Redcliffe until his retirement in 1989.

Ray Hollis won Redcliffe for the ALP in 1989. He became Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1998 and retired in 2005. This triggered the 2005 Redcliffe by-election. At the ensuing by-election the ALP lost the seat to Liberal candidate Terry Rogers, who won with an 8.4% swing.

Rogers only held the seat for one year, and lost at the 2006 election to the ALP’s Lillian van Litsenburg. She retained the seat at the 2009 state election.

In 2012, van Litsenburg lost to the LNP’s Scott Driscoll.  Driscoll had been president of the United Retail Federation, and his political career quickly came undone due to allegations he misled the Parliament over his business interests. He was suspended from the LNP in March, and resigned in November 2013 under the threat of expulsion.

Candidates
The LNP is running Kerri-Anne Dooley, who ran for Family First in Redcliffe in 2012. The ALP is running former federal member for Petire Yvette D’Ath, who lost her seat at the 2013 federal election. The Liberal Democratic Party, who are not registered for state elections in Queensland, are running Gabriel Buckley as an independent. Also running as independents are Len Thomas and Talosaga McMahon.

Assessment
The LNP government is substantially less popular than it was at the time of the last election, and when you factor in the circumstances of the vacancy, this seat could well be vulnerable. Having said that, a 10% swing will still be a big ask for the Labor Party. It’s also possible that the Palmer United Party will put in a strong effort – they are unlikely to win, but it’s hard to predict what a high PUP vote would do to the race.

2012 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Driscoll LNP 13,991 49.24 +14.94
Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 8,739 30.76 -12.26
Bevan Collingwood KAP 2,484 8.74 +8.74
Noel Clothier GRN 1,912 6.73 +0.61
Kerri Dooley FF 1,288 4.53 +1.91

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Driscoll LNP 15,427 60.10 +15.67
Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 10,242 39.90 -15.67
Polling places in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election. Kippa-Ring in green, Redcliffe in blue, Scarborough in yellow, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election. Kippa-Ring in green, Redcliffe in blue, Scarborough in yellow, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Redcliffe have been divided into four areas: from north to south along the coast, these are Scarborough, Redcliffe, and South, with Kippa-Ring lying inland.

The LNP won all four areas, with their LNP primary vote ranging from 45.8% in Redcliffe to 56.7% in Scarborough. The ALP vote ranged from 26% in Scarborough to 32.5% in Redcliffe.

The third-polling candidate came from Katter’s Australian Party. The KAP candidate’s vote ranged from 6.8% in Scarborough to 10.7% in the south.

The ECQ does not provide booth-level two-party-preferred figures. Estimates have been made, based on preference flows across the electorate. These estimates give the LNP a majority in all areas, ranging from 57.4% in Redcliffe to 66.5% in Scarborough.

Voter group ALP % LNP % LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
South 32.23 46.80 58.06 6314 22.22
Redcliffe 32.45 45.84 57.36 4767 16.78
Scarborough 26.05 56.68 66.51 4707 16.57
Kippa-Ring 31.37 47.83 59.11 4610 16.22
Other votes 31.00 49.63 60.07 8016 28.21
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
LNP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
LNP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
KAP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.
KAP primary votes in Redcliffe at the 2012 Queensland state election.

60 COMMENTS

  2. For once Unitary State and I agree. THe LNP will suffer a devastatindg defeat in Redcliffe. It is then up to some individual in LNP Parliamentary Party to challenge the worst leader in Austarlian Huistory since Gougth Whitlam or the LNP will suffer a similar defeat to Whitlam.

    THe LNP chose a leader who was unfit fotr office. His election defeated a incompetent government but did not make him for for office. He remains unfit for office and any LNP member who supports him is unfit for office.

    Reg Gulley who this morning in the Courier Mail was defending Newman has only a year to goi before we will take our revenge against lying false promises and evil economics. They cal blame Driscoll all they like. Their only chance is to go into Parliament on Monday and put Newman on the back bench. From their he can contemplate life as a drain manager.

    I warned Mr Gulley of this nearly two years ago. I for one never to put any of the LNP MLAs above ALP unless they send Newman back to the drains where he came from. IT is not DRiscoll that is being defeated in Radcliffe it is Newman.

    The Newman regime has failed to honor their promises on both socially and economically.; How does Kerri Ann Dooley feel about joining a party room that to a man voted to retain the cIvil Unions they promised to repeal. Family first my foot self serving gutless yes men whho lack a spine to stand up to Megalomania.

    Put Dooley last and recognize that in doing so they are standing up for honest government in Queensland.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  3. @ Andrew, with all due respect mate you gotta check your spelling before you publish, it’s really annoying reading some of mistake-ridden posts. As for putting Gough (a great man who tried to change this country for the better but had to fight a corrupt Qld Premier, a dodgy Senate and a couple of shonky ministers in his own government) in the same sentence as Newman is terrible. Newman is far worse than Gough. Let me correct what you really should be saying. “Newman and Tony Abbott are the worst leaders this nation/state have seen since Joh.” That’s better. In saying that though I fully agree with all your Newman points. Such a bad Premier.

  4. A by election is very different to a federal election .the people of redcliffe will be best served by an independent or by the liberal candidate as Campbell Newman is more likely to listen to them .why would he help the labour candidate achieve anything over the next year so that she can then say I did it for redcliffe.my union QNU in their rush to support labour have not considered what is best for me or for the people of redcliffe .One thing that really interests me is that yvette d’ath stood behind Craig Thompson for 4 years .his own union have said that they felt the labour federal government did everything they could to delay the investigation . The queensland government dealt with Scott Driscoll a lot quicker . Surely the people of Redcliffe have a hypocrite for a labour candidate

  5. A by election is very different to a federal election .the people of redcliffe will be best served by an independent or by the liberal candidate as Campbell Newman is more likely to listen to them .why would he help the labour candidate achieve anything over the next year so that she can then say I did it for redcliffe.my union QNU in their rush to support labour have not considered what is best for me or for the people of redcliffe .One thing that really interests me is that yvette d’ath stood behind Craig Thompson for 4 years .his own union have said that they felt the labour federal government did everything they could to delay the investigation . The queensland government dealt with Scott Driscoll a lot quicker . Surely it’s slightly hypocritically for labour to be crying foul over Driscoll and then put forward D’ath as their candidate

  6. I am also a nurse and there are people in Queensland health working that never worked before In the good ole days they came and collected a wage and the typical reply when you asked them for help was ” it’s not my job” We all knew of these characters A lot of staff are quite happy with some of the changes and those that are good at their jobs are not really worried. So a lot of QLD health staff secretly approve of certain changes .Kerrianne Dooley is a nurse and would have been well placed to get health issues in newmans ear .have the people of redcliffe thrown the baby out with the bath water?

  8. I haven’t been following this race as closely as the upcoming SA or TAS elections, so here’s my prediction: Labor gain.

  9. Campbell Newman’s comments towards people lobbying against him at today’s polling booths is laughable. What a hypocritical, comunistic little man he is. Bit by bit we are losing democracy under his govern and he appears to becoming more like Hitler every day. He is a contradiction in terms. A condescending and toxic little man who appears to have no interest in real people. Shame on you Campbell Newman for your uncaring, communist and pompous attitudes and behaviour

  10. Using Antony Greens the seats liosted below would be lost to LNP with a uniform Redcliffe 16% swing. My prediction is a swing of 10% against LNP in 2015 election going about 50% to ALP and 50% to Conservative minors and independents.

    A 16% SWing is a loss of 45 Seats a 10% swing a loss of 30 Seats. .

    Of course the swing will not be uniform and will be much greatrer in the bush than in the city
    Liberal National (78)

    SEAts that NEwman Stands to lose / Marguiin needed to lose
    Bulimba 0.1%
    Waterford 1.0%
    Yeerongpilly 1.4%
    Lytton 1.6%
    Greenslopes 2.5%
    Sandgate 2.9%
    Nudgee 3.1%
    Cook 3.4%
    Capalaba 3.7%
    Ipswich 4.2%
    Logan 4.8%
    Townsville 4.8%
    Brisbane Central 4.9%
    Mount Coot-tha 5.4%
    Morayfield 5.6%
    Ashgrove 5.7%
    Keppel 6.4%
    Thuringowa(1.4 v KAP) 6.6%
    Stafford 7.1%
    Ipswich West 7.2%
    Cairns 8.9%
    Algester 9.1%
    Barron River 9.5%
    Ferny Grove 9.5%
    Murrumba 9.5%
    Stretton 9.6%
    Toowoomba North 9.6%
    Redcliffe 10.1%
    Mundingburra 10.2%
    Sunnybank 10.2%
    Whitsunday 10.7%
    Burleigh 11.0%
    Mansfield 11.1%
    Mirani 11.2%
    Broadwater 11.3%
    Albert 11.9%
    Pumicestone 12.1%
    Kallangur 12.4%
    Everton 13.2%
    Pine Rivers 13.7%
    Chatsworth 13.9%
    Southport 14.7%
    Springwood 15.4%

    Prior to 2009 State Election the then Newly formed LNP held a retreat at Surf Air on the Sunshine Coast and discussed an imaginery pair of voters Kate and Matt who voted for JOhn Howard in 1996 because thay thought Keating was out of touch, and again in 1998 (because they thought Beazly was weak) and again in 2001 (becausre they were concerned about national security and again in 2004 because they did not trust Latham but voted for Rudd in 2007 because they didn’t think Rudd would increase interest rates and they liked what he said about education” At a State level Kate and Matt “voted for BEattie since 2001 and, whilst they did’t like Anna BLigh as much, they voted for her last time because they were concerened about losing their jobs under Springborg”

    How did Kate and Matt vote in Redcliffe and do LNP really think that someone who feared Springborg will make the same mistake a second time with Newman. Their only hope is to get rid of Newman in the next week or so.

    Reg Gulley and many others must know that Kate and Matt along with me are waiting for them with a ballot paper. UNtill 2004 I had always thought LNP were preferable to ALP. So I am probaly one of the Matt’s. I know that many of the people I worked with in 2009 were Newmanised in 2012. They will remember the experience for the rest of their lives. THe LNP only hope is to Newmanise Newman

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

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